394
FXUS64 KMRX 101757
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1257 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Strong gusty winds this afternoon will subside later today into
  tonight.

- NW flow snow event expected later today through early Thursday
  with accumulating snow mainly over parts of the E TN mountains
  and higher terrain of southwest Virgina.

- Low chances of precipitation across the north Friday night into
  Saturday.

- Stronger surge of cold air will arrive for Sunday into Monday.
  Lows in the teens with some higher elevation single digits
  expected Monday morning. Lower wind chills will add to the cold.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

The strong gusty winds that are ongoing over our area ahead of an
approaching cold front will subside later this afternoon into
tonight after the front exits to our east. Winds have already
gusted over 50 at Cove Mountain, and we have seen gusts to around
40 at the TYS airport. The wind advisory will be allowed to
continue as it is for now.


While moisture is limited, we will see some rain showers around the
time of the frontal passage, then as much colder air pushes in we
will see a rapid changeover to snow showers over the higher terrain,
and the valleys will likely see some snow showers and/or snow
flurries as well overnight.  The normally favored orographic lift
areas of the mountains will see accumulating snow in the northwest
flow and cold advection overnight into Thursday, with amounts of 1
to 3 inches likely in many of these upslope higher elevation
locations especially at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher
amounts may occur in a few of the highest mountain peaks. The winter
weather advisory for parts of SW VA and the E TN mountains will be
continued as is. A few locations across the northern half of the TN
valley may see some light accumulations of less than an inch, but
most valley areas are expected to see no accumulation or just a
dusting.

Following the snow`s exit Thursday, a short-lived cool-down can be
expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing
clouds. However, a weak system will bring increased chances for
precipitation to northern parts of the area late Thursday night into
Friday. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising which will bring the
warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday.

Models generally agree on a stronger cold front moving through
Saturday night followed by an area of cold high pressure with its
origins in Alaska and Western Canada. Current ensemble data suggests
little precipitation, but much colder air will move in behind the
front for Sunday and Monday. Monday morning lows are currently
forecast to be in the teens across the majority of the valley and
Plateau with some single digits for the highest elevations of the
mountains and parts of southwest Virginia. It currently appears
winds will be on the decline once we get later in the night
Sunday into Monday, which is good news and may suppress what could
be much worse wind chills. High pressure will eventually shift
eastward but will keep us dry through at least early Tuesday.

Another system may approach by Wednesday, so Pops will tick up once
again by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Gusty winds this afternoon will gradually diminish later in the
period. We will see some rain and snow showers around especially
TRI and TYS, with TRI the most likely to see visibility impacts.
In addition, cigs will dip to MVFR levels at TYS and TRI for much
of the overnight into early Thursday time frame, but should rise
back to VFR before the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             29  46  30  58 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  30  41  31  54 /  30  10  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       29  41  30  54 /  20  10  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              28  35  26  46 /  70  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Anderson-
     Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-
     Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
     Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest
     Monroe-Roane-Scott TN-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Lee-Russell-
     Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Russell-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99