283
FXUS64 KMRX 131738
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1238 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

- Low chances of rain Friday night, slightly better chances Saturday
night into Sunday.

- Breezy winds areawide this weekend with near wind advisory level
gusts across the highest elevations of the east TN mountains.

- Low to medium chances for rain next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Not much change since the last forecast. Mostly dry weather into
the weekend except for a slight chance of a light shower tomorrow
night in southwest Virginia. This weekend, a weak front brings
more light rain chances Saturday night into Sunday morning, but
with no real push of cold air behind it. The biggest impact from
this weekend`s system will be the breezy winds that will accompany
it thanks to a 30 to 40kt 850mb jet that will be moving across
the area. Deep mixing will allow breezy conditions across valley
locations, lower elevations, of 15 to 20 mph wind gusts on
Saturday and Sunday. The higher elevations of the east TN
mountains will see gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Most higher elevation
areas will stay below advisory level winds but isolated locations
such as Cove Mountain may see gusts above 40 mph.

A pattern shift next week is still expected but timing remains
uncertain in regards to when a system will impact our area. Bottom
line, increasing rain probabilities are expected next week but keep
an eye out for further details once models better resolve their
timing differences.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period at all sites. Breezy
winds currently ongoing at TRI but wasn`t confident enough to
include in TAFs as guidance suggest winds should be calming later
in the day. Worst case, an amendment will have to be issued to
include the gusty winds if they don`t subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             41  71  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  37  67  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       37  65  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              33  63  44  66 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99