789
FXUS63 KMQT 091123
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
623 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning for
  Southern Schoolcraft and Luce counties, where lake effect snow
  transitioning to system snow may bring an additional 2-4" of
  snow. Highest amounts are expected closer to the
  Chippewa/Mackinac county borders.

- Another batch of light to moderate snow moves through tonight.
  Snow totals of 2-4" are expected closer to the WI border, but
  a more northerly track of the system may bring higher totals
  in excess of 4" (30-50% chance, highest over Menominee
  county).

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Gogebic, Iron,
  Dickinson and Menominee counties tonight into Wednesday
  morning.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through this week and
  beyond. Low temperatures in the single digits to near zero are
  possible late this week into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Early morning RAP analysis has a midlevel shortwave dropping into
the Great Lakes, with the associated surface low beginning to move
over western Lake Superior. Light snow has spread across the UP out
ahead of it, and persistent southerly flow is leading to lake
enhancement of of Lake Michigan across the far eastern UP. Though
hard to spot given the distance from, well, any radar, there are
hints on radar of a more robust band developing courtesy of that
long SSW fetch over Lake Michigan. This appears to be directed over
US-2 east of Manistique, extending inland across M-28 towards
Newberry. Indeed, visibility at Newberry has been coming in below a
mile for a couple of hours at this point, even falling below a half
mile at times. Latest hi-res guidance shows a potential for heavier
banding and snowfall rates in excess of 1in/hr lingering after
sunrise in the far eastern UP, so the Winter Weather Advisory in the
eastern UP has been extended to 14Z. Elsewhere, snowfall rates
remain rather light, though drops in visiblity have been noted area-
wide, and any snow accumulations could lead to slick roadways into
the morning commute.

Meanwhile, a pocket of dry midlevel air is apparent over MN and
western WI as the shortwave pulls away. Nighttime microphysics looks
rather murky, with plenty of low stratus. Surface observations show
lingering visibility restrictions and a stray snowflake. This is all
to say that some lingering flurries and even freezing drizzle will
not be ruled out behind this main batch of snow. Significant icing
is not expected, but it does point to a further risk for slick spots
on the roadways. Take it slow.

Finally, we briefly dry out into the afternoon as this initial wave
pulls away. A few breaks in the cloud cover will be possible, while
temperatures (currently in the teens/low 20s) rise ever so slightly
into the low/mid 20s. Then, the next, stronger clipper drops out of
the Northern Plains tonight. There remains an interesting amount of
disagreement between global and hi-res models for an event barely 24
hours out. Hi-res guidance shows a deeper midlevel trough, a more
northerly track in the surface low, and a more northward shove of
heavier QPF compared to the global models. This puts our WI-
bordering counties right on the northern edge of the heavier QPF,
while global models have the heaviest accumulations more comfortably
southward over central WI. So, confidence in warning-level totals
remains low, but this latest forecast has nudged up totals in our
Wisconsin-bordering counties slightly to account for the hi-res
guidance. This gives us a general 2-4in of snow from Gogebic to
Menominee counties, with a potential for some higher totals in
depending on the track of the system. For its part, the HREF does
indicate a potential for snowfall rates in excess of an inch per
hour sweeping from west to east mainly between midnight and 4am.
Elsewhere across the UP, totals tonight range in the 1-3in range,
highest over the north-central UP given enhancement off of Superior.
Have therefore decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the
southern UP tonight into Wednesday morning.

The main batch of snow quickly moves out early Wednesday, but amid
chilly north and eventually NW flow, expect lake effect snow to
linger. This isn`t looking to be terribly heavy given the rather dry
midlevels indicated in soundings, but another couple of inches will
be possible in the north and NW wind snow belts. Gusty winds develop
behind the cold front, with gusts to 20-25mph common and stronger
gusts to near 30mph possible nearer Lake Superior. This could lead
to some blowing snow. Temperatures hover in the teens to lower 20s.


Otherwise, medium range guidance continues to point to cold
temperatures persisting across the region through the period as
highs fall back into the teens and overnight lows again flirt with
sub zero readings by the end of this week. Our Clipper parade
continues as well. Of note: models continue to hint at another
stronger Clipper system approaching during the weekend, but differ
greatly on strength, progression, and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions are ongoing at each TAF site this morning as a
clipper makes its final glancing blow across the UP this morning.
Cigs/vis will improve to MVFR as snow tapers down, however, light
lake effect snow will persist mainly at CMX this afternoon. Another
clipper is set to work south of the UP tonight through Wednesday
morning, bringing another round of light snow and IFR conditions.
Heavier snow at IWD may bring LIFR vis at times after 00z.
Otherwise, gusty N winds pick up behind the passing clipper tomorrow
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Southerly winds continue to gust to around 20-25kts across the
eastern half of the lake early this morning, but briefly fall back
below 20kts by the afternoon while veering to the WNW. Winds will
then quickly increase out of the northeast late this evening as the
next system passes south of the area, with winds turning northerly
overnight. This leads to a brief period of 35-40kt NE gales over
western Lake Superior tonight, particularly between the Keweenaw
and Isle Royale. As winds turn to the N and then NW during the
daytime hours Wednesday, gales will become concentrated over the
central and eastern waters, falling off from west to east during the
evening. Have opted to issue a Gale Warning late tonight through
Wednesday. Will also have to watch for moderate to locally heavy
freezing spray in these areas. Winds then turn northwesterly and
drop below 20 kt for much of the rest of the work week. Then, the
potential for gales returns late Friday night and into the weekend
with  quickly-moving shortwave trough followed by steep ridging.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ007-
     014.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for MIZ009>012.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ242>244-
     263-264.

  Gale Warning from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ245-247-
     248-265.

  Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ249-250-
     266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...LC