544
FXUS64 KMRX 022356
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 655 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

- Showers continue today isolated thunderstorms possible this
afternoon. There is a low probability that the Sunday afternoon
storms could produce pea size hail.

- The highest peaks of the mountains above 5000 feet may receive
some wintry mix of precipitation Sunday evening, but no impacts
expected.

- Dry weather and a warming trend will return next week under high
  pressure in control. Rain chances return Friday into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Currently scattered showers present across parts of eastern
Tennessee with the greatest coverage west of Interstate 75. These
showers will continue through the rest of the afternoon and into the
evening, eventually dissipating closer to midnight, as a upper level
trough is making it`s way through the region. As the afternoon wears
on there could be enough instability and steep enough lapse rates to
generate a few rumbles of thunder, and with atmospheric
temperatures this cold we also cannot rule out the strongest storm
of the day producing pea size hail briefly.

If the precipitation continues for long after sunset the peaks of
the mountains which are only climbing into the low 40`s this
afternoon could briefly switch over to light snow before the system
weakens and moves out of the region. Accumulations are expected to
remain light and confined to the highest elevations above 4,000
feet.

Behind this departing system, drier air begins to arrive tomorrow
with high pressure keeping our area dry and mostly clear through
later next week. A gradual warming trend will occur over the week as
heights and ridging increase ahead of another upper-level trough
across the northern Great Plains. This trough will bring an
associated cold front to the region late this upcoming Friday into
Saturday when rain chances increase once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Precipitation is beginning to clear out and will diminish over the
next several hours. MVFR cigs continue overnight with clearing by
Monday morning and throughout the day. Winds remain light and
prevailing from the N/WNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             41  63  39  68 /  20   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  43  58  39  65 /  40   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       41  60  36  64 /  30   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              37  55  34  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...JB