749
FXUS63 KMPX 100455
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1055 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry week ahead with only a few flurries today.

- Today is the worst of the cold with a warming trend through
  the week with near to above normal temperatures mid to late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cold air advection will be the story for the rest of the day.
This is thanks to a very strong jet overhead, trough to our
east, and surface high to our west. This provides for cold air
moving in at almost every level. This has brought today`s
temperatures down to what is normal for mid December. Also as
is common in these strong CAA scenarios we have seen elevated
winds and snow flurries. Due to the positioning of the upper
level forcing there could be some heavier flurries or even snow
showers over parts of western Wisconsin tonight. No
accumulation expected in flurries with maybe up to around an
inch in parts of Rusk County, WI.

As this whole system moves farther east and causes significant
impacts near Lake Michigan the CAA setup we saw today comes to
an end. This will allow for a warming trend in the early part of
the week with normal to above normal temperatures by Tuesday.
Looking at NBM percentiles these temepratures stay consistent
though the end of the week before a lot more variability starts
up for next weekend. This variability is associated with the
next system and our next chance for precipitation. The bulk of
the week looks quiet as we see a ridge build in to start the
week which is then followed by northwest flow. There are a few
shortwaves in this flow, but moisture is generally lacking.
This lacking moisture is from temperatures returning to normals
and no good moisture source. It is not until the previously
mentioned, larger system moves into the Midwest next weekend
that PoPs start to increase. Looking into global ensembles there
remains significant spread on the track and therefore impact of
this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The last of the -SN will be gone before the start of the period
with cloud cover eroding over the area as well. A few lingering
SCT clouds are possible, however we may see brief periods of
FEW100 to SKC through around 12z, at which point cloud cover
returns. FEW050 is possible from roughly 15-22z with some fair
weather cumulus, lifting towards 150 by 00z and becoming
BKN/OVC100-150 level CIGS by 02-03z. Winds will continue to
shift towards 240-270 and weaken below 10kts for the first 6
hours of the period, weakening further below 5kts by the final
6 hours.

KMSP...Despite recent METARS still showing -SN, elected to keep
it out of the start of the TAF period as radar echoes look to
move south of the terminal with cloud cover generally eroding
for the start of the period. Otherwise no major changes from the
00z with some lower mid level cumulus during the day tomorrow
and VFR mid level CIGS returning late in the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW to SE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH