235
FXUS63 KMPX 020518
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1118 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold but otherwise relatively quiet weather this week.

- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, mainly tomorrow
evening into early Wednesday. Another chance for non-accumulating
flurries Thursday into Friday and again over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today has largely turned into a day of low level cloud cover
producing bursts of light snow/flurries which has led to some
visibility reductions mainly in southern Minnesota. Faribault has
been sitting below 5sm with -SN for the last few hours, so a few
reports of a tenth of an inch or two of new accumulation is not out
of the question, however webcams continue to show roadways remaining
clear. Satellite shows a brief pocket of clearing in west-central
Minnesota moving eastwards slowly, however further low to lower-mid
level cloud cover on the heels of the clearing should keep any peeks
of sun short lived this afternoon. With the low level clouds
continuing to linger, the subtle forcing from a passing upper level
trough will be enough to squeeze out further light snow showers that
should remain non accumulating for now. This trough passes across
the region tonight with the airmass unchanged heading into Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft coupled with cold 850mb temperatures will
continue with any weak forcing over the colder temperatures
resulting in flurries and light snow, much like today. The best
overall chance for a dusting to up to a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation will arrive tomorrow evening into early Wednesday
morning in central Minnesota as a subtle shortwave moves over the
colder low level temperatures, producing enough lift within the DGZ
for a few bursts of heavier snowfall. Area-wise, we are only looking
at local accumulations with most seeing flurries at best, with
western WI seeing the best overall chance to pick up a few tenths of
an inch ending early Wednesday.

There is little overall change to the pattern with the exception
being a lobe of even colder arctic air pushing southwards Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning, resulting in the coldest temperatures
we have seen so far this year with low temperatures in the blended
guidance ranging from around -8 to -15F with the metro being
the warmest. As this is blended guidance, we will likely see
these numbers decrease slightly as we get a bit closer as bias
correction catches up to the cold, with 850mb temp anomalies
from -10 to -15C. The main difference in the deterministic
guidance is the strength of the surface high pressure keeping
the arctic air locked in, ranging from 1035-1040mb. This
realistically will not have a huge implication on the low
temperatures, with the 925-850mb cold layer playing the largest
role alongside our recent snowpack helping our lows crash even
lower than they would over exposed ground. Much like today, the
rest of the period will contain cosmetic/nuisance flurry chances
that do little aside from briefly reducing visibility with no
accumulation expected as of now, mainly over the weekend as
guidance is showing a weak trough moving across the region
midday Saturday through Sunday. Overall, the period is expected
to be cold with minimal active weather besides the flurry
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

For eastern MN and WI, low stratus will continue to persist with
MVFR likely through tonight. A reduction to IFR is expected
around 12Z and should last thru the rest of Tuesday morning. For
most terminals to the west (except RWF), mostly clear skies
will provide strong radiational cooling and another round of
low cigs and mist early this morning. Currently have the worst
conditions expected at AXN where LIFR looks likely with
visibilities down to 1sm and cigs near 400 feet. A west-to-east
improvement to VFR is likely from late morning into the
afternoon. However, a cold front from the west Tuesday evening will
drop cigs to at least MVFR. Have added PROB30s at all terminals
for the chance of -SHSN and reduced visibilities. Light
southwesterly winds turn southerly Tuesday morning with speeds
increasing to 5-10 knots. Winds turn northwesterly once the
frontal passage occurs.

KMSP...Kept TEMPO from 06-10Z for periods of VFR cigs due to
breaks in stratus. Regeneration of the low stratus seems
probable with IFR cigs and perhaps even some light mist after
11Z. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid-afternoon. The cold
front should pass thru MSP near 05-06Z Wednesday with chances
for snow showers in the few hours around it. Cigs should fall to
MVFR/IFR after the front.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR. Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR late. Chc -SN late. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...CTG