853
FXUS63 KMPX 240448
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog likely across southern MN/western WI
  overnight through Monday morning.

- Chance of rain showers Monday, followed by a transition to
  snow Tuesday into early Wednesday. Potential for a few inches
  of snow accumulation is increasing across central MN.

- Combination of falling snow and strong winds will create slow travel
  conditions across central MN Tuesday PM into early Wednesday.

- Much colder with additional snow chances later this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

For the fog/stratus streaming north across Iowa right now, we`ve
seen the HRRR backing away from how aggressive it is with
bringing this moisture into the area late tonight and will
probably have to start pulling back a bit on the low clouds in
the 6z TAFs. It`s now Monday evening when the HRRR really
starts getting soupy, with a boundary/weak surface low over the
MPX area.

Looking ahead to Tuesday briefly, we are seeing a bit of a
southern shift in several models with where the axis of heaviest
precip (snow) falls. We`re seeing a couple of camps for where
the axis of heaviest snow ends up. One from roughly Fargo to
Duluth (current forecast falls here), with another cluster down
closer to Morris over to Mora for where the axis of heaviest
snow falls. Bottom line, don`t be surprised if in the morning
you see the Winter Storm Watch getting dragged down a bit deeper
into central Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Gorgeous November Afternoon...It`s hard to top this afternoon`s mild
and sunny weather this late in the calendar year! The warmth can be
attributed to the expansion of a mid-level thermal ridge advecting
925mb T`s of 8-10C in from the southwest. Surface temperatures are
on track to top out in the mid 50s across much of MN, with locations
along the Buffalo Ridge set to climb into the upper 50s, perhaps
near 60! Record highs are within reach at MSP (55-1905) and STC (53-
2021). The beautiful weekend weather takes a turn starting tonight
and the script will continue to change in a more wintry direction
for the remainder of the forecast period. It all starts with the
approach of an upper-low that is currently spinning over the Four
Corners region. Not much change in the anticipated evolution of this
feature, as guidance continues to depict an eastward track across
the Great Plains and then shearing out within the upper flow over
the Great Lakes. Anomalous moisture advection is underway east of
the upper-low, which is depicted by low stratus/fog on visible
satellite across CO/KS/MO. The moisture plume, characterized by
PWATs ~200% of normal, will lift northward towards to Upper Midwest
tonight. On the leading edge of the moisture plume will be a
widespread bank of low stratus/dense fog that will likely advect at
least into southern MN, if not farther north through the night.
We`ll monitor the latest trends and roll with a fog headline as
needed. Forcing from the upper-low will slide across the Midwest
Monday and continued isentropic ascent will support rain showers
across eastern MN/western WI. Latest guidance has continued to trend
eastward, so our highest PoPs are confined along and east of a line
from Freeborn (MN) to Barron (WI).

Winter Weather Maker Tuesday into Wednesday...Attention turns to a
longwave trough which is forecast to come ashore in the Pacific
Northwest tomorrow and then deepen as is slides east over the Great
Plains heading into Tuesday. A 500mb low is forecast to dig
southeast across the Dakotas Monday night and strengthen into a
closed low (with a slight negative tilt) over MN/WI by Tuesday
night. At the surface, a ~1004mb low over central MN is forecast to
undergo cyclogenesis and deepen to a stronger ~990s mb low over Lake
Superior by Wednesday morning. In response, strong CAA will usher in
much colder air allowing for a transition from rain to snow within
the system`s deformation band of precipitation. The placement of the
closed upper-low is key in defining where the heaviest band of
precipitation, supported by a TROWAL, will set up. Model
consensus continues to suggest the core of the closed low will
pass over east central MN/west central WI, which places the
greatest axis of accumulating snow across north central MN
(Mainly across WFO`s FGF/DLH`s forecast area). A Winter Storm
Watch has been issued by those neighboring WFO`s, which ends
along our northern border. Of note, the AIFS guidance has
consistently run slightly to the south of the consensus blend
and there are several 12z deterministic solutions that have
trended in that direction. Should this trend continue, it`s
possible that later forecast shifts may need to consider a Watch
across our northern tier of counties, say from Douglas to
Kanabec.

With the big pieces out of the way, let`s discuss the anticipated
timeline and snowfall expectations. Following a slight break in rain
chances, we should see an increase in rain across central/portions
of southern MN as Tuesday morning progresses. A transition from rain
to snow will occur first across western MN heading into Tuesday
afternoon. Forecast soundings at AXN indicate ~6-hour period where
strong omega forcing is aligned with a saturated DGZ. This supports
the potential for elevated snowfall rates, perhaps upwards of 0.5-
1"/hr. The key question is how efficient are the snowfall rates
following the p-type transition and the duration of heavier snowfall
(this is a faster moving storm system overall). The deformation band
of snow will move from west to east across central MN Tuesday
evening into early Wednesday. Locations north of I-94 feature the
highest probabilities for observing 2" or more of snow accumulation:
~60% at Alexandria & Little Falls, ~40% at St. Cloud & Mora. These
probabilities drop off significantly south of I-94, however we do
anticipate at least some snow across much of the forecast area as
the much broader precip shield slides through.

**Quick note, given the warm antecedent ground conditions and the
wetter nature to the snowfall ratios early in the event, we`d advise
those looking at model output online to utilize parameters such as
"depth change" versus running with one of the other model SLR
options. Depth change factors in the effects of melting &
compaction.**

All in all, this has the feel of an Advisory level event north of I-
94 -- it will not be a big snowmaker locally, though it will be the
first measurable snowfall of the Fall for at least portions of the
area and it also aligns with Holiday travel. Folks looking to head a
few hours to NW/N/NE of the Twin Cities Tuesday evening will like
have to contend with slow and slick travel, along with visibility
reductions due to the falling snow and wind gusts upwards of 35-45
mph. The winds will strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens and
will likely remain strong beyond the conclusion of falling snow.

Much Colder Later this Week (With Some Snow Possible)...Strong CAA
will usher in a much colder air mass Wednesday through the
remainder of the period. No major changes in the temperature
trends from the NBM, as highs in the 20s/lows in the teens
continue to be the theme for Thanksgiving through the upcoming
weekend. We are also monitoring the potential for a sneaky snow
system in the Friday/ Saturday timeframe as a wave or two slide
across the remnant baroclinic zone that aims to set up across
the central Plains. We have plenty of time to address this
potential over the upcoming week, though I like seeing the NBM
trend upward with chance PoPs for snow across southern MN Friday
PM/Saturday.

Chatter About a Storm in the Extended Period...As we`ve discussed
over the past couple of forecast shifts, there seems to be growing
interest in a potential "major storm system" late next weekend into
the start of the following week. We once again would advise caution
into buying into any single model solution, as it`s simply too far
out to have much confidence. What we do know is that long range
ensemble guidance has consistently advertised a longwave trough
digging over the western CONUS in the Sunday timeframe. However,
there are a number of ways the upper pattern may evolve beyond this,
so confidence at this distance is very low. We do encourage folks
who may be traveling following the Thanksgiving holiday to stay
tuned to the latest forecast information throughout the week as we
gain a better understanding of how the atmosphere may evolve.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Stratus/fog is making steady progress north across Iowa right
now and is about to hit the I-80 corridor. We have seen the 00z
models come in a little less aggressive with how far northwest
this stratus makes in Monday, with MSP looking to be on the edge
of seeing it. Where there is more confidence on fog/low stratus
is Monday night. We`ll have a weak boundary evolving into a
surface low over southern MN. High moisture content of the air
combined with the weak mixing and convergence should all work to
create stratus, fog, and maybe even some drizzle east of RWF &
STC Monday night.

KMSP...Low confidence in this TAF for MSP. The RAP now holds off
until Monday night (after 6z) to bring in the stratus, but the
HRRR shows this stratus bank flirting with the metro all day on
Monday. So Monday could easily be a VFR day or a day dominated
by IFR or lower cigs. Given the trend we`ve seen with the RAP,
we decided to lean the optimistic route with the 6z TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -RA changing to -SN in evening. Wind bcmg NW 20-25G35kts.
WED...MVFR cigs likely. Wind NW 10-20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...MPG