306
FXUS63 KMQT 022048
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
348 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A clipper low pressure system tonight brings a round of light
  snow into Wednesday followed by trailing lake effect snow
  showers into Thursday. Widespread accumulations of mainly less
  than 1 inch, but 1 to 4 inches are increasingly likely (50-80)
  by Thursday morning over the northwest wind snow belts.

- Gale Watch is in effect for much of Lake Superior for
  northwest winds up to 40 knots Wednesday and Wednesday night.
  Additional gale potential (30-50% chance) exists Thursday
  evening into Friday. Both rounds likely will be accompanied by
  moderate to heavy freezing spray.

- Colder than normal temperatures continue through the forecast.
  Expect wind chills in the single digits above and below zero
  Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

The stubborn low clouds, transient isentropic forced flurries and
isolated light snow showers have diminished over parts of the east
and south-central this afternoon, but likely will persist over the
west into this evening. A clipper low arriving tonight brings
widespread light snowfall mainly 1" or less to the UP late tonight
into Wednesday. Higher amounts between 1-4" mainly will be confined
to the northwest wind snow belts as a cold airmass of 850 mb temps
between -23C to -25C descend in with the trailing mid level trough.
In the wake of this system, a tight pressure gradient with high
pressure quickly building over the Northern Plains sets up over
Upper Michigan. The combination of cold air advection and strong
pressure rises results in windy conditions in the Keweenaw and near
Lake Superior where gusts to 30-35 mph are expected. This could
result in some blowing snow at times, particularly in the east.
Winds slowly taper off into Thursday with increasing high pressure.
Inversion heights rise to 7 kft by Wednesday evening as well as
moisture near the top of the mixed layer and buoyancy increase,
resulting in better accumulating LES over the northwest wind snow
belts. NBM probabilities of at least 4" by Thursday morning are
between 50-80% over the east and between 15-30% in Keweenaw County.
A limiting factor in snowfall will be the strong winds within the
layer, drier air near the surface and moisture lofted above the DGZ,
which are all not ideal for snow growth. The resulting finer grain-
like snowfall could aid in visibility reductions over the east.
Winter Weather Advisories may be warranted in future packages.

Otherwise temps remain fairly steady in the upper teens to 20s into
tonight before steadily falling through Thursday morning to the
single digits above and below 0, coldest interior west. The eastern
Lake Superior lakeshores likely bottom out in the low teens Thursday
morning. Expect wind chills to fall into the single digits above and
below 0 for Wednesday into Wednesday night; some negative teens are
expected near Wisconsin Thursday morning.

High pressure moves east along the southern end of the Great Lakes
Basin on Thursday shifting winds once again out of the southwest.
Despite this, temps only rebound into the teens to low 20s. With
winds shifting and thermodynamic profiles deteriorating,
lingering/weakening LES showers lift back north out over the lake. A
shortwave emanating from the Canadian Prairie Thursday into Friday
sends a clipper low just north of Lake Superior on Friday.
Unimpressive model soundings indicate widespread accumulations once
again will be low impact, the primary focus being on the continuing
lake effect. LES PoPs continue through the weekend and into next
week over the northwest wind snow belts. Early next week this
pattern looks to be interrupted by another low pressure somewhere in
the Great Lakes vicinity, however left the NBM as is as spread in
the surface pattern spreads out significantly. What is more certain
is that below normal temps continue through the extended forecast.
Expect highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits and
teens. This prolonged colder than normal period will increase ice
coverage on inland lakes and streams, but it is still early in the
season. Remember, no ice is safe ice!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Observations from around the area show MVFR conditions with cigs
below FL020 at Upper Michigan terminals as of 18z Tue. Still
anticipate some improvement toward higher end MVFR or low end VFR
through this afternoon, but improvement will be relatively short
lives as a clipper low moves into the area tonight and brings
conditions back down to MVFR starting 03-06z Wed. Could see some
intermittent bouts of IFR in heavier snow showers through 10-12z
Wed. Conditions then trend back upward towards high end MVFR or low
end VFR near the end of the TAF period as snow tapers off and
transitions to lake effect for northwest winds snow belts. Winds
will gusts to 20-25 kt out of the northwest in the wake of the
clipper low.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Southwest winds of 20-30 kts are expected across the lake into
tonight ahead of a cold front. As this front crosses southeast over
the lake tonight through Wednesday morning, winds veer northwest. In
the wake of the cold front, gales to 35 kts are possible Wednesday
morning and early afternoon (40-60% chance). This potential
increases in the late afternoon (50-75% chance) as strong pressure
rises are accompanied by a cold airmass descending across the lake.
Opted to hoist a Gale Watch 7 AM Wednesday - 12Z 7 AM Thursday EST
given the lingering uncertainty in start time, but supportive
ingredients for gales overall. Significant wave heights this evening
will be between 4-8 ft, highest over the north-central waters. Waves
shift to the southern waters on Wednesday, increasing to 8-14 ft
over the east.

Winds fall back into the 20-30 kt range under the influence of high
pressure briefly on Thursday before the next clipper system tracks
just north of the lake. This once again increases southwest winds to
near 30 kts, with a 30-50% chance for Gales to 35-40 kts Thursday
evening into Friday.

This pattern of weak clipper lows followed by periodic chances of
low end gales will continue into the weekend. Each gale or near-gale
looks to bring 8-11 ft waves, and the coolest airmass of the season
residing over the lake will introduce some moderate to heavy
freezing spray threats at times.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night for LSZ241-242-263.

  Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for
     LSZ243>251-264>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...77