666
FXUS63 KMPX 182307
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
507 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and mild period expected with temperatures 5-10
  degrees above normal through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

As the last of the rain/snow mix exits east, we shift back to a
relatively quiet stretch of weather under mostly zonal flow
aloft. A shortwave will pass to our north Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing a slight chance for rain to portions of
central MN and northwest WI along a cold front. Forecast
soundings suggest that dry air above 700mb may limit cloud ice
formation, which would result in a lower ceiling for any rain in
an environment where QPF is only in the hundredths at best.

Ensemble guidance is fairly uniform, suggesting persistent
highs and lows roughly 5-10 degrees above normal all the way
through at least the weekend. A couple strong cyclones form off
the Rockies, but they should stay closer to the Gulf than to us
with cutoff flow stretching as far south as Mexico.

The first real sign of a big shakeup to the pattern does not
come until around Thanksgiving Day. Ensemble mean temperatures
drop about 5-10 degrees below normal, with the potential for
northwest flow to develop aloft. This will be the period to
watch, but for now it should be a quiet late fall week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Mainly MVFR to begin with as satellite shows a thick bank of
stratus which is not looking to move from where it currently is,
leaving only STC/AXN at FEW250/SKC and VFR to start. All sites
will stay MVFR for most of the period, with a period of IFR
possible beginning after 12z through around 18-21z at which
point CIGS will slowly lift back to MVFR and eventually VFR by
end of the period.

KMSP...Satellite shows the BKN025 stratus deck solidifying over
the airport rather than moving out, so elected to keep the
prevailing as MVFR instead of introducing a period of VFR to
begin with. A period of near IFR is expected after 14z,
improving by around 19-20z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S to W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH