843
FXUS63 KMQT 190920
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
420 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather today with increasing cloud cover and highs slightly
above normal the low 40s.

- Next period of widespread precipitation is expected Thursday,
mainly in the form of light rain.

- Benign, low impact weather looks to continue this weekend into the
early part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Early morning satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies across
the U.P. as the region remains on the periphery of broad, low
amplitude upper level ridging which spans much of the central CONUS.
Clear skies have allowed temperatures to dip into the teens across
the western half again overnight, with a few sheltered locations
reading in the high single digits. Temps are mostly in the 20s
across the east. Abundant cloud cover noted upstream over Minnesota
and the Dakotas will begin to spread into the area today ahead of a
deepening upper level trough starting to take shape over Alberta and
Saskatchewan on water vapor imagery. In the meantime, the continued
influence of the upper level ridge and weak warm air advection will
allow daytime highs to climb into the low 40s across much of the
area today.

The next round of precipitation will move into the area on Thursday
as the upstream trough progresses eastward across Canada into
northern Ontario, flattening out the ridge in the process. Weak
isentropic ascent will force light precipitation in the west
beginning late tonight into early Thursday morning, spreading east
across the rest of the U.P. through the course of the day. Could see
some mixed precipitation at the onset across parts of the west as
surface temps linger near freezing, but will quickly transition to
all rain as temperatures continue to warm. Precipitation amounts
continue to look rather meager as model QPF caps amounts at around a
tenth of an inch for most of Upper Michigan through Thursday
evening. Expect a transition back to a weak lake effect rain/snow
shower regime for WNW snowbelts as cold air advection kicks in
behind the system late Thursday into Friday, however models continue
to downplay the potential for any particularly impactful
precipitation as soundings depict plenty of dry air and inversion
heights only around 5000 ft.

Upper Michigan then settles into a low impact, zonal flow pattern
this weekend into the early part of next week as daytime highs
remain slightly above seasonal norms in the low 40s. A few embedded
shortwaves will bring occasional chances for light precipitation,
but do not see anything particularly noteworthy on the horizon at
this time. Ensemble cluster analysis does begin to favor a return to
a troughier pattern over the Upper Midwest and Great lakes mid to
late next week, signaling an eventual return to cooler weather and
increased precipitation chances. However, details remain sparse at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR conditions continue early this morning through the daylight
hours today as winds slowly pick up from the SW after sunrise as a
low pressure lifts from the Northern Plains into northern Ontario.
As the low`s cold front approaches the U.P. tonight, expect cigs to
drop down to MVFR at IWD and potentially even CMX before the period
ends.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Winds will begin to increase out of the southwest across Lake
Superior today as the surface pressure gradient is squeezed between
high pressure to the south and low pressure approaching from the
west. This will result in 15-20 kt winds across the western half of
the lake by this afternoon, increasing to 20-25 kt and spreading
eastward tonight into Thursday as waves build to 3-5 ft west of the
Keweenaw and 2-4 ft in the east. This will likely necessitate the
next round of Small Craft Advisories from the Keweenaw eastward as
winds shift westerly and northwesterly later THursday into Friday,
with wave heights building to 4-7 ft over the eastern half of the
lake. NBM currently depicts around a 30-40% chance for low end Gale
force gusts over the eastern half of the lake by Friday. Will
continue to monitor.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...CB