Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
711 FXUS64 KMRX 281738 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1238 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Dry and colder weather continues through Saturday. - A system will bring a return of rain chances and gusty winds for the mountains and foothills Saturday night into Sunday. Higher elevation areas may see a brief wintry mix early Sunday and again Sunday night, but impacts are forecast to be minimal or none. - Another system will bring precipitation to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Some northern areas, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia, may begin as snow Monday night. All rain is expected Tuesday with a gradual changeover to snow late Tuesday across higher elevations. - Dry again Wednesday and Thursday with precipitation chances increasing once again on Friday into next Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 High pressure shifts eastward on Saturday with weak southerly flow returning during the afternoon. Increasing isentropic ascent will result in increasing clouds Saturday evening and into the overnight hours. Some virga and light precipitation will increase in probability overnight with likely probabilities for precipitation area-wide by Sunday morning at sunrise. Temperatures will be above freezing, so rain is expected to be the predominant precipitation type. Some non-impactful light wintry mix will be possible on the leading edge Saturday night across the higher elevations of the mountains and for portions of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia, but little to no impacts are expected. Colder air moves back into the area Sunday night into Monday morning behind the departing cold front, but with drier air quickly arriving, limited orographic precipitation potential is expected across the higher terrain. A southerly track low pressure system will develop across the Mid-South ahead of a strong shortwave trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Great Plains. At this time, cold air is not expected to be far enough south to result in much wintry weather across the Tennessee Valley or Southern Appalachians. All rain is expected in the valley and lower elevations with a brief period of wintry mix possible across the higher elevations late Monday night before a switch to all rain during the day on Tuesday. No impacts are expected. By Tuesday evening and night, northwest flow develops behind the departing low pressure system with some light orographic snow expected across the higher elevations of the East Tennessee and southwest Virginia mountains. Limited accumulations are anticipated with only minor impacts across the highest terrain. High pressure will be across the region mid-week with dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday. Another low pressure system may impact the region next Friday into Saturday, but timing and track is highly uncertain at this time. With longwave troughing much of the Eastern and Central CONUS for the upcoming week, temperatures remain 5 to 12 degrees below normal for much of the upcoming 7 days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 High pressure results in a mostly clear sky and continued VFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 51 41 50 / 0 0 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 50 36 49 / 0 0 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 23 48 36 47 / 0 0 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 48 33 46 / 0 0 30 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...JB AVIATION...JB