452
FXUS63 KMPX 282056
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
256 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A long duration snow event begins tonight & continues through
  early Sunday morning. Several inches of snowfall accumulation
  are expected, with the heaviest amounts of 6-10" across
  southern Minnesota.

- Well-below normal temperatures arrive after the snow on SUnday
  and persist through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Forecast remains on track for a long duration snow event
beginning tonight across western Minnesota & continuing into
the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday. Surface observations
already show a few snow reports over eastern South Dakota &
northwest Iowa, although it will still take a few more hours for
snow to overcome the dry air & begin accumulating over
southwest Minnesota. Snow will spread across southwest &
southern Minnesota this evening, followed by a likely lull in
the snow for a few hours during the early morning hours. The
snow then spreads farther north & east into central Minnesota &
western Wisconsin through Saturday morning as the warm-air
advection & isentropic ascent become more pronounced to the
north of the surface low tracking through the mid-Mississippi
valley. The snow will lighten through the evening and end from
west to east overnight saturday into Sunday as the warp-around
region of the low moves off to the east.

Because the surface low is tracking so far south of our area,
this event is shaping up as one of our "classic" winter storms,
rather as a long-duraton snow event where 12-24 hours of light
to moderate snow could still add up to several inches. The
heaviest amounts of 6-10" are expected across southern
Minnesota, where the chances of seeing 12+ hours of snowfall
are most likely. Farther north into the Twin Cities metro &
western Wisconsin, we may not see much in the way of snowfall
accumulation until Saturday morning, which will limit amounts to
2-5" (higher farther south). Even farther north into central
Minnesota, only a few hours of light snow will keep
accumulations under an inch or two. While the snow is not
expected to be heavy at any particular time, disruptions to
travel are expected Saturday given the snowfall accumulation &
holiday weekend. If possible, plan on postponing trips to Sunday
after the snow has ended & roads will be clear.

After the snow ends, broad canadian high pressure moves into
the region along with well-below normal temperatures. Lows will
depend on the snowpack in place, but will likely be around zero
with daytime highs only in the teens to low 20s. The cold
pattern remains in place through the week with an even colder
surge of Arctic air expected later in the week. Precipitation
chances look low, with some flurries or light snow possible
with the intrusions of cold air later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Aviation related weather concerns remain low through the
remainder of the daylight hours. Generally VFR with light winds,
though a slow moving MVFR stratus deck between 2-3k feet
remains over RNH/EAU late this morning.

The forecast focus will shift to an incoming long duration
light snow event for the start of the weekend. Leaned on latest
hi-res guidance to adjust arrival times of the first snowflakes
this evening/overnight via PROB30s. Snow will come in two
general waves: 1) the first batch of light snow is forecast to
arrive at RWF late this afternoon and spread east towards MKT
after 00z. Northeast expansion of the snow band will introduce
flakes at AXN/STC/MSP near/after 06z. 2) A secondary push from
the south will bring heavier snowfall rates (0.5/hr) starting
after daybreak and lifting north through the end of the period.
This is the period when visibility will be most greatly reduced,
with rates that will likely yield visibility below 1-2 miles.

Cigs will gradually lower with the arrival of the initial wave
of snow showers. It`s likely that IFR or lower visibility will
accompany the secondary push and will stick around the longest
across the southern MN terminals RWF/MKT. Winds will be light
through the night before increasing out of the ENE through
tomorrow afternoon. The bulk of the accumulating snow will occur
just beyond our 24-hr TAF windows, with total accumulations of
3-6" at RWF/MKT, 2-5" at MSP/EAU, 1-4" at RNH, and up to an
inch or so at AXN.

KMSP...Main adjustment to the 18z TAF was to slightly delay the
onset time of VFR -SHSN via the PROB30. Anticipate
flurries/light snow for for a while after onset, with little
accumulation through daybreak. Snowfall rates will increase
Saturday morning, with the heaviest rates for this event
(0.5/hr) set to arrive late morning and continue through the
afternoon. MVFR cigs and IFR visibility will be the theme during
the period of accumulating snow. Winds turn NNE and may gust
between 15-20 knots tomorrow afternoon. Total snow accumulation
between 2-5" expected by late tomorrow evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     Saturday night for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Renville-Sibley-
     Swift-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Saturday night for Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-
     McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-Scott-Washington-Wright.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     Saturday night for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for Goodhue-Le Sueur-Rice.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Strus