724
FXUS64 KMRX 110549
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1249 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Zero or slightly below zero wind chill values continue in the
  higher terrain through mid morning.

- Moderating temperatures and quiet weather on tap through the
  end of the week.

- Rain might return by the end of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Some light snow or snow flurries are still ongoing across the
forecast area at the moment. However, satellite imagery shows that
the cloud deck is rapidly diminishing, so any ongoing snow
showers should wind down by 09z or so. Have left the expiration
times of the winter headlines as-is for the time being, but will
monitor observations over the next 2-3 hours to see if we can let
go of those before the 12z timeframe.

For today, very cold temperatures with wind chill values around
or slightly below zero will continue in the higher elevations
through shortly after daybreak today. We`ll then begin to moderate
pretty quickly as low and mid level flow turns more southwesterly
today. While the upper levels retain some degree of cyclonic flow
aloft, Pacific high pressure will move in from the west by Wed,
allowing temperatures to rebound into the 50s to low 60s Wed
afternoon, and firmly into the 60s across low elevation areas by
week`s end in response to a strong upper ridge developing over the
central CONUS.

There`s fairly high odds that dry and largely clear/sunny conditions
prevail through the first half of the weekend. Some guidance shows
some light precip clipping the northern parts of the CWA on Friday
as a warm front brushes by the region beneath a southern stream jet
streak. But confidence in that occurring is low, and any precip
would be light and transitory on Friday. Otherwise the dry
conditions likely continue through Saturday before models show a
stronger Great Lakes low dragging a cold front through the forecast
area on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

A few remaining flurries tonight across the northeastern portion
of the area but dissipating cloud cover will bring an end to
activity. VFR conditions through the period, a few gusty winds
especially during the afternoon hours to near 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             49  35  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  45  37  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       44  33  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              39  29  54  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Johnson-
     Southeast Carter-Southeast Monroe.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Lee-
     Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...Wellington