238
FXUS64 KMRX 110133
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
833 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 815 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Strong gusty winds this afternoon will subside later today into
  tonight.

- NW flow snow event expected later today through early Thursday
  with accumulating snow mainly over parts of the E TN mountains
  and higher terrain of southwest Virgina.

- Low chances of precipitation across the north Friday night into
  Saturday.

- Stronger surge of cold air will arrive for Sunday into Monday.
  Lows in the teens with some higher elevation single digits
  expected Monday morning. Lower wind chills will add to the cold.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

There is medium confidence that snow showers will develop over the
northern half of the region late tonight into the early morning
hours. The HRRR shows fairly robust reflectivity developing in the
next few hours continuing through 4 or 5 AM EST as temperatures
fall behind the cold front. If snow showers are able to
materialize, a quick one to two inches of snow in isolated
locations would not be out of the question. Otherwise, it looks
like accumulation will be mainly confined to the higher peaks,
where we have a Winter Weather Advisory, due to northwest flow and
terrain forcing. Lower elevations will likely see less than one
inch of snow but if snow showers develop isolated higher amounts
will cause problems with the morning commute. A SPS has been
issued for locations that may see travel impacts outside of the
advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

The strong gusty winds that are ongoing over our area ahead of an
approaching cold front will subside later this afternoon into
tonight after the front exits to our east. Winds have already
gusted over 50 at Cove Mountain, and we have seen gusts to around
40 at the TYS airport. The wind advisory will be allowed to
continue as it is for now.

While moisture is limited, we will see some rain showers around the
time of the frontal passage, then as much colder air pushes in we
will see a rapid changeover to snow showers over the higher terrain,
and the valleys will likely see some snow showers and/or snow
flurries as well overnight.  The normally favored orographic lift
areas of the mountains will see accumulating snow in the northwest
flow and cold advection overnight into Thursday, with amounts of 1
to 3 inches likely in many of these upslope higher elevation
locations especially at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher
amounts may occur in a few of the highest mountain peaks. The winter
weather advisory for parts of SW VA and the E TN mountains will be
continued as is. A few locations across the northern half of the TN
valley may see some light accumulations of less than an inch, but
most valley areas are expected to see no accumulation or just a
dusting.

Following the snow`s exit Thursday, a short-lived cool-down can be
expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing
clouds. However, a weak system will bring increased chances for
precipitation to northern parts of the area late Thursday night into
Friday. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising which will bring the
warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday.

Models generally agree on a stronger cold front moving through
Saturday night followed by an area of cold high pressure with its
origins in Alaska and Western Canada. Current ensemble data suggests
little precipitation, but much colder air will move in behind the
front for Sunday and Monday. Monday morning lows are currently
forecast to be in the teens across the majority of the valley and
Plateau with some single digits for the highest elevations of the
mountains and parts of southwest Virginia. It currently appears
winds will be on the decline once we get later in the night
Sunday into Monday, which is good news and may suppress what could
be much worse wind chills. High pressure will eventually shift
eastward but will keep us dry through at least early Tuesday.

Another system may approach by Wednesday, so Pops will tick up once
again by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Light rain will continue off and on for the next few hours. After
midnight a changeover to light snow can be expected near TRI.
Snow chances are lower near TYS. CHA looks dry after midnight.
MVFR CIGs are likely at TRI and TYS and will linger late into the
morning despite a cold frontal passage late tonight or early
morning. Winds have decreased at the surface but are still around
30 knots at 2k feet, so LLWS was added for the next few hours.
Winds will decrease through the night and become more westerly or
northwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             29  46  30  58 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  30  41  31  54 /  30  10  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       29  41  30  54 /  20  10  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              28  35  26  46 /  70  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Russell-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD