553
FXUS63 KMQT 262107
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
407 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High impact winter weather continues through Thanksgiving. An
additional 12+ inches of snowfall is still expected over the inland
areas of the Keweenaw, Ontonagon, and Gogebic counties as well as
the Michigamme Highlands of Baraga and Marquette counties north of
US-41 between now and Thursday evening.

- Blizzard Warnings remain in effect for lakeshore adjacent counties
of the west and north-central U.P. where high snowfall rates (1+
inch per hour) combined with wind gusts greater than 45 mph will
drastically reduce visibility.

- Gales up to 45 kts persist across Lake Superior through Thursday
morning in the west and Thursday night in the east. Storm Force
winds to 50 kts will continue across east-central Lake Superior
through this evening. Significant wave heights build to 15 to 20 ft
this evening and persist at 12-18 ft in the eastern half of the lake
through Thursday evening.

- Minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion are possible along the
Lake Superior shoreline through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

An early season winter storm is well underway across Upper
Michigan this afternoon as water vapor imagery depicts a
vigorous, negatively tilted upper level trough directly overhead
with a 993 mb surface low analyzed over the east central U.P.
as of 3 PM Wednesday. Webcams and other surface observations
currently place the rain/snow line just east of Marquette, with
blizzard or near-blizzard conditions being realized along the
northern tier of counties from Marquette County westward to the
Keweenaw and Ontonogan/Gogebic Counties as heavy snow and strong
winds combine to significantly reduce visibilities. Water vapor
imagery depicts the TROWAL feature shifting east into
Baraga/Marquette Counties along with the axis of greatest
925-850 mb FGEN per latest SPC mesoanalysis. As such, expect 1"
per hour snowfall rates to continue over the western half into
later this evening, particularly over the higher terrain of
Gogebic/Ontonogan to the spine of the Keweenaw and the
Michigamme Highlands where strong synoptic scale forcing will be
aided by lake and orographic enhancement. Therefore expect
another 12-18" in these favored areas through Thanksgiving
morning, with comparatively lower amounts of 4-8" along the
immediate lakeshore including the Marquette area. Winter weather
headlines remain generally on track as north-northwest winds
gusting to 35-45 mph continue to produce blizzard conditions
across the Lake Superior adjacent counties through Thursday
morning. Rain will continue to change over to snow across the
eastern counties over the next few hours as the low continues
eastward towards the Straits of Mackinac, allowing blizzard
conditions to spread into Alger County while snow and blowing
snow bring winter storm conditions to the counties inland from
Lake Superior.

We will move into the second phase of the event tonight into
Thursday as the low moves east into Canada and takes the synoptic
scale forcing with it, allowing lake effect snow to become the
dominant mechanism going forward. Cold air advection on the back
side of the low will drop 850 mb temps to -13 to -15C across the
area by Thursday afternoon, corresponding to Delta-Ts approaching
20C as inversion heights go to around 10k ft per model soundings.
This will allow for an additional 4-8" of snow to be deposited in
northwest winds snowbelts Thursday through Thursday night,
especially from Marquette eastward into Alger County. Lake effect
then lingers across the east through Friday, but amounts look to be
rather minimal as inversion heights come down to 5-7 kft and
moisture begins to wane.

Attention quickly turns to another system this weekend as models
show reasonable agreement on a shortwave trough and attendant
surface low lifting out of the South Plains on Saturday to the
vicinity of Lower Michigan by Sunday morning, potentially bringing
another round of snow to the U.P. Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Potential snow amounts do not look overly impressive as of
this writing, but there is potential for parts of the southcentral
U.P. that are relatively missing out on the current event to get a
bit more snow this weekend. EPS currently depicts a 40-60%
probability for at least 4" of snow from Escanaba to Menominee for
this event, with closer to a 10-20% chance to exceed 4" for the rest
of the U.P. Looking further into next week, the NBM generally
depicts lower precipitation chances with temperatures remaining
below freezing through the week. Could see some chilly nights early
next week as the NBM depicts around a 60% chance to drop below zero
in the interior west, while areas closer to the lake more likely end
up in the teens to single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

With Blizzard Warnings in effect for all 3 TAF sites to begin
the period, expect airport minimums to IFR conditions at all
sites. Wing gusts up to 35-45 kt in addition to occasional +SHSN
will cause some BLSN-driven visibility restrictions at all
sites despite ceilings lifting to the low-end MVFR range. As the
surface low pressure lifts to the northeast, lake effect SHSN
and gusty NW winds will continue at the end of the TAF period,
though some improvement to the IFR/MVFR range may be observed at
all sites by early afternoon of Thanksgiving.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

A strong early season low pressure system located over the east-
central U.P. this afternoon continues to drive north to
northwesterly Gale to Storm force winds over Lake Superior and
northern Lake Michigan today, with waves building to 15-20 across
much of Lake Superior per the latest observations. Storm force gusts
have mostly shifted from the waters north and west of the Keweenaw
to the east central part of the lake as the system continues to
moves to the east as of mid afternoon. Storm Warnings remain in
effect through midnight tonight as 50 kt gusts continue over the
offshore waters from Keweenaw Bay to Grand Marais. Gales continue
over all waters into Thursday as winds shift more northwesterly in
the wake of the low and colder air filtering into the region
continues to support 40+ kt gusts over the lakes. Winds will
gradually diminish below Gale force over the western half of Lake
Superior during the first half of the day on Thursday, with waves
subsiding to 6-10 ft in response. However, Gales will persist over
the eastern half of the lake through Thursday night with waves
remaining in the 12-18 ft range. Wind finally diminish below 20 kt
over the western half and to 20-25 kt over the eastern half on
Friday as surface high pressure moves over Lake Superior, but waves
lingering in the 4-8 ft range will likely warrant small craft
headlines for the eastern nearshores through Friday afternoon.
Expect quiet conditions across the lake for Saturday, but that lull
will be short lives as another system potentially tracks into Lower
Michigan Saturday night into Sunday and brings another round of 20-
30 kt northwest winds across Lake Superior late in the weekend.
Medium range guidance currently depicts a 10-20% probability for
gales across the eastern half of the lake on Sunday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for
     MIZ001>004-009.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for MIZ001-
     005.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this
     evening for MIZ002-009.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MIZ003.

  Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for MIZ005.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ006.

  Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ006.

  Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ007-013-
     014-085.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday
     for MIZ007.

  Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for
     MIZ010-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MIZ011-
     012.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ249>251-267.

  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for LSZ162-
     240>242.

  Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ243-245>247.

  Gale Warning until 8 PM EST Thursday for LSZ244-264.

  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for LSZ248.

  Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for LSZ263.

  Storm Warning until midnight EST tonight for LSZ265-266.

  Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Friday for
     LSZ265-266.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...CB