Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
558 FXUS64 KMRX 092344 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 644 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 639 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Dry and warmer temperatures today and Wednesday prior to a cold front late Wednesday. Higher terrain light snow possible behind the system Thursday. - Colder morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend and early next week possibly dropping into the low 20`s or teens. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Currently the sky is clear and blue for most of the eastern Tennessee Valley as, go check it out if you haven`t seen it recently. We`re expecting to see some breaks from the clouds today and, to some extent, tomorrow with southerly surface winds and higher pressure we`ll see temperatures warmer than we`ve seen for several days, back into the 50`s for many on Wednesday. These temperatures won`t last for very long as our next system will move into the region heading into Thursday as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region and drags along with it a cold front into the southeast US. Precipitation with this system looks to move in late Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a very classic northwest flow set up. We`ll likely see light rain in the valley at times, with temperatures cold enough that the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the East Tennessee Mountains pick up snow... Especially the northwest facing sides. Currently have the snow mostly falling between 00z Thursday through 12z Thursday, but we could see the peaks of the mountains get flurries throughout Thursday. Expect snow accumulations to remain mainly above 2,500 feet, with the peaks of the mountains topping out around the 2-4 inch mark. Eventually behind the precipitation upper heights will be rising which will bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday. Things get a bit murkier at the end of the weekend and next week due to potential southern and northern stream systems merging, but the one thing models agree on is a substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into early Monday. Coldest temperatures of the forecast (and season so far) will likely occur Monday morning with low 20`s across the southern Valley and dipping into the teens in southwest Virginia. Kids will want to bundle up for the bus ride to school Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Strong wind event ahead of a cold front will induce LLWS tonight into tomorrow morning. As the morning atmosphere warms, winds will increasingly mix to the surface, bringing widespread 25+ knot gusts, KTYS may slightly over-perform given favorable SW wind orientation. Late in the period FROPA will yield worsening conditions, with CIGs likely falling to MVFR for most of the region by the end of the TAF period. A 30 percent chance of light rain exists at KTRI associated with the frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 56 29 46 / 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 52 30 42 / 0 20 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 52 29 41 / 0 20 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 48 28 36 / 0 40 60 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...Wellington