721
FXUS64 KMRX 030548
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1248 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

- Dry weather will return with a gradual warming trend through the
  much of the week.

- A system will approach the area late in the week and into the
weekend with showers and storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Currently early this morning, a closed low is centered just to our
east with high pressure expanding from our southwest. This pattern
has promoted increasing subsidence and cool temperatures / fog
development. Throughout the day, the closed low will move off to our
high pressure becoming gradually centered over the region. For
tonight, better radiational cooling conditions will allow
temperatures to drop further than this morning with several places
likely close to freezing. By Tuesday, the flow will become more
zonal aloft with height rises allowing for an increase in
temperatures to near normal. By Wednesday, high pressure will become
centered to our south with southerly flow helping to increase
temperatures beyond what has been seen in recent days. A similarly
dry and mild pattern will continue into Thursday as well.

Heading into Friday, the pattern will become more interesting as the
upstream jet near the Pacific Northwest causes troughing to dig
across the Great Plains. An area of low pressure is expected to
deepen as it moves into the Great Lakes with varying indications of
a warm sector or occlusion before the associated front arrives into
the weekend. Depending on how the system evolves, showers and storms
are possible with a potential severe threat, given sufficient
instability. This is shown more within the GFS deterministic run
with deep-layer shear exceeding 50 kts. However, the ensemble
probabilities largely keep sufficient instability to our south.
Regardless, a return of showers and possibly storms is increasingly
likely for the weekend with a low probability for some being strong
to severe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

MVFR cigs and vis, with tempo IFR/LIFR, are expected to continue
across the area overnight with fog and low clouds across the
Tennessee Valley. This will clear out by 14/15z Monday with VFR
conditions prevailing thereafter. Winds remain light and from the
WNW/NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  41  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  58  39  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  37  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  34  62  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...JB