278
FXUS64 KMOB 231719
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1119 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1112 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Some strong to potentially severe storms are possible Tuesday
   afternoon into Tuesday evening near and west of the I-65
   corridor.

 - A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for much of the
   marine area Wednesday night through Thursday morning,
   potentially lingering into late week for the offshore waters.

 - A Moderate rip current risk exists for local beaches Tuesday
   and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Dry conditions are expected over the area through Monday while an
active pattern begins to unfold over the western and central
states. An upper low near the 4 Corners evolves into an upper trof
over the southern and central Plains on Monday, then ejects off
across the interior eastern states through Tuesday while a
Canadian system leads to a large upper trof developing over the
central states. The upper trof progresses across the eastern
states with an associated surface low meanwhile bringing a strong
cold front through the forecast area late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Ahead of the frontal passage, the Plains system
which ejects off into the eastern states appears to bring a region
of weak to possibly moderate deep layer lift across the
northwestern half of the forecast area on Tuesday, potentially
into the evening hours. The 850 mb jet will initially be 30-40
knots over this portion early Tuesday morning but then diminishes
to around 20 knots by the early afternoon. While MLCAPE values
increase to 500-1000 J/kg on Tuesday for much of the area,
potentially around 1000 J/kg over southeast MS and interior
southwest AL, the timing of the best instability occurs when shear
values are diminishing fairly significantly.

This appears to diminish the potential for strong to severe storm
development, but considering the uncertainty with the pattern will
maintain current messaging in the Key Messages. High rain chances
shift across the forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday night as the
front approaches then moves through. Have gone with slight chance
to chance pops on Wednesday generally along and east of I-65, then
dry conditions follow for Thursday through Saturday. A large
positively tilted upper trof evolves over the western half of the
CONUS over the weekend, with a series of shortwaves set to move
across the forecast area by Sunday along with a frontal boundary
approaching from the Plains. Will have chance pops return to the
forecast for Sunday and will monitor this upcoming system which
could eventually bring active weather to the forecast area.

Lows tonight range from around 50 well inland to the mid/upper 50s
at the coast then trend warmer for Monday night to range from the
upper 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the coast. Much cooler
temperatures follow for Wednesday night and Thursday night in the
wake of the cold front, with lows Thursday night ranging from the
lower 30s well inland to around 40 at the coast. Temperatures
moderate by Saturday night to range from the mid/upper 40s well
inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Highs on Monday and Tuesday
will be in the upper 70s to around 80, then trend much cooler by
Thanksgiving Day to range from the mid/upper 50s well inland to
the lower 60s closer to the coast. Daytime highs moderate to the
upper 60s to lower 70s by Sunday. A low risk of rip currents on
Monday will be followed by a moderate risk for Tuesday and
Wednesday, then a low risk follows for Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A deck of IFR/MVFR stratus has been pushing south over the
northwestern quarter of the forecast area. Am expecting this deck
to slowly erode this afternoon and remain just north of area TAF
sites. Patchy fog is possible tonight. Guidance is painting
coverage north of area TAF sites, and remaining at MVFR levels.
Northerly winds of 5 to 10 knots today are expected to become
light overnight, the become easterly around 5 to 10 knots by late
morning Monday.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Light northerly winds become southeasterly on Monday with a light to
moderate southerly flow following for Tuesday. Winds shift out of
the northwest to north on Wednesday as a cold front moves through
with a moderate to strong offshore flow for Wednesday night through
Friday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for
most of the marine area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and
may potentially be needed for the 20-60 nm portion Thursday
afternoon into Friday morning. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  53  77  64 /   0   0   0  20
Pensacola   78  58  76  67 /   0   0   0  20
Destin      77  59  75  66 /   0   0   0  30
Evergreen   79  50  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
Waynesboro  71  49  77  60 /   0   0   0  40
Camden      74  49  78  58 /   0   0   0  20
Crestview   79  50  78  61 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$