899
FXUS63 KMQT 040515
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1215 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through Thursday morning
for an additional 3-6 inches of snowfall in the eastern UP,
associated with NW wind lake effect snow bands.

- Gale Warnings are in effect for much of Lake Superior for
northwest winds up to 40 knots today and tonight. Additional Gale
Watches are in effect Thursday evening into Friday. Both rounds will
be accompanied by moderate to heavy freezing spray and waves of 8+
ft.

- Colder than normal temperatures continue through the forecast.
Expect wind chills below zero across much of the U.P. tonight,
falling as low as the negative teens near the WI border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Last night`s clipper has moved well east of the U.P. this afternoon,
making way for lake effect snow as cold northwest flow settles over
the region. The most impressive snow band is found over eastern
Alger into northern Schoolcraft County as of mid afternoon, aided by
a strong Lake Nipigon connection noted on GOES Day Cloud Phase
imagery. Forecast snow amounts remain on track across the east as
frigid 850 mb temps of -20C moving over Lake Superior yield Delta-Ts
of 25C while model sounding continue to show inversion heights
around 7-8 kft from Munising to Grand Marais. This will be
counteracted somewhat by a relatively shallow and dry dendritic
growth zone given the cold air mass. All in all, expect additional
accumulations of 2-4 inches across the eastern Lake Superior
adjacent counties through tonight, with locally higher amounts of as
much as 3-6" possible in a few locations. Could also see some
blowing snow and locally reduced visibilities along the immediate
lakeshore where winds will gusts as high as 35-40 mph at times
tonight. The Winter Weather Advisory thus remains on track in the
east through Thursday morning. Meanwhile, spotty light snow showers
will also continue across western and central parts of the U.P.
tonight, but accumulations will generally be limited to an inch or
less in these areas. The other forecast concern tonight will be the
cold temperatures as lows drop into the single digits across a wide
swath of the U.P., and near or even slightly below zero across the
interior west. These cold temperatures coupled with breezy northwest
winds will produce below wind zero wind chills across most of the
area overnight into Thursday morning, with some locations in the
west and near the WI border dropping into the mid teens below zero.

Expect a lull in precipitation during the day on Thursday as winds
shift southwesterly and push lake effect bands back offshore. The
frigid air mass will remain in place, capping high temperatures in
the teens for most locations Thursday afternoon. Another clipper
heads our way from the Canadian Rockies Thursday night into Friday,
bringing another round of light snow to the region. Impacts look to
be very similar to this most recent system as most locations are
only expect to a see around an inch or two of accumulation through
Friday morning.

The upper level pattern shows little change through the long term as
deep low pressure remains centered in the vicinity of Hudson Bay and
continues the parade of clipper systems across the Upper Great
Lakes. This will result in an active but rather low impact weather
pattern across the U.P. as systems continue to traverse the region
every few days, bringing mostly minor accumulations followed by
periods of lake effect snow across the northwest wind snow belts.
Temperatures mostly remain below freezing through the end of next
week, with highs in the teens to 20s each day and another round of
colder overnight temps in the single digits looking likely this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Lake effect snow continues tonight, resulting in ceilings and
reduced visibilities. Main impacts are expected at KCMX, which is
likely to remain IFR or LIFR overnight due to showers and winds
gusting near 30kts. Improvement to MVFR is expected Thursday
morning. Winds shift to westerly and then southwesterly, which may
help to refocus shower activity into KCMX by afternoon.

KIWD and KSAW could see MVFR conditions tonight, but confidence
isn`t as high, so prob30 groups were included. Conditions improve by
morning to VFR at KIWD/KSAW as winds settle.  Another wave of snow
and gusty winds moves into Upper Michigan late Thursday, which may
result in low level wind shear at KIWD and conditions trending
toward MVFR after 0z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Gales continue as northwest winds increase across Lake Superior this
afternoon, with several observations reporting winds gusting to 35
to 40 kt. Expect gales to diminish west of the Keweenaw overnight,
but continue for the rest of the lake into Thursday morning as waves
build to 8 to 13 feet over the eastern half of the lake. Opted to
move up the start time of the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning to this
afternoon as we already have received a ship ob of freezing spray
and winds will only continue to strengthen over central and eastern
parts of the lake this evening. Winds will shift southwesterly
Thursday morning and at least temporarily diminish into the 20-30 kt
range through most of the day on Thursday. However, winds will
increase again Thursday evening into Thursday night, and have
therefore hoisted another round of Gale Watches beginning over the
western half of the lake late Thursday afternoon and the central and
eastern parts of the lake Thursday evening, continuing through early
Friday morning. Have also upgraded the Gale watches to warnings for
northern Lake Michigan zones Thursday night into Friday morning.
Expect northwest winds 20-25 kt over the waters through much of the
weekend.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ006-
     007-085.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for LSZ162-
     241-242-263.

  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this morning
     for LSZ241-242-263.

  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ243>251-
     264>267.

  Gale Watch from this evening through Friday morning for
     LSZ243>251-264>267.

  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for
     LSZ244-263-264-266.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for
     LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...CB