304
FXUS63 KMPX 142308
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
508 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temps this afternoon, with cooling temperatures behind
a cold front overnight. Seasonal temperatures for the rest of the
week.

- Sprinkles/drizzle possible tonight and a chance for rain/snow
  Monday into Tuesday. Accumulations should remain light with
  low impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

We have officially broken the record high temperature at MSP as of
2pm at 72 compared to the previous daily record of 71, with St.
Cloud thus far with a high of 66 compared to a record of 68 and Eau
Claire also at 66 with a record of 70. There are some high clouds
drifting across southwestern MN towards the Twin Cities and thus our
rapid warming is likely over although we may still end up warming
another degree or so, so be sure to check the official climate
results that we run at around 4:30 & 6:30 pm today for the official
final temperature which you can find within the climate section on
our website. Given the temperature forecast for the next week and as
we continue to move closer to the winter months, this is likely to
be our last 70 degree day of the year, so find any excuse you can to
get outside and enjoy it before we have to wait several months for
this kind of warmth to return! The clouds will continue to increase
overnight ahead of a cold front that will be diving southeast across
the area from roughly midnight to 7am which will also drop
temperatures behind it, in addition to chances for isolated light
rain showers early tomorrow morning. Most of the area is expected to
remain dry with a relatively dry forecast sounding profile, however
a few areas may end up a few hundredths of an inch favoring central
Minnesota.

High pressure and subsidence is expected behind the cold front which
will lock in seasonal temperatures for the following few days
through this weekend as highs look to be in the mid 40s to low 50s
and lows drop below freezing everywhere by Sunday morning with the
following week showing plenty of 40s for highs and mid to upper 20s
for lows, which is almost exactly average for this time of year.
Believe it or not we are only about 5 weeks away from the Winter
Solstice marking the shortest day of the year, with our temperatures
likewise following the further decrease in daylight over the next 5
weeks. The high pressure will move off early next week as a series
of potential systems develops over the Rockies and moves towards the
central CONUS, with the upper level jet pattern looking to keep the
surface low pressure centers south of the region. The result for us
will be lower chances for precipitation on the northern side of
these potential systems, which could also introduce multiple
precipitation types depending on the time of day where shower
activity arrives. Overall, we do not anticipate significant impacts
throughout the week with only minor precipitation if it occurs,
however we could be looking at not only rain but also chances for
snow and even some mixed p-types as we move closer. The best overall
chances will be Monday followed by Thursday into Friday with midweek
showing another bout of surface high pressure keeping us dry. The
beyond 7 day forecast shows quite a bit of uncertainty, with the
various ensemble guidance showing significant spread in both timing
and intensity of precipitation heading towards the Thanksgiving
holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A cold frontal passage during the first 08-10 hours of the TAF
will result in shifting winds, LLWS, and a small chance for
light rain showers that are too low to be mentioned within the
TAF itself. CIGS will stay up near 120-150 with BKN/OVC as the
front passes, becoming SCT and eventually FEW/SKC250 by the end
of the period. Winds begin from 170-200, shifting towards
240-270 by 06-08z as the front arrives, eventually reaching
300-330 by the end of the period and increasing to
10-15G20-25kts after 18z.

KMSP...The chance for -SHRA as the front passes from 05-10z is
less than 20 percent and was thus kept out of the TAF, however a
few sprinkles are possible with temperatures too warm to
consider any frozen precipitation. LLWS will be the other main
concern from start of TAF through around 05z when the front
arrives due to a strengthening low level jet that weakens as the
front moves through. Otherwise we can expect VFR CIGS eventually
dissipating after 18z, becoming FEW250/SKC after 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc -RASN/MVFR late. Wind NE 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -RASN/MVFR early. Wind E 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH