006
FXUS64 KMOB 190535
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1235 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Upper ridging settles in across the region this weekend with light
flow aloft. Gradually, the ridge shifts to the north/northwest
allowing for increasing northeasterly to easterly flow aloft to
become established by mid to late week. This in turn allows for a
subtle shortwave to transit across the gulf coast states from
east to west by mid to late week and for a weak surface low to
form off the southeast U.S. coastline by late week.

Given the aforementioned ridging building in, rain chances dwindle
quite a bit today into Sunday. Only isolated to scattered
coverage of showers and storms are expected today, becoming
generously isolated on Sunday. As ridging shifts north/northwest
a bit and the aforementioned trough/low enter the picture, rain
chances start to increase quickly to scattered by the middle of
next week and perhaps even locally numerous by late next week.
Forecast temperatures warm up significantly as we head into the
Sunday through Wednesday timeframe, with afternoon highs warming
into the middle to upper 90`s each day, isolated spots reaching
100 degrees. Northerly flow will be established across the area
into early next week which should allow for decent afternoon
mixing of dewpoints into the lower to middle 70`s for most
locations. Despite this, they remain high enough where in
combination with expected high temperatures the heat indices will
be in the 105 to 110 range nearer the coast Sunday through
Tuesday. Interior portions of the forecast area should stay in the
100 to 105 range those days. The forecast heat indices and
associated heat risk values will likely require heat advisories
for at least coastal counties, particularly Monday and Tuesday.
The rip current risk should diminish today to a Moderate risk
before becoming a low risk tonight. The rip current risk increases
to a Moderate risk again Sunday night into Monday for Florida
Panhandle beaches. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

VFR conditions prevail throughout the period with winds becoming
light overnight. Showers and storms may develop overnight (after
09z) near the terminals, but did not include prob30s as confidence
was too low in the development. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

No marine impacts are expected outside of shower and storms. A
light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow prevails through
Monday, then becomes westerly to northwesterly Monday night into
Tuesday night. A light to moderate southeasterly flow develops
Wednesday afternoon lingering through late week. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  91  75  93  75  95  75  96 /  20  60  10  40  10  40  10  50
Pensacola   79  91  78  93  78  95  79  96 /  10  50  10  30  10  40  30  60
Destin      81  92  80  93  81  94  81  95 /  10  40  10  30  10  40  30  60
Evergreen   74  94  73  96  74  97  74  97 /  10  40  10  20  10  30  20  40
Waynesboro  72  92  72  95  74  96  73  97 /  20  40   0  20   0  20  10  20
Camden      74  92  73  94  74  94  74  95 /  20  30  10  20  10  30  10  30
Crestview   74  93  74  96  75  97  75  97 /  10  50   0  40   0  60  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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