887
FXUS64 KMRX 110613
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
113 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1159 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

- NW flow snow event will persist through mid-day today, with
  accumulating snow mainly over parts of the E TN mountains and
  higher terrain of southwest Virgina.

- Light snowfall accumulation possible across the north Friday.

- Stronger surge of cold air will arrive for Sunday into Monday.
  Lows in the teens with some higher elevation single digits
  expected Monday morning. Lower wind chills will add to the cold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

The colder temperatures expected are lagging behind a bit even
though the cold front has moved through and winds are out of the
northwest now. Currently, the coldest temperatures are in SW VA,
where snow has been reported the last couple of hours. NWly flow
paired with low-level moisture through the later morning or early
afternoon hours today, will provide what`s necessary for NW flow
or upslope flow snowfall across the Southern Appalachians,
northeast TN, and southwest VA. Guidance hasn`t really deviated
much, even from 24 hours ago. Still expecting 1 to 3 inches with
up to 4 inches across the highest peaks. Over the next couple of
hours this morning before sunrise, convective like snow showers
will be possible which may bring decent accumulation in a short
period of time. Much colder air from aloft has yet to move in,
which will increase the mid-level lapse rates. Narrow bands of
snowfall are possible, according to recent CAMs runs. Winds
dropped off during the afternoon hours in the lower elevations,
but hung on in the higher elevations. At the time of this
discussion and issuance, the Wind Advisory will expire at its
posted time of 1 AM EST. Winds across higher terrain have
considerably dropped off over the past couple of hours.

Following the snow`s exit later today, a brief cool-down can be
expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing
cloud cover. This won`t last long for some, as a persistent low in
the model runs the past couple of days, has hinted at a quick
clip of light precipitation Friday, mainly snow, north of the TN
state line. The current total snowfall forecast calls for a few
tenths to just over an inch of snow. Highest peaks may see closer
to 2 inches from this short-lived event. Not expecting too much in
the way of impacts.

The next anticipated event comes this weekend with a pretty
substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into Monday. Confidence
isn`t quite there yet on what precipitation the area may see, as
it is struggling to grasp a system over the Gulf around the same
time as a system to the north. Late Saturday into Sunday, a
fairly strong Arctic high will dive down from Canada, peaking near
1045 mb over the Northern and Central Plains. A pressure gradient
will form over our area, which will develop gusty conditions
Sunday. The "good" news so far, is that the strongest winds will
not line up with the coldest temperatures later that night/Monday
morning, so we may escape much colder wind chills. Still, Sunday
even during the day will struggle to reach freezing, for many, and
with the winds will make it feel 10 degrees or more colder. Winds
hanging on over the highest elevations, however, may bring below
zero feel-like temperatures.

Once we warm Monday, we begin to recover quickly with return flow
from the west and southwest developing again. The strong high will
weaken as it eventually moves east of us early next week,
providing the return of warmth. We will also stay dry for more
than a day early next week with ample sunshine. We continue to
warm even into mid to late week, around the time period the next
system is forecast to arrive.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

At TRI, scattered snow showers will be int the area for the next few
hours, and may drop vis/cigs to MVFR at times. Cigs should settle
into MVFR late in the night, and stay there until the afternoon. TYS
will have cigs on the VFR/MVFR margins through the night, then
lift/scatter in the late morning to early afternoon. CHA will
maintain VFR cigs overnight, scattering out around sunrise. Winds
for the next few hours will be 10-15 kt, with a diminishing trend
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             47  33  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  42  32  54  33 /  10  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       42  31  53  30 /  10  20   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              37  27  46  30 /   0  50  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Russell-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS