146
FXUS64 KMRX 101213
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
713 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 707 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

- Snow showers will continue across the region, but especially in
  the higher terrain, today through late tonight before ending
  before daybreak Tue morning.

- Significant snowfall is expected from the Smokies north to
  roughly Sams Gap area. Totals should exceed 12" in the Smokies,
  with 7-9" possible elsewhere north to Sams Gap area. The
  remainder of the east TN mountains and higher terrain of our VA
  counties will see lighter amounts generally in the 1 to 4 inch
  range, with 1 to 3 possible in the northern plateau.

- In the valley, accumulations should be half an inch or less, and
  mostly occur this afternoon through tonight. That said, some
  localized amounts of 1-2" will almost certainly occur, but
  confidence in where that happens is very low.

- Dry and more seasonal temperatures will return to the area mid
  to late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Have issued a morning update to include the rest of our low
elevation areas in the TN valley (from Meigs, Rhea, and Monroe
counties northward) and southwest VA in a Winter Weather Advisory.
CAM guidance continues to indicate that vigorous snow shower
activity will develop between 16-18z timeframe later this morning,
with the distinct possibility of some narrow swaths of 1-2 inches
of snowfall in various parts of the TN valley by this afternoon
and evening. While ground temperatures should be warm enough to
rapidly melt the snow once precipitation ends, it seems that
snowfall rates could be enough to cause travel impacts for some
amount of time. Not to mention that it`s likely there would be
some drastically reduced visibilities in some of these snow
squalls. I have very low confidence in exactly where these
potential bands of locally higher snowfall amounts will occur, but
it seems there`s plenty of support for them occurring so I feel
the inclusion of an advisory is warranted.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

An upper trough is now firmly in place across the eastern CONUS,
with a deep upper low set to drop down from roughly the Chicago area
early this morning, through the MRX forecast area by this afternoon
and evening. This will contribute to increasing snow showers across
the region through late tonight before the system winds down before
daybreak Tuesday.

Regional radar imagery shows scattered rain/snow showers moving
through the forecast area north of roughly the I-40 corridor at the
moment. This should continue through daybreak as a vort lobe
embedded in the upper trough will move northeast out of Alabama
through our forecast area. Although, showers should be increasingly
tied to the terrain as time goes on.

As advertised in recent days, there should be a lull in the shower
activity across the forecast area from roughly daybreak through
early afternoon. This is modeled in nearly all of the high
resolution models and even the recent hourly NBM PoP grids. I did
keep showers going in the higher terrain through the day as NW flow
continues, but it`s not until later this afternoon that shower
activity picks back up across the region as the upper low
approaches/moves past us. Speaking of, model soundings show very
steep lapse rates later today, with the depth of the saturated layer
increasing significantly through the afternoon and evening hours.
This will promote widespread snow showers developing this afternoon
and evening, further adding to snowfall totals in the higher terrain
and likely giving some light accumulations to the northern plateau
and even the TN valley. Given the thermodynamic profiles in place,
there could be some convectively enhanced snow showers later on as
well, which would result in locally higher totals as well as reduced
visibilities for anyone out driving.

As far as storm total snowfall go, while I backed the max values in
the Smokies down just a bit, I didn`t make any wholesale changes to
the forecast really. Still looks like there are very good odds at
seeing a foot of snow out of this entire system for areas above
5,000 ft in the Smokies, with some +7-8" totals elsewhere in the
Winter Storm Warning (e.g. Sams Gap). I do believe we will need an
advisory for the northern plateau, so that will be coming out this
morning as well. The biggest unknown is what to do with the TN
valley. High res CAM guidance indicates there will be some banding
later today with the convectively enhanced shower activity. I firmly
believe we`ll see some 1-2" totals some where, but exactly where
those fall is anyone`s guess really. Similarly, these snow showers
could be heavy enough to cause visibility issues as well. Given the
uncertainty in where those accumulations will fall, it`s hard for me
to throw up an advisory. Will continue to advertise in the HWO,
social media, and so one for now.

Beyond Tue morning, tranquil and dry weather appears on tap through
the end of the week. There`s potential for more active weather to
return by the end of the weekend but as you might imagine, details
are far less than certain at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

VC -SHSN could still be possible at TRI this morning. Lull in
activity expected until later in the day when snow returns for TYS
and TRI. VCSH, possibly no snow at all for CHA today, so they may
keep VFR status all TAF period. Nonetheless, W-NW winds and gusts
will persist much of the day before decreasing after sunset. CIG
at TYS and TRI will waffle between VFR and MVFR with snow showers.
Heavier bands possible in the later afternoon time period.
Clearing expected tonight with calm conditions and high clouds at
CHA and TYS late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             38  25  50  36 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  34  23  44  36 /  40  20   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       34  23  44  34 /  40  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              32  21  39  29 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-
     Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-
     Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-
     Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest
     Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sullivan-Union-
     Washington TN.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Johnson-
     Southeast Carter-Southeast Monroe.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for Scott VA.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Lee-Russell-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...KS