Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
849 FXUS64 KMRX 231121 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 621 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 613 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Mild temperatures continue through the weekend and the first part of next week. - Another system brings the potential for rain and wind across the area Monday night into Wednesday, followed by colder temperatures for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Some light rain or drizzle may continue for a few more hours in the East Tennessee Mountains as northwesterly flow interacting with the terrain squeezes out any remaining moisture. Sunday and Monday will be dry with a ridge over the Southeast and high pressure centered overhead. By Monday night a shortwave moving through the Midwest and Ohio Valley will bring widespread showers and rain. Off and on showers will continue on Tuesday as a trough deepens over the Central U.S. The surface low will be centered near Wisconsin. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible at times but generally instability will likely be too low for organized storms with dew points struggling to reach 60. Rain will be tapering off by Wednesday afternoon as the cold front moves through. High pressure over the Central U.S. will move into the region by Thursday morning bringing cold, dry Canadian air as a deep trough sits over the Eastern U.S. Dry weather is expected for the Thanksgiving holiday and through most of the weekend. Highs will be mainly in the 40s on Thursday and Friday. The next system may approach late in the weekend around Sunday but uncertainty is high that far out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 There are still some MVFR CIGs around the region that may briefly affect the terminals over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected this TAF cycle. Clearing skies are expected by mid to late morning. Light winds will be northerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 44 70 57 / 0 0 0 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 41 66 51 / 0 0 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 64 40 64 51 / 0 0 0 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 37 64 46 / 0 0 0 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...McD