174
FXUS64 KMRX 011101
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
701 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 658 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

- Light rain will return tonight and continue through the day on Sunday
  with rain totals expected to be less than 0.25 inches for most.

- Dry weather will return next week, followed by a gradual warming
  trend. Another system will bring rain chances by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Currently early this morning, troughing is to our northwest with
high pressure remaining in place. After a cool morning, this trough
will deepen throughout the day with frontogenesis taking place near
the Ohio River Valley. The region will remain dry and seasonally
cool throughout the day. However, these features will approach the
region with increasing moisture by the evening hours, bringing a
return of rain chances. These chances will continue into Sunday as
an upper low becomes cut off over the region. Temperatures at or
below 850mb will stay above freezing early on but will drop slightly
on Sunday. Some of the highest peaks could see a mix with light
snow, but little to no accumulation is anticipated outside of places
like Mount Leconte. Overall, rain totals look to be light as PWATs
will stay well below 1 inch but still sufficient for most places to
see rain.

By Monday, the closed low will shift well off to our east with high
pressure expanding from the south and west, bringing a return of dry
conditions. Heights will gradually rise through the week with
lingering high pressure keeping rain chances out of the area. A
gradual warming trend can be expected with temperatures rising back
above normal by the second half of the week. By Friday, high
pressure will shift east of the region with another trough deepening
to our west. A lot is unknown about the evolution, but rain chances
of 20 to 30 percent will return based on the consensus of a system
developing and moving into the eastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Dense fog has developed at TRI and will likely persist for at
least another hour or two. Then, conditions will improve to VFR as
is expected for all of the sites throughout the day. Ceilings will
develop as clouds arrive from the west this afternoon and evening,
but they will generally be above 5,000 feet. Light rain will
gradually advance from the west overnight but was left out of the
TAFs for the time being.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  47  60  39 /  10  30  50  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  46  59  40 /  10  40  50  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  45  57  39 /  10  50  50  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  42  59  36 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW