Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
425 FXUS64 KMRX 090556 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1256 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Dry and warmer temperatures today and Wednesday prior to a cold front later Wednesday. Higher terrain light snow possible behind the system early Thursday. - Another warm-up expected late week with low chances of precipitation around, primarily for the north. - Cold morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend with sub-freezing temperatures likely area-wide and wind chills in the teens for parts of northeast TN and southwest VA. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Later today will provide a nice break from precipitation and the drawn out dreary overcast conditions, as cloud cover will decrease. High pressure will dominate the southeast, with temperatures on the incline today and tomorrow. Conditions change again later Wednesday when a low center crossing southern Michigan brings a cold front to the area. Before that arrives, a strong westerly jet will develop Wednesday morning. Based on the flow direction, this isn`t ideal for a mountainwave set-up. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest for much of the forecast area Wednesday. A mostly rain with some snow mix, will transition to mostly snow Thursday morning. NW flow behind the storm system and front may bring light accumulations to the Southern Appalachians and southwest Virginia. Nothing more than an inch and a half, currently. A short cool-down can be expected Thursday with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing cloud cover. However, precipitation from a weak system will bring increased chances to northern parts of the CWA. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising which will bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday. Later this weekend becomes a bit complicated in regards to more precipitation due to potential southern and northern stream systems colliding, but the one thing models can see and agree on, is a substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into early Monday. Strong high pressure is expected to barrel its way through, originating from Alaska and Western Canada, where temperatures there have been in the 50s below at night, but we will not see that here. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Broken to overcast clouds at the VFR/MVFR margins have been observed for the past few hours. The expected trend is for improving conditions at CHA, with gradual scattering overnight. TYS is expected to hold steady at low VFR cigs through the night, but a brief drop to MVFR will be possible (low chance). TRI has a better chance of cigs lowering to MVFR overnight, then rise to VFR again late in the morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 35 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 36 53 31 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 45 35 53 30 / 0 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 29 49 29 / 0 0 30 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KS AVIATION...DGS