942
FXUS63 KMPX 052000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering light snow ends from west to east today, with travel
impacts through the evening commute.

- Cold temperatures tonight with lows in the single digits across
the area.

- Another round of snow expected to arrive midday tomorrow in
  western MN, spread southeast through early Sunday. Several
  inches of accumulation are possible in southern MN with lower
  amounts to the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Radar echoes continue to churn over the eastern half of Minnesota
and through western WI this afternoon, with the strongest echoes and
highest snowfall rates skirting just to the south of the MPX CWA in
WI in portions of Wabasha, Trempealeau, and Buffalo counties as of
130pm. High resolution guidance has not performed particularly well
with the evolution of the light snowfall today, as it tends to
struggle with high PoP/low QPF type of scenarios. The latest
HRRR/RAP show lingering echoes in southern MN through 21-22z after
which point all snow tapers off this evening. Additional
accumulations in the area should remain rather low, with an
additional tenth of an inch or two in areas that continue to see
some light snow. Visibility has generally been improving per
automated surface observations, generally improving from 2 miles or
lower while snow is falling to above 7-8 miles as it ends. In this
type of environment, visibility is a decent proxy to snowfall rates,
thus once the visibility improves we can generally say that
lingering radar echoes are struggling to produce noticeable
precipitation. Temperatures are expected to crash behind the
departing snowfall as northwesterly winds stack across all layers of
the troposphere, allowing overnight low temperatures to range in the
single digits above zero tonight with the warmest temps in the metro
urban heat island.

Another clipper type snow event is likely tomorrow favoring western
to southern Minnesota and into Iowa, beginning around midday in
western MN and spreading southeast into the evening before ending
early Sunday morning. Guidance is still wobbling, especially the
high resolution guidance as there was a significant discontinuity
between the 00z runs last night and the 06/12z runs this morning,
with the 18z returning to align with the earlier runs. The 06/12z
HRRR especially pushed snowfall potential much farther north which
has again retreated back to the south with the 18z guidance, as the
18z RAP shows a solid footprint of snow along and south of the
Minnesota River with the highest amounts in northern Iowa. From our
snow events so far this season, the RRFS/AIFS have acted as a steady
anchor point for the forecast as the guidance has trended towards
their solutions the closer we have moved towards an event, and no
surprise the return to the more southerly solution within the 18z
guidance is also following this trend as both keep the axis of
highest snowfall potential from roughly Sioux Falls to Des Moines.
Dynamics wise this looks to be a quintessential clipper type event
with a strengthening mid level shortwave on top of a deep dendritic
growth zone due to cold low level temperatures. Forecast soundings
show a deepening DGZ as precipitation begins, with dynamic cooling
allowing for better saturation and efficient snowfall production
into the evening. The vertical continuity between the 925-700mb
isodrosotherms and shortwave moving through should produce the
heaviest bursts of snowfall as frontogenetic forcing remains aloft
with the lack of a defined surface system/boundary, which timing
wise favors the late afternoon through evening time frame south of
the Minnesota River. With the snowfall relying on the omega from the
shortwave, snow should end rather quickly as the forcing departs to
the southeast, with most of the area done with snow after midnight.
Overall accumulations are still fluctuating based on the expected
track of the shortwave, with a solid 3-6 inch range south of the
Minnesota River decreasing to 1-2 inches for most of the Twin Cities
metro and even lower amounts to the north where the forcing cuts
off. The highest overall amounts of 6 inches or more look to fall in
central to northern Iowa where the best chance to line up the
forcing with the best environment matches up, however there is still
enough movement run to run within the guidance that some shifting is
still possible. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued along and
south of the Minnesota River, with some upgrades/expansion possible
tonight with the midnight shift having fresh data to work with after
the 00z upper air soundings. Travel impacts are expected Saturday
evening into early Sunday, especially along I-90 where our highest
amounts are most likely, with impacts tapering off as crews have
time to work on Sunday.

Temperatures remain cold on Sunday in the single digits with lows
dropping below zero in spots both Sunday and Monday morning before
we warm back up into the 20s on Monday ahead of our next potential
system. Guidance late Monday into Tuesday favors a weak surface low
developing alongside a diffuse upper level shortwave tracking from
Grand Forks down through Duluth, which would place an axis of
precipitation along our border with the DLH NWS office. We may be
dealing with some p-type issues as we warm up enough to get above at
the surface, with 850mb temperatures trending towards the freezing
mark as well. There are still a few ways this could play out
depending on where the forcing ends up and how far north the warmer
air pushes, but don`t be surprised if we start to mention a wintry
mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain/drizzle on Tuesday next week.
Stay tuned for more detail as there is still a high degree of
uncertainty depending on how things evolve. Yet another shot of
colder air is appearing within the longer range ensemble guidance
afterwards, returning us back to our clipper train type environment
we have been in since Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Snow is gradually coming to an end this afternoon across the
area. Some terminals are even rising into VFR, but MVFR will be
more likely as snow comes to an end. Some IFR will be seen as
snow is still falling, but a quick improvement is expected as
it comes to an end. Later in the afternoon into this evening
lower MVFR into high IFR ceilings are expected, before VFR
becomes more widespread overnight. Another snow system is
expected tomorrow, but the heaviest snow is expected to the
south of the terminals. RWF and MKT are most likely to see snow
and as the forecast starts to come into better focus, more
impacts will be added to those TAFs.

KMSP... Light snow will continue for much of the afternoon, but
the main accumulation phase has ended. This will be mainly a MVFR
visibility impact for the last few hours of this light snow.
More snow will arrive across southern Minnesota tomorrow. How
far north this snow gets, and therefore impacts to MSP, is
still uncertain. With this uncertainty opted to keep the TAF
dry, but if the northern solution were to win out the timing of
the snow would be in the evening and could impact the later part
of the rush period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Likely VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...MVFR cigs. Chc -SN. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with -SN. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow
     Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...NDC