313
FXUS64 KMOB 042346
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A rather unsettled pattern will continue through the first half of
the week as a surface low moves north across Louisiana and gets
absorb by a larger upper trough over the western US. We will be
positioned on the eastern or dirty side of this system with deep
southerly flow developing across the area. Expect a plume of deep
tropical moisture to surge northward tonight and into the day on
Sunday with PWATS likely approaching 2 inches across the area.
Steadily increasing ascent will spread northward throughout the
day on Sunday and persisting into Monday. Periods of rain with
isolated pockets of heavy rain will be likely Sunday and Monday
helping slowly wittle away at increasing drought conditions.
Expect rain to begin sometime late tonight into early Sunday
morning and just persist on and off through Monday. Other than
some rain the next 48 hours, concerns will mainly just remain at
the coastline with high surf, minor coastal overwash and High risk
of rip currents.

By the middle of the week high pressure will begin to retrograde
westward across the deep south leading to some drying of
conditions across the area. Rather zonal flow will develop by
Wednesday as the upper ridge flattens out and some moisture is
expected to linger across the area. However, subsidence from the
upper ridge should limit any rain chances to the more standard
isolated to scattered storms along any seabreeze that does develop
each afternoon. Some increased activity could occur further
inland as a weak upper trough attempts to dig into the eastern
CONUS Thursday and Friday. Overall, the second half of the week
will likely be a return to warm temperatures and dry conditions.
Expect highs to steadily climb into the upper 80s by Wednesday
into Thursday. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions persist through the evening. Rain will continue to
develop over the northern Gulf this evening and will slowly
spread northward toward the coast through the overnight and early
morning hours on Sunday. Flight categories should steadily reduce
to MVFR/IFR by mid-morning as heavier rain and a few storms move
toward the terminals. Northeasterly to easterly winds around 10
knots with gusts to 20 knots will ramp up through the evening and
persist through the rest of the TAF cycle. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf through the
weekend as strong easterly flow persists at the base of a strong
surface ridge across the southeast states. Seas will continue to
range from 7 to 9 feet well offshore. Winds will gradually
decrease Monday with seas slowly subsiding. A moderate to
occasionally strong easterly to northeasterly flow will follow
through midweek. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  79  70  83  69  86  70  88 /  50  80  60  70  10  30  10  20
Pensacola   72  81  72  84  72  85  73  87 /  50  80  60  60  10  30  10  20
Destin      72  82  72  84  72  86  73  86 /  40  70  50  50  10  20  10  10
Evergreen   67  83  69  86  67  89  67  90 /  20  60  30  40  10  20  10  10
Waynesboro  67  81  68  82  67  86  68  88 /  20  50  40  40  10  20  10  20
Camden      67  82  67  84  67  87  67  88 /  10  40  30  30  10  10  10  20
Crestview   68  82  69  84  68  87  67  89 /  20  70  40  50  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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