941
FXUS63 KMQT 020831
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
431 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and low impact weather continues for the remainder of the work
week.

- Unseasonable warmth returns this weekend with daytime highs 15-20
degrees above normal. Max high temperature records could be broken
across several spots.

- Warm, breezy, and dry weather may lead to limited fire weather
conditions this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Morning water vapor and RAP analyses show broad midlevel ridging
over the eastern CONUS, with the ridge axis shifting into the Lower
Great Lakes. A stacked low is spinning off of British Columbia, and
in between these two longwave features, weaker shortwaves are
rippling through the Plains and Midwest. An initial wave moving
through our area is keeping in some patchy mid- and upper-level
cloud cover tonight, and in spite of cloud cover as well as a rather
dry airmass, some patchy fog has still been able to develop with
temperatures cooling to the dewpoint across the central and eastern
UP. There is quite a range in temperatures early this morning, with
the interior hovering in the upper 40s to mid 50s and areas near the
shorelines in the upper 50s. Temperatures recover nicely into the
daytime hours while cloud cover moves out; expect highs in the mid
and upper 70s for most of the area, save the eastern UP where
southerly flow off of Lake Michigan should limit afternoon highs to
the mid and upper 60s.

By this evening, a weak cold front currently draped across the
Dakotas, extending from low pressure over northern Manitoba, reaches
western Lake Superior and continues to sweep eastward overnight.
This will bring in some chance PoPs to the area tonight, though
forcing is rather unimpressive. A couple hundred j/kg of CAPE points
to a chance for some thunder as well, though strong to severe
convection is not expected. Showers quickly move out of the area
into the early hours of Friday. Temperatures starting off in the 50s
rebound into the 70s to lower 80s under partly cloudy skies Friday
afternoon as ridging briefly recovers.

By the weekend, the Midwest will be stuck in between expansive high
pressure sprawled out over the eastern seaboard and surface low
pressure ejecting out of the Rockies. The ridge to our east looks to
suppress this next feature well to our west Saturday, with latest
guidance bringing the surface low through the Northern Plains and
into far northwest Ontario by Saturday afternoon. As a result, we
may miss out entirely on rain before another deeper shortwave and
deepening surface low take nearly the same track Sunday. As this
moves towards Hudson Bay Sunday evening, the trailing cold front
moves through the UP and brings our next chance for some rain Sunday
night. With better forcing away to our west and north, it isn`t
exactly looking like a soaker with guidance favoring amounts
generally below a tenth of an inch. If we do not receive any
rainfall this weekend, we could see some fire weather concerns as a
tight pressure gradient over the area leads to breezy conditions
Saturday and Sunday. This is in combination with highs well into the
70s and lower 80s and RH falling into the lower-mid 40s.

Temperatures will be heading towards more seasonal values by early
next week behind Sunday`s cold front, with highs in the 50s to lower
60s and lows possibly as low as the mid 30s. The ridge attempts to
build back in, which would lead to a generally dry period, but some
subtle shortwaves are enough to keep in some slight-chance PoPs
Monday into early Tuesday. A clipper-like system and reinforcing
shot of CAA drops through Tuesday evening, reinvigorating our rain
chances. Behind this, 850mb temperatures falling to near -2 to -4C
(depending on your model of choice) will introduce the potential for
some trailing lake effect rain showers Wednesday before ridging
recovers Thursday. Otherwise, expect temperatures to come in a
couple degrees cooler after Tuesday, with highs mainly in the
mid/upper 50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the duration of the 6Z TAF
period as high pressure continues to extend overhead. S winds are
expected ~8-10 kts with gusts up to ~20kt possible at all sites
after sunrise. A cold front approaching from the NW late in the
period brings slight chances (15-24%) for -SHRA/TSRA. Left mention
out of the TAFs for now given too much uncertainty, but the best
chances are at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Southeast wind gusts to around 20-25kts persist across the eastern
and north-central portions of the lake early this morning, but as
winds veer more southerly today, these stronger gusts will become
more confined to the eastern half of the lake by tonight.
Additionally, we may see some showers and rumbles of thunder move
across the lake late this evening through Friday morning associated
with a shortwave low passing over the western lake. However, with
the better forcing mechanics north and west of the area, no severe
weather is expected. Winds increase from the south to 20 to 25 knots
once again on Saturday as another shortwave low approaches the area
from the Plains but misses us to the west and north this weekend. As
this occurs, expect the southerly winds to increase up to 25 to 30
knots Saturday night into Sunday, with gales up to 35 knots being
possible when the cold front of the low moves through sometime
around the Sunday/Sunday evening time period (around 30-50% chance
per ensemble guidance). In addition to the winds, some thunderstorms
could be seen along the cold front Sunday evening. Behind the cold
front, expect winds to slowly decrease from the west and northwest,
eventually becoming 20 knots or less again late Monday. Winds
increase above 20kts out of the SW Tuesday ahead of another trough.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...LC