496
FXUS63 KMPX 152306
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
506 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures this weekend through the work week.

- Light rain and snow likely Monday night into Tuesday morning
  across southern Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Temperatures have been slow to fall behind the cold front this
afternoon with many locations in the low to mid 50s across southern
Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Cold air advection has brought in
northwest winds sustained 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. This
has made the mostly sunny skies & mid 50s feel a bit colder than it
really is. Fortunately, it`s still a pleasant day to get outside to
wrap up any outdoor projects or yard work before Winter arrives.
Drier air behind the fropa has led to relative humidity values to
dip into the lower 30 percent range this afternoon. This combined
with the gusty winds has led to a few areas of elevated fire wx
concerns but winds will decrease after sunset. Overnight lows will
bottom out around 30 with mostly clear skies. Sunday will offer
another pleasant day with light winds & temperatures in the mid
to upper 40s. Scattered mid to high clouds will build in late
afternoon and evening hours, otherwise it`ll be mostly sunny
during the day.

Our attention will turn to a shortwave trough that will eject out of
the Rockies into the Plains Monday afternoon. This shortwave will
move into Iowa by Tuesday morning and bring with it a band of light
precipitation. What we know so far is that it`s looking
increasingly likely that we`ll see light precipitation Monday
night up to central MN & western WI. There is also a strong
signal that there will be a sharp cutoff of precipitation on the
northern edge of this system. What remains uncertain is how far
north the precipitation will track & what exact precipitation
type it`ll be. Latest guidance supports a broad area of light
precipitation along & to the south of I-94 Monday night into
Tuesday morning. How much precipitation will fall you ask? The
European ensemble has 90% + probabilities of 0.10" QPF across S
MN with 60 to 80% in the Twin Cities. The gradient sets up
roughly along I-94 with probabilities tanking for locations
north of I-94. Same probabilities for 0.50" of QPF are low,
generally 20% or less, along I-90. Therefore there is higher
confidence in where the QPF amounts between 0.25" to 0.50".
Unfortunately there is less confidence on where it falls & where
that gradient sets up. This system remains at the end of the
range for our hi-res model suite so we`ll turn to the deterministic
models. These highlight a sharp gradient on the northern edge
with a significant drop off occurring over a few miles. The 12z
Euro keeps the heaviest precipitation (0.25" +) along and south
of the Minnesota River with lighter precipitation (0.10" to
0.20") up to I-94 corridor. The GFS is further north with the
heaviest QPF occurring along I-94 into the Twin Cities and W WI.
The Canadian is somewhere between but shifts the heaviest QPF
toward SE MN. Total QPF between 0.25" to 0.50" appears likely
somewhere across southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation
begins as light rain Monday evening, but light snow will mix in
after sunset. Precip type at some locations could remain a mix
of rain & snow. Others could see a switch to a wet slushy snow.
The limiting factor will be the thermal profiles aloft are quite
warm and follow the 0C isotherm from 700mb down to the surface.
This is not an ideal profile for accumulating snowfall, but cold
enough to include the mention of minor accumulations. If some
modest CAA can occur with the easterly 850mb flow, it could be
enough to cool the layer a degree or two more. This would likely
support a pure wet snow p-type than a mix. Regardless, this
will limit any accumulation to less than an inch of slushy snow
across S MN. Travel impacts should be minor Tuesday morning.

The remainder of the work week will feature dry conditions with
temperatures trending warmer than normal. High temperatures stay in
the mid 40s with lows in the lower 30s. Ridging builds into the
Upper Midwest behind the shortwave before another trough ejects into
the Plains late week. There is plenty of spread in guidance with
where this system tracks, but there is enough confidence to keep it
to a glancing blow as best as it stays off to the south & east of
the Upper Mississippi Valley. Any precipitation tied to the late
week system will likely be rain due to the warm air aloft & at the
surface.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Winds will occasionally gust to 20-25kts sustained at 10-15kts
at around 300 to begin the period, with both gusts and sustained
speeds diminishing quickly now that the sun has set. FEW250 VFR
will make way for SKC after 12z, with winds generally remaining
at 270-300 AOB 10kts. No significant weather concerns through
the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, -RASN/MVFR early. Wind E 10kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR. Wind SE 5kts.
THU...VFR, chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SE to NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...TDH