798
FXUS63 KMQT 061751
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
151 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool conditions for the first half of this week; widespread
  frost for inland areas Tuesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Light rain showers pressed east through the region ahead of a cold
front tied to a surface low lifting through James Bay and a
shortwave trough embedded within a broad trough extending across
much of central CONUS and Canada. Gusty southerly winds of 20-35mph .
ahead of the front have been observed, as well as temperatures mostly
in the upper 60s. The remainder of the night will progress with the
front moving eastward through the forecast area. Post frontal winds
are expected to lighten as they shift to the northwest. Temperatures
should fall into the 50s for most of the region by sunrise, with mid
to upper 40s interior west half being possible. Shower activity may
linger through the day across the south and east while the west half
trends dry. Daytime temperatures look to top out near 60F across the
forecast area.

Shower activity wanes this evening as a surface high stretches
northeast through the region. Increasing dry air is also expected
tonight, which with the light winds over the area will allow
overnight lows to fall into the 30s and 40s. Frost can`t be ruled
out in the interior west half. After a dry Tuesday with highs in the
upper 50s or low 60s, another night where frost is the main concern
is expected Tuesday night. PWATS and 850mb temperatures among
various deterministic packages fall below 0.2 inches and 0C,
respectively, as another high drops southeast into the region,
supporting light winds. Current forecast reflects widespread low to
mid 30s away from the immediate lakeshores, with upper 20s
stretching across the interior west half. Should be noted that this
falls generally near the 25th percentile of potential solutions, but
the setup has the signs of colder conditions, potentially into the
low to mid 20s in the interior west and central.

High pressure and mid-level ridging remain over the region for a few
days followed by the next chance for rain Thursday night into
Friday. The weekend looks to favor dry conditions until late Sunday.
Daytime high temperatures look to gradually warm for the rest of the
week and weekend, with the coolest day Wednesday, peaking in the
upper 50s, and the warmest, Sunday, climbing into the upper 60s to
low 70s. Frost may also be a concern interior central and east
Wednesday night, but the remainder of the period favors overnight
lows in the 40s or low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Lingering MVFR cigs are expected to lift within the next hour or two
leaving VFR conditions the remainder of the 18Z TAF period. While a
stray shower may pass over SAW this evening, confidence is too low
to include (15-30% chance) given the drier airmass in the low levels
and impacts are not expected regardless. Winds turn light and
variable this evening, but lightly increase out of the west tonight.
A sharper increase is expected behind a cold front Tuesday morning
with gusts up to 20 kts likely at IWD/SAW and up to 30 kts at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Cold front is currently moving through Lake Superior, supporting
southerly winds ahead of the boundary and a wind shift to the
northwest post frontal, both currently near or below 30kts. Still
see the potential for gales over western Lake Superior for the next
hour or so and plan to let the inherited gale warning expire for
western Lake Superior as scheduled. Winds should continue to lighten
through the day as the front moves east of the lake, potentially
falling below 20kts lake-wide this afternoon. The next cold front
tonight into Tuesday continues to support westerly winds increasing
to 25 to 30 kts, becoming more northwesterly by Tuesday afternoon.
Winds diminish Tuesday evening and remain light through late
Wednesday night when another period of 25 to 30 kts is expected.
These southerly winds continue into early Friday in response to a
surface trough moving through Ontario.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for MIZ002-004>006-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...77
MARINE...JTP