553
FXUS64 KMRX 110206
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
906 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 903 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

- Snow showers will diminish tonight, with some additional
  accumulation over the higher terrain of SW VA and the E TN
  mountains before the snow ends.


- Dry and more seasonal temperatures will return to the area mid
  to late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Allowed the valley and plateau advisories to expire. Made a few
tweaks to sky and weather as well.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

A deep trough is over the Ohio Valley. Currently, light snow can be
seen on radar. Snow totals this morning have been pretty weak with
only one inch reported at Newfound Gap and 3 inches at Mt LeConte.
Northern TN Valley locations received a dusting. Snow activity will
pickup this afternoon as a strong shortwave approaches. The CAMs
show light snow and scattered snow showers moving through the
region this afternoon and tapering off this evening as the trough
exits. Model soundings show good saturation through the
afternoon/evening. Afternoon through early evening will be the
best window for accumulation outside of high elevation areas. In
the Tennessee Valley, most areas can expect around half an inch or
less. Narrow bands of 1 to 2 inches can be expected in the Winter
Weather Advisory locations in the Valley but those higher totals
will be hit and miss. With the timing of this trough during max
heating, surface based CAPE will peak around 100 J/kg in the
Tennessee Valley. This will help enhance snow showers and bring us
those isolated higher totals. Highs will peak near or a few
degrees above freezing for most Tennessee Valley locations. The
stronger bands of snow should be able to overcome most of the
melting and travel impacts will be possible with the timing during
the school and work commutes. Snow activity in the TN Valley will
wind down by 8 PM or so.

The Northern Plateau and lower elevations of SW Virginia/NE
Tennessee have a better chance of getting one inch or maybe two. The
higher elevations of Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee will
likely see an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow. Snow is starting to
pick up in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee and Southwest
Virginia mountains. The heaviest snow and accumulation will be this
afternoon through midnight. Snow will continue in the higher
elevations after the trough passes this evening due to strong
northwesterly flow at 850mb. 850 flow will be 20 to 30 knots from
this afternoon through tonight, peaking this evening around 30 or 35
knots. Northwest flow starts to decrease shortly after midnight for
the Smokies. Moderate or heavy snow is expected in the higher
elevations especially above 5000 feet this afternoon through
midnight. Light snow will likely continue into the early morning
hours and snow should be over by daybreak on Tuesday. Additional
snow totals will be 4 to 6 inches for most mountain locations inside
the Winter Storm Warning. The highest peaks of the Smokies could see
an additional 6 to 9 inches.

Very cold temperatures and wind chills are expected tonight and
Tuesday morning. Lows will be in the lower to mid 20s for most of
the Tennessee Valley with wind chills in the teens. Higher
elevations will have wind chills in the single digits. Fortunately
temps will rebound quickly, returning back to near normal by
Wednesday. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday morning through at
least the end of the workweek. Guidance is split on whether the next
system arrives late this weekend or early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Snow showers and flurries around mainly TYS and TRI to start, but
these will end early in the period. Will include prob30 groups
both TYS and TRI for a few hours with MVFR conditions in these
snow showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected for the
period with a clearing sky from SW to NE tonight. West and
northwest winds will diminish overnight, then become more south
and southwest Tuesday afternoon around 10kts with higher gusts
especially TYS/TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             25  49  35  63 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  24  44  35  59 /  30   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       23  44  33  59 /  30   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              20  39  29  54 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Johnson-
     Southeast Carter-Southeast Monroe.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Lee-Russell-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99