752
FXUS63 KMPX 101132
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
532 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances of light snow will be possible today through
  Saturday. Minor accumulations will be possible with each
  system.

- Very cold temperatures settle in by this weekend with wind
  chills approaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria Friday
  night and Saturday night.

- Active pattern and cold temperatures ease next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The low pressure associated with the strong clipper (often referred
to as an angry clipper in the office!) was over Milwaukee at 3am.
This storm very much followed the southern end of the model envelop,
with the surface low eventually passing between the Twin Cities and
Mankato. This follows a trend we`ve seen going back to when this
active pattern started before Thanksgiving, reality has followed the
southern end of the model envelope, which has been held down pretty
strong every time by the ECMWF-AIFS. This tendency for the southern
solution to win out is something to keep in mind when looking ahead
to the clippers for Thursday and Saturday...

At 3am, the deformation band associated with the angry clipper was
working through the Twin Cities and heading to southeast MN. This
band of snow will be out of the MPX area by sunrise. However, over
eastern NoDak, there`s a ribbon of vorticity on the edge of a jet
streak that has been producing light snow all night (with 1 1/2sm to
4sm visibilities). CAMs are in good agreement on this area of
forcing and light snow moving east through the morning, with another
1/2 inch or so of snow looking likely over our MN CWA from late this
morning into the early afternoon. After this, we do get into a dry
period that lasts through Wednesday night as a surface high moves
through.

Thursday will bring us our next clipper in the northwest flow. As we
have often seen in this pattern, we have a good deal of spread
between northern and southern solutions in the ensemble members, but
given past performance, we are leaning heavily into the southern
solutions (ECMWF-AIFS again). Following the southern solutions, the
swath of heaviest snow with this wave (2-5") looks to be heading
from southeast SoDak to southeast Iowa, with some lighter snow
amounts getting up to about the MN River in southwest MN. We did
switch out NBM QPF Thursday with WPC QPF, as the NBM looks way too
hot with QPF across our entire MN CWA as it gets led astray once
again my northern ensemble members, from the GEFS in particular this
time. Based on where the southern solutions have the snow for
Thursday, we`re still a little high with the snow forecast for
Thursday across our entire MN portion of the CWA, but we were able
to at least peal 0.5" to 1" of snow off what the NBM had by going
with WPC QPF.

As we have seen since Thanksgiving, our breaks in precip our short-
lived, with the arrival of the arctic front leading to another
widespread 0.5" of snow along it late Thursday night through Friday
morning. The airmass coming behind this front will be the coldest
we`ve see so far this winter, with h85 temps dropping down to around
-20C this weekend. Friday afternoon, temperatures will be crashing
on northwest winds gusting to between 30 and 40 mph. Temperatures
will fall into the single digits and teens below zero Saturday
morning, with highs Saturday only getting up to a few degrees on
either side of zero. The coldest morning will be Sunday, when high
pressure, light winds, clear skies, and a deep and fresh snow pack
will send temperatures on a free fall. Lows in the teens and 20s
below zero look likely Sunday morning. As for extreme cold
headlines, as a reminder our criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory is
-25F or colder from the Twin Cities east and south and -30F west and
north of the Twin Cities (this goes up to -35F and -40F for an
Extreme Cold Warning). Our lows Saturday morning have actually
trended warmer a couple of degree over the past 24 hours, with wind
chills Saturday morning currently forecast settle in right at or
just warmer than our advisory criteria. We`ll have less wind, but
colder temperatures Sunday morning, so this looks to be our coldest
morning in terms of apparent temperatures as well, with Cold
Advisories looking all but certain for at least this morning right
now. At the moment, Extreme Cold Warning criteria is looking a bit
out of reach (as are record lows!). Besides the cold, the caboose in
the clipper train finally comes through on Saturday. Given how cold
and dry we will be in the low levels, it`s hard to see much, if any
snow getting as far north as MN on Saturday, with another two to
four maybe more snow coming for Iowa.

Next week, as the trough shifts east, upper ridging will overspread
the central CONUS. This will replace our arctic airmass this weekend
with one coming off the Pacific and central Rockies next week. WAA
will be in full swing on Sunday, but it will be hard to warm much on
Sunday when you`re starting the day off down around -20F. Given the
snow pack in place, we won`t be making any runs at 50 or anything
like that next week, but for Tuesday through Thursday, we should see
most of our area with highs pushing into the mid 30s. Besides the
warmer weather, your shovels and snow blowers will get a break as
well, with our next potential for precipitation after Saturday not
coming until Thursday next week and it may be warm enough for this
system where the predominate p-type we get is just plain rain. So
for those growing tired of the cold and snow globe weather, hope is
just around the corner!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Light snow is still lingering over portions of the area, mainly
southeastern MN, but much of yesterday`s system has wrapped up
by this morning. Did put a TEMPO at MKT until 14Z to cover for
periods of -SN and reduced visibilities before it exits
southeast. Cigs will remain MVFR through most of this afternoon.
There is a chance for -SN over MN, particularly west central
MN, this morning into early afternoon. Also added TEMPOs at AXN
and STC where -SN looks most certain while most remaining
terminals received PROB30s. Uncertainty increases this evening
onward with the evolution of cloud cover. AXN looks more likely
to see development of IFR cigs overnight while much of MN will
either be MVFR/VFR as clouds begin to scatter. A similar
scenario for WI with RNH having a greater chance of IFR cigs
early Thursday morning while EAU should see clearer skies.
Northwesterly winds will gust to 20-30 knots this morning but
speeds will slowly decrease to under 5 knots after this evening.
Variable/light winds are expected early Thursday morning.

KMSP...Added PROB30 from 16-19Z for -SN and visibilities down to
2sm. Thinking MVFR cigs (with bases near 1500 feet) remain
through Wednesday night but uncertainty does exist with a few
models dropping cigs to IFR and other clearing clouds out enough
for VFR. Opted to stay persistent with MVFR overnight. MVFR
looks likely late Thursday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
     Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Pepin-
     Pierce.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...CTG