616
FXUS64 KMRX 011803
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
203 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

- Scattered showers will return tonight and continue through the
  day on Sunday with isolated thunderstorms possible in the
  afternoon. The greatest coverage will be along and west of
  interstate 75. There is a low probability that the Sunday
  afternoon storms could produce pea size hail.

- The highest elevations of the Smoky Mountains and mountains of
  far southeast Tennessee could experience of mixture of sleet and
  snow grains with the showers Sunday afternoon.

- Dry weather will return next week, followed by a gradual warming
  trend. Another system will bring rain chances by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Currently satellite shows an upper trough over southern Iowa
moving south-southeast toward the Tennessee valley. Plenty of high
and mid-level clouds are moving toward the region and expect
mostly cloudy sky by late afternoon/early evening.

For tonight, this upper low will move into western Tennessee with
jet forcing and isentropic lift producing scattered showers over
the Plateau counties toward morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy sky
is expected.

For Sunday, the upper low will be located across northeast Alabama
by late in the day. The upper jet forcing will produce an area of
convection mainly along and west of interstate 75. HREF and
ensemble CAPE probabilities show values of 200-400 J/Kg with mid-
level lapse rates of 7.5-7.8 degrees. Embedded thunderstorms are
expected for Sunday afternoon for the Plateau and southeast
Tennessee. Due to the cold air aloft with the upper trough, pea
size hail is possible with the strongest convection.

Since the freezing level is around 800mb and enough moisture
within the ice nucleation, any showers across the Smoky Mountains
and far southeast Tennessee mountains could mix with sleet and/or
snow grains. Ensemble probabilities are in the 20 percent range
for mix precipitation. No accumulation expected.

The convective activity end Sunday evening as the upper trough
moves south and east of the area.

For Monday through Thursday night, ensemble analysis and
deterministic models show a fairly zonal/less amplified upper
level pattern. Dry conditions and a gradual warm up are expected.

For Friday into next weekend, the upper flow becomes more
amplified with increasing chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions today with surface ridging producing light and
variable winds.

For late tonight and Sunday, an upper trough will approach the
area increasing chance of showers across TYS and especially CHA
for mainly tomorrow. Thunderstorms are possible by 18Z and
continue through Sunday afternoon.

Plenty of high/mid level clouds moving into the area today and
tonight lowering to 5-6kft at TYS and CHA Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             48  58  42  64 /  30  70  30   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  47  60  42  62 /  40  30  20   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       46  59  39  63 /  50  40  20   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              42  60  36  60 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH