047
FXUS63 KMQT 261730
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1230 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High impact winter weather is expected over the next several
  days. An additional 12 inches or so of snowfall is still
  expected over the inland areas of the Keweenaw, Ontonagon, and
  Gogebic counties as well as the Michigamme Highlands of Baraga
  and Marquette counties north of US-41 between now and Thursday
  evening.

- Blizzard Warnings are in effect for lakeshore adjacent
  counties of the west and north-central U.P. where high
  snowfall rates (1+ inch per hour) combined with wind gusts
  greater than 40 mph will drastically reduce visibility.

- Gales up to 45 kts continue to expand across Lake Superior
  today and remain until Thursday night. Storm Force Winds to 50
  kts are expected across the central lake today. Significant
  wave heights look to reach up to 15 to 20 ft today into this
  evening.

- Minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion is possible along
  the Lake Superior shoreline now through Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

As the low makes its way through central Upper MI this morning,
expect quickly accumulating snowfall of 1+ inches per hour to
continue across the western 1/3rd of the UP while rainfall continues
across the eastern 2/3rds, save for parts of the central as the
low`s center moves through the region. With water vapor showing a
strong TROWAL over the western third, and the SPC mesoanalysis
backing this up with strong 925mb and 850mb frontogenesis over
there, snowfall rates of 1+ inches per hour are being realized;
looking at webcams, it seem like current snow totals are ranging
anywhere from around an inch over the spine of the Keweenaw as of
210am this morning to 6+ inches over by Ironwood (Gile, WI observer
sent in a report of 6 inches to NWS DLH at around 210am EST). While
the colder air looks to move eastward with time more slowly today
than previously expected (for example, snowfall looks to start in
the Marquette area now around noon instead of 7 AM as was predicted
yesterday), even so, expect snow totals to only be a few inches
lower than what was predicted from yesterday morning between 7 AM
EST today to 7 PM EST Thanksgiving Day. With most guidance having
the low`s center arriving near the city of Marquette around 7 AM
this morning and hanging around for the rest of the morning hours,
this will set up the western third of the U.P. with northeast to
north-northeast upslope flow and lake enhancement, not to mention
the strong synoptic forcing of the moisture-rich air found in the
TROWAL of the low. Thus, we can expect snowfall rates of 1-2+"
inches per hour to continue over the western third as cold air
advection just behind the low allows very strong winds aloft to mix
down to the sfc, bringing gusts as high as 55 mph down at times.
This will set up the area for blowing and drifting snow as the snow
ratios start to go above 10:1 and into the lower-to-mid teens:1,
allowing for whiteout conditions across open areas and near the
lakeshores of the western third of the U.P. the rest of this morning
into the afternoon hours. As the low starts to finally continue
eastward by this afternoon, expect the colder air to finally move
over the eastern 2/3rds of the U.P., quickly changing any rainfall
over to rapidly accumulating snow. While the TROWAL weakens as the
low lifts away from the U.P. today (see the trend in Q-Divergence
within the model guidance for some evidence of this), synoptic-scale
dynamics as well as upslope and lake enhancement from north to north-
northwest winds will allow for snow to accumulate quickly over the
north central this afternoon (thinking 1+ inch per hour rates).
Eventually, the last of the rainfall in our CWA looks to turn over
to lake enhanced snow over the far east by this evening. As the snow
ratios quickly soar above 10:1 in the lake enhanced snow areas
(especially behind the TROWAL), the blowing snow threat increases as
the the cold air advection behind the low will continue to bring
strong winds aloft to the sfc tonight through Thanksgiving. In
addition, while the synoptic component of the snowfall will be lost
from west to east late today through tonight, northwest to north-
northwest lake effect snow showers will continue as delta-Ts range
up to around 20C and remnant troughing remains across the Upper
Great Lakes. Thus, expect blizzard conditions to continue over most
of the western third today into tonight, and for the near lakeshore
areas of Marquette and Alger counties into Thanksgiving Day; 1/2 to
1+ inch per hour lake effect snowfall rates will also remain
possible over the rest of the eastern U.P. and far interior western
areas as well (save the south central; not much more than flurries
and light snowfall is expected) through Thanksgiving.

As the troughing begins to weaken throughout Thanksgiving Day,
expect the lake effect snowfall to slowly dwindle and diminish in
intensity the rest of the day through Friday, with some models even
ending the lake effect snow showers over the west by Friday evening.
However, as it looks like lake effect snow may be wrapping up over
the east on Saturday, another shortwave low looks to bring some
fluffy, dry snowfall back over the U.P. late this weekend into early
next week. While impacts with this system are projected to be lower
(if the current track still holds), the shortwave low could bring
some accumulating snowfall to the entirety of the U.P., including
the south central which is kind of being `skunked` by this current
winter storm. In addition, some lake enhancement and eventually lake
effect snow looks possible behind this shortwave early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

With Blizzard Warnings in effect for all 3 TAF sites to begin
the period, expect airport minimums to IFR conditions at all
sites. Wing gusts up to 35-45 kt in addition to occasional +SHSN
will cause some BLSN-driven visibility restrictions at all
sites despite ceilings lifting to the low-end MVFR range. As the
surface low pressure lifts to the northeast, lake effect SHSN
and gusty NW winds will continue at the end of the TAF period,
though some improvement to the IFR/MVFR range may be observed at
all sites by early afternoon of Thanksgiving.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

A strong early season winter low pressure system is progressively
increasing northeast to northerly gales up to 45 knots over the lake
early this morning, with northerly Storm Force Winds up to 50 knots
developing from time to time over the central lake later this
morning and again this afternoon as the low moves over the central
U.P. before lifting through the Straits this evening. As strong cold
air advection continues in the wake of the low, expect north-
northwest to northwest gales to continue across the lake tonight
through Thanksgiving, before dwindling down below gales late
Thursday night/early Friday morning as the troughing at the sfc
diminishes and a very weak ridge tries to move over the Upper Great
Lakes; expect the winds to become 20 knots or less again by Friday
night as the peak of the weak ridge moves overhead. Overall, could
see significant wave heights of 15 to 20 ft across the lake today,
with some wave heights getting over 20 ft late this afternoon into
this evening over the central/eastern lake (thinking between
Marquette and Munising and near Manitou Island). In addition to the
winds and waves, some light freezing spray may be seen over the
waters late tonight through the Thanksgiving holiday into Thursday
night.

Don`t expect the light winds to stick around all that long though
for this weekend, as another shortwave low lifts from the Southern
Plains through the Great Lakes region. Thus, we could see north to
northeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots return to the lake Sunday,
with a few gales up to 35 knots not being out of the picture either
(up to around a 20% chance).

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for
     MIZ001>004-009.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for MIZ001-
     005.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this
     evening for MIZ002-009.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MIZ003.

  Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for MIZ005.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ006.

  Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ006.

  Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ007-013-
     014-085.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday
     for MIZ007.

  Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for
     MIZ010-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MIZ011-
     012.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for LSZ162-
     240>242.

  Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ243-244-263-
     264.

  Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ243.

  Gale Warning until 8 PM EST Thursday for LSZ244-264.

  Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ245>247.

  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for LSZ248.

  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ249.

  Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for
     LSZ250-251-267.

  Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for LSZ263.

  Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ265-266.

  Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight
     for LSZ265-266.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...TAP