941
FXUS63 KMQT 061945
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
245 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- General weather pattern of Clippers followed by lake effect
  snow continues for the next week, perhaps beyond.

- A Clipper moving in Monday night could bring a couple of
  inches of snow across the area. Could see snowfall rates up to
  1/2 inch per hour at times, especially over the east closer to
  Lake Michigan (up to 50% chance).

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the next week
  and beyond, with highs in the teens to 20s and lows as low as
  the negative single digits (particularly Monday AM and after
  Wednesday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

As cold air advection continues to work into Lake Superior and the
U.P. the rest of today behind a pair of weak shortwave lows, the
lake effect snow showers across the area are becoming more confined
to the traditional NW wind snow belts as winds quickly weaken the
rest of this afternoon into this evening. While delta-Ts between the
frigid 850mb air and the 5-6C Lake Superior sfc waters are looking
to hang around 20C into tonight, given the weakening winds creating
less moisture flux from the lake waters and lower `push` into the
interior areas, thinking the lake effect snow over the NW wind belts
will remain light, no more than a inch or two per 6 hour period at
most. Could see some flurries across the central and further
interior areas of the U.P. this afternoon into early this evening;
however, with the winds weakening, expect a transition to clearer
skies tonight over the areas outside the NW wind snow belts. This
could lead to temperatures dropping close to zero, especially in the
interior west where the coldest temperatures are expected tonight.
As for the east, there may be some weak convergence over eastern
Lake Superior into the northeastern portions of Luce County late
tonight into Sunday. However, even with this occurring, as warm air
advection and ridging begins to move back over the region on Sunday,
expect snowfall rates to be fairly light, with only up to around 4
fluffy inches falling between late tonight through Sunday over
there. Elsewhere, expect only up to a couple of inches tonight
through Sunday as high pressure drops from the Canadian Prairies
towards the Lower Great Lakes.

We see a quick break from the lake effect snowfall early next week
as high pressure ridging moves through the region Sunday night into
Monday morning. However, a weak shortwave disturbance moving over
the area on Monday may kick up some lake effect snow in the SW wind
snow belts, mainly over the eastern U.P. from Manistique eastward.
While there is a fairly long fetch over Lake Michigan and somewhat
convergent winds, with delta-Ts starting in the mid teens and
decreasing with time, expect the lake effect to be light. As a
deepening Clipper low swings through the U.P. Monday night into
Tuesday morning, expect lake enhancement to increase snowfall rates
over this area, with snowfall potentially increasing to 1/2 inch per
hour (up to 50% chance). While some moderate snowfall rates could be
seen anywhere east of a line going from Marquette to Escanaba (20%+
chance), the greatest chances will be in that lake enhanced band
over the eastern U.P.. Should the moderate snowfall rates be
realized, a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed to address the
impacts to travel (such as slick roads, quickly accumulating
snowfall, reduced visibilities, etc.) Monday night to Tuesday
morning. As this Clipper gets absorbed by a stronger Clipper low
diving through the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, the snowfall
across the area dies out while lake effect snow showers hold on over
the west wind snow belts (i.e. the Keweenaw).

While there is still some uncertainty on the exact track of the low,
the stronger Clipper moving through the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday looks to push into Lower Michigan by Wednesday morning.
Depending on how far north this low tracks will determine the amount
of snowfall that the U.P. will receive from it Tuesday night through
Wednesday; should the more northerly solutions play out (such as the
GFS), we could see at least a few inches of snowfall across the
area, with potentially Advisory to low-end Warning amounts
(especially in the south central where the greatest system
precipitation looks to occur). However, if the more southerly
solutions such as the Canadian play out, only some lake effect snow
showers will be seen over the north wind snow belts, with some light
snow possible in Menominee County. Overall, will need to keep an eye
on this stronger Clipper low as it could bring impactful snowfall
over the U.P. for the middle of next week.

The Clipper train with lake effect snow following each shortwave
looks to continue through the rest of next week and potentially even
beyond as the Arctic air diving down into the eastern half of the
CONUS (thanks to the stratospheric warming event) continues to be
funneled overhead thanks to a rex block that has set up over the
Pacific/West Coast. Because of this synoptic-scale setup, below
normal temperatures are projected to continue into the middle of
December. Therefore, we could see temperatures drop below zero after
next week, in addition to Sunday night/Monday morning and the late
night/early morning time periods late next week. Frostbite and
hypothermia could set in fairly quickly late next week as conditions
could be gustier and cold behind the strong Clipper low from
Wednesday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Lake effect snow episode continues in this period, resulting in
flight categories at all sites. Generally light showers are
expected, although an increase in intensity may occur tonight.
Overall, lowest flight categories are expected at KCMX, which is
likely to experience MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities at times.
KIWD may dip into IFR tonight while KSAW is expected to improve to
VFR later this afternoon/evening. Gusty winds near 20-25kts at KCMX
are also expected today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Winds have weakened quickly to 20 knots or less this afternoon as
ridging starts to build back into the area. However, with a weak
shortwave impulse moving along the high pressure ridging just east
of or along the eastern lake Sunday morning, expect the winds to
pick up slightly to 20 to 25 knots from the northwest, with a few
gusts up to 30 knots possible over the east near the southeastern
lakeshore. As this happens, expect moderate freezing spray to
develop over the eastern lake, remaining until the evening hours.
While the center of the high pressure ridging moves overhead Sunday
night (bringing winds back down to 20 knots or less), winds pick up
from the southwest to 20 to 30 knots on Monday as a Clipper low
approaches the lake. As the low moves through Monday night, we could
see a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots over the eastern lake (30%
chance) Monday evening before the winds dwindle late Monday night.
As this low gets absorbed by a stronger Clipper low moving through
the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, expect the winds to become
northerly as they weaken down to around 20 knots or less. Behind
this stronger Clipper low moving through Lower Michigan, expect the
winds to increase from the northeast (that progressively back
further to the north with time) late Tuesday night through
Wednesday; as of the time of this writing, there is around a 30%
chance for gale force gusts up to 35 knots Tuesday night through
Wednesday, with freezing spray looking to return as well (until
Wednesday evening). As winds progressively become more north-
northwesterly Wednesday night into Thursday, expect them to lighten
but remain at around 20 to 25 knots until the end of the work week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...TAP