Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
181 FXUS64 KMRX 302350 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 650 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 648 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and widespread rain to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Far northeast mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia, may begin as a wintry mix. - Rain expected elsewhere. Perhaps a changeover to snow late Tuesday across higher elevations as moisture is exiting. Limited accumulations at most. - Dry Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances increasing once again Friday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Currently a frontal boundary is moving into the Plateau. Isentropic lift in advance of the boundary is producing areas of light rain, areas of fog and cloudy sky. As the frontal boundary moves across the region late this afternoon/early evening, drier air will move into the region with an erosion of the clouds and fog. Sky will become mostly clear by early Monday morning. For Monday, surface ridging will produce dry conditions until the evening hours. There will be increasing high and mid-level clouds. For Monday evening through Tuesday, a northern stream short-wave diving into the central/southern plains will phase with a short stream jet energy across the lower Mississippi valley. Strong jet dynamics will move across the region during the morning hours enhancing the fronto-genetic forcing along a boundary over the region. Widespread rain with amounts from 1/2-3/4 inch southwest Virginia/northeast Tennessee to 1 to 1 1/2 inches across the Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina. REFS and RRFS-a show a pocket of freezing rain is likely near the northwest North Carolina/northeast Tennessee stateline. The communities of Trade, Mountain City, Shadey Valley may experience a period of icing early Tuesday morning. Possibly effecting eastern sections of Russell and Washington county as well. Another impact is a possible mountain wave high wind event across the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills early Tuesday morning. HREF and REFS probabilities show decent chance of 40-45 mph gusts. As the system moves east, deterministic and ensemble probabilities show the cold air advection changing rain to a wintry mix for the northern Plateau into the higher elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast/central sections of the far east Tennessee mountains. Light snow/ice accumulations are possible, generally 1 inch or less of snow. For Wednesday and Thursday, upper flow becomes more zonal with surface ridging producing drier and milder conditions. For Friday into next weekend, phasing of an another northern/southern stream systems look plausible with widespread rain. Colder air from wedging into the Carolinas may once again produce a wintry mix across sections of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Conditions will be improving at all sites over the next few hours as a front moves through, followed by a drier air mass. A return to VFR conditions is expected at all sites by 06Z, along with a shift of winds to a northerly direction. VFR conditions persist through tomorrow, although low VFR to MVFR cigs may return to CHA near the end of this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 50 39 47 / 0 60 100 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 49 38 45 / 0 40 100 80 Oak Ridge, TN 25 47 37 43 / 0 40 100 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 49 36 43 / 0 10 100 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...DGS