244
FXUS63 KMPX 170454
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1054 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wintry mix likely across southern Minnesota Monday night
  into Tuesday morning. Precipitation to stay south of I-94.

- Increasing confidence for a narrow band of accumulating snow
  Monday night into Tuesday morning. Localized accumulation of a
  few inches possible along the MN River Valley. Exact
  placement remains uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Another pleasant late Fall day has unfolded across the Upper
Midwest. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 40s with plenty of
sunshine and light winds. Satellite imagery reveals a broad area of
high clouds that are progged to slowly move into Minnesota from the
Dakotas overnight. Overnight lows fall into the low 30s and winds
turn calm. A complicated forecast begins for the Monday/Tuesday
period that will include rain & snow. A shortwave ejects into the
central Plains Monday and is forecast to move into the mid-
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Winds shift to the east-southeast on
Monday with temperatures warming back into the lower 40s. This will
lead to all initial precipitation falling as rain. Our shortwave`s
precipitation shield will slowly edge north into SW MN late Monday
afternoon and eventually into southern and central MN by Monday
night. A sharp cut off (gradient) is likely on the northern edge of
precipitation & there is increasing confidence that sets up
somewhere in the SW Twin Cities Metro. One change since yesterday is
the increased confidence of a narrow band of heavier precip. The
latest hi-res guidance advertises a band of heavier precipitation
setting up across southern Minnesota Monday night. While p-type
likely begins as rain, thermal profiles cool enough to transition to
a rain/snow mix, with locations under this heavier band turning to
all snow. There is no shortage of forcing with this band of precip
either. Cold air or the lack of cold air will be the limiting factor
for snow accumulations. There is some uncertainty as to what exactly
the thermal profile ends up as it`s razor thin for snow or rain...
most models maintain a fairly isothermal profile just cooler than
the 0c isotherm from the SFC up to 700mb or so. I suppose hi-res
models are half a degree C cooler above 850mb than global guidance
was yesterday - likely accounting for potential dynamic cooling
effects of heavier snow falling in the column. Unfortunately there
isn`t much dry air in this layer so the wet bulb temperature will
likely be the actual air temperature, limiting the room for how cool
the profile can get. There is potential for ice pellets to mix in
briefly too, but this is not a primary concern in the forecast at
this time. This leads to a messy scenario with snow ratios 7:1 to
9:1 range at the height of the event. Heavier snow rates could lead
to a quick, slushy accumulation of a few inches by Tuesday morning
before p-types mix back with rain as temperatures warm with sunrise.
Of course there is still uncertainty with the exact placement of
this feature with current guidance placing it along/near the MN
River Valley. Overall, more model solutions have trended to a more
snow dominated p-type Monday night despite the borderline thermal
profile. This makes sense all things considered. Hi-res guidance has
led to an increase in forecast confidence for higher, heavier QPF
amounts as alluded to earlier. QPF amounts of 0.50" to 0.75" are
likely under this band of heavier precip and I wouldn`t be surprised
to see some locations hit upwards of an inch. This is the added
benefit of having hi-res guidance in the forecast window. Travel
impacts are possible in the locations under the heaviest snow. The
combination of heavier snow rates & snow falling at night could lead
to accumulation on both grassy and paved surfaces. The limiting
factor will be that surface air temperatures hovering around 32f
(freezing). Given this complex forecast - it`s safe to expect finer
scale details to change over the next day. A half of degree could be
the difference between 2 inches of wet snow or a cold November rain.
It`s important to keep up to date with the latest forecast
information. We will work to refine the northern gradient cutoff,
the placement of the heaviest precipitation, and the snowfall &
rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours.

Precipitation tapers off by mid-morning Tuesday, leaving dry &
seasonable weather behind it through the remainder of the work week.
Highs will be in the lower 40s with overnight lows in the upper 20s
to lower 30s. Our confidence on the late week system remains low,
but it`s beginning to appear that it should stay south of our
forecast area. The latest EURO struggles to maintain an organized
sfc low as it moves northeast and shears out while the GFS doesn`t
really phase into anything organized at all. Ensembles do not offer
much chance for light QPF this far out either, supporting the
southern track and/or weaker system. Dry & seasonably warm
temperatures are likely to continue through the weekend with no
sustained cold air forecast yet.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Stubborn mid level stratus has been very slow to dissipate this
evening and looks to stick around based on model soundings such
that the beginning of the TAF has been revised to include mid
level VFR CIGS from MSP and westward, with only RNH/EAU
remaining relatively clear with only some high clouds moving
through. CIGS will increase in coverage and lower towards midday
as the forcing from what will eventually be chances for rain
begins to move in from the south/southwest. -RA chances begin
generally around 22-23z for RWF/MKT and an hour or two later for
MSP/STC/AXN, with CAMs showing the most likely beginning to
transition to -RASN being around 02-03z. The way the forecast is
expected to play out is to have a relatively narrow band of SN
which will reduce visibilities and lead to accumulations, right
now most likely for RWF/MKT with the northern edge potentially
reaching MSP from the time window of roughly 03-12z with
lingering precipitation quickly diminishing after 12z as forcing
departs.

Winds will begin light and variable, shifting towards 100-130
and increasing to around 10kts as the -RA arrives, with
occasional gusts to the low 20kts possible.

KMSP...Still an uncertain forecast based on where the most
likely zone for a band of snow sets up, which right now still
favors the Minnesota River Valley with MSP on the northern edge
where we could either end up dry, or end up with an inch or so
of slushy accumulation. The time window for any potential snow
would be 03-09z with -RA from 22-23z to 03z ahead of a
transition to snow. Surface temperatures will be near freezing
so we are not expecting a flash freeze type of scenario that
would lead to the rain freezing on pavement or aircraft, however
if the heavy snow band ends up farther north we could see
temperatures drop enough to cause some minor icing issues. Right
now the likelihood for that would be less than 15% given the
overall suite of guidance showing a higher likelihood towards
MKT, however it still remains enough of a percentage to keep it
in mind moving forward. Legitimate freezing rain is not
expected, nor is freezing drizzle expected to cause any icing,
it would purely be from high enough snow rates to cool the
ground enough to freeze up any lingering moisture, so if we do
not end up seeing snow we can expect to have zero icing issues.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR, IFR CIGS possible. Wind S 5kts.
THU...MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE to NW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind N 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...TDH