315
FXUS63 KMPX 111050
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
550 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today over western and
  central MN with low humidity and breezy conditions.

- Breezy again Sunday with scattered rain showers. However,
  widespread, soaking rain is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Cloud cover over SD and NE will gradually move northeast, slowly
covering our CWA throughout today as an upper-level trough crosses
the Rockies. A strong, southerly LLJ will develop today across the
Northern Plains in response the nearing trough, causing WAA and
strong southeasterly surface winds over MN. Highs this afternoon
will reach the mid to upper 60s for the CWA. Meanwhile, winds will
strengthen as one goes west with western MN seeing sustained values
near 20 MPH and gusts to 25-35 MPH this afternoon into tonight. This
will bring the potential for elevated fire weather conditions as
humidities during this afternoon will fall to 25-30% over western
and central MN. Building cloud cover could limit how warm
temperatures get this afternoon, but a couple hour window of
elevated fire weather seems possible today. Have decided to issue a
Special Weather Statement for the elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon for portions of western and central MN.

CAMs favor the development of multiple rounds of rain showers over
the Dakotas and NE throughout today. The WAA and upper-level
diffluence downstream of the aforementioned trough are what drive
the QPF. This activity tries to travel northeast into our region,
but forecast soundings show a good amount of low-level dry air over
western MN. Thus, rain struggles to get a footing in western MN
until early Sunday morning and have delayed the arrival of PoPs in
western MN to reflect this. Eventually, rain showers should be over
western MN by mid-Sunday morning. CAMs want to push this activity
into central and eastern MN by noon, but do show some dissipation
into the early afternoon. Almost like a lull in the precipitation
that we`re accustomed to seeing in the summer. The enhanced winds
will also spread area-wide while highs in the afternoon warm into
the mid 60s to mid 70s. It isn`t until the trough and cold front
arrive towards Sunday evening that rain becomes more widespread
across the CWA. Numerous showers should sweep through our region,
exiting to our east by early Monday morning. Guidance QPF still
doesn`t look too impressive with at most 0.25-0.5" in western MN
while a tenth or two is possible elsewhere.

We`ll cool down to start the work week after the cold frontal
passage. Highs by Tuesday are forecast in the 50s while lows Monday
night and Tuesday night will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Frost
would be possible during these nights, especially over central MN.
However, temperatures look to slowly rebound throughout the latter
half of next week, reaching potentially 10 degrees above normal by
Friday. This will be due to southwesterly flow downstream of a
positively-tilted trough over the west coast building a ridge over
the central CONUS. Warm air and moisture advection will occur into
the Central and Northern Plains, warming temperatures and bringing
chances for rain. Currently, next Thursday and Friday are our best
opportunities for rainfall as the trough over the west coast moves
east across the Rockies. While it seems a more organized system is
possible later next week from this trough, considerable model spread
still exists given it`s so far in advance. 30-50% PoPs are smeared
from Thursday to Friday and we`ll have to wait for model spread to
decrease as we get closer to that time period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR expected the entire period with mid-level clouds building
in from the west today through tonight. Cigs will drop to
between 6000-10000 feet by the end of the period in western MN.
For AXN, have added a PROB30 for -SHRA from 06-12Z Sunday as
profile moistening and continual lift could allow for some
showers. Southeasterly winds will greatly strengthen throughout
the forecast period with the highest values in western MN.
Here, gusts this afternoon will reach 20-30 knots and remain
steady through the overnight. The increased winds will spread
east as we go through tonight. South-southeasterly LLWS of 40-45
knots is also expected at RWF and MKT during tonight as a strong
low-level jet moves overhead.

KMSP...Southeasterly winds will gust to near 20 knots this
afternoon and then slowly increase tonight into Sunday morning.
Gusts could reach 30 knots (sustained 15-20 knots) by noon
Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA likely aftn/evening. Wind SE 15-20G30kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG