645
FXUS64 KMRX 122316 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
616 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

- Moderating temperatures and quiet weather on tap through the
  end of the week.

- Low chances of rain Friday night, slightly better chances
  Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Not much going on in the forecast. Upper troughing will continue to
slowly push eastward tomorrow. In the low-levels, weak ridging
returns by Friday, allowing temperatures to continue to moderate. A
slight chance for showers will be in place Friday night across
northeast TN and southwest VA. This is due to a strong upper jet
residing over the area coinciding with some low-end mid-level
moisture. Most areas will stay dry, but some could see a few light
showers.

Better chances for showers exist Saturday night into Sunday as a
weak cold front comes through. The best chances for showers will be
across our northern areas as these areas will be closer to the
better moisture and dynamics. Having said that, this is a weak
front and will be low impact. Even those areas that have better
chances of rain will likely only see amounts around one tenth of
an inch or less. Also, there isn`t a big push of cold air behind
this front; so no worry of any frozen precip or much colder
temperatures behind it.

By Monday or Tuesday of next week, probabilities increase that we
could see a more widespread rainfall across the whole area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Potential for some fog exists tonight at TRI, as some model
guidance is hinting at reduced visibilities there. It will depend
on winds going calm. The TAF will have the calm wind/MVFR vis
scenario, but if winds stay up, fog will not likely form.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             39  67  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  38  63  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       36  63  36  64 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              34  58  32  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS