076
FXUS64 KMRX 201121
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Areas of dense fog early this morning.

- Above normal temperatures expected into early next week, with
  the warmest days today through Saturday.

- There will be showers and a few thunderstorms around at times
  today through Saturday, then drier weather before additional
  rain chances arrives by Tuesday.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Have issued a dense fog advisory, as observations and satellite
indicate a large part of our area is being impacted by dense fog.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog is beginning to develop across the area tonight, and it may
become dense across enough of the area for the issuance of an SPS
or dense fog advisory. Will monitor and issue if needed.

Low level flow will turn more southwesterly today ahead of an
approaching low pressure system over the Plains that tracks
east northeast and passes by to our north and off to our northeast
by early Saturday. Increasing isentropic lift will bring an area
of showers that will lift northeast later today into tonight.
Models show just enough limited instability that a few rumbles of
thunder may be embedded as well mainly south and central. There
will likely be a lull in the precipitation early Friday, but then
the upper level short wave and weak cold front will approach and
move across with another round of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms later Friday and Friday night. There will not be
any strong push of colder air into the region behind the front, so
temperatures will remain warmer than normal through the weekend
into early next week.

Dry conditions area likely Sunday and Monday as a ridge builds
over the region, then another system will bring a chance of rain
in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog and low cigs to start. Should see improvement to VFR by later
in the morning. Will see showers moving in first at CHA by late
in the day and finally to TRI early tonight. Will likely see
conditions dip to at least MVFR in some of these showers, and TRI
is likely to end the period with predominant MVFR. There is a very
low chance of a thunderstorm as well mainly CHA/TYS, but the
probability looks too low to include in the TAFs for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  61  75  63 /  60  60  40  80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  60  73  61 /  40  90  50  90
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  58  71  60 /  50  90  50  90
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  55  69  57 /  10  80  60  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
     Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-
     Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-
     Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
     Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest
     Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Lee-Russell-
     Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99