Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
599 FXUS64 KMRX 152318 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 618 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 616 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025 - Very cold conditions will continue tonight. A warming trend will begin Tuesday, with above normal temperatures expected by Thursday. - Strong gusty winds are expected across the East Tennessee mountains and foothills Thursday into Thursday night. - Rain chances return area-wide Thursday. Light snow may be possible in the higher elevations on the backside of the system Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025 A deep trough will continue to lift north and east into the mid- week. Weak ridging building into the region will allow for continued dry conditions with a warming trend over the next few days. While we have escaped the significant cold, morning lows will remain on the frigid side with most of the area in the 20s Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be more seasonal Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. By Thursday, an amplified trough will dig through the central CONUS, greatly enhancing strong warm and moist air advection into the region. Temperatures will climb above normal and precipitation chances will increase area-wide with an initial period of isentropic ascent followed by a frontal passage Thursday night. A period of strong gusty winds are also expected in the mountains as a SSWly H85 jet near 50-60kts swings atop the southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley region. Some light snow may be possible on the backside of the system early Friday conditional on the alignment of northwest flow with lingering moisture availability. The above normal temperatures in place ahead of the system suggest light accumulations would likely be limited to higher terrain. High pressure builds in post-frontal passage, with drier and relatively cooler conditions Friday afternoon. While the upper-level pattern will be quasi-zonal, weak impulses could result in some light isentropic ascent induced rain for the weekend. As a result, NBM does introduce 40% or lower PoPs Saturday night into Sunday. Uncertainties aside, this would more than likely be non-impactful rain. Temperatures are likely to return to slightly above normal values for the weekend as well. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025 VFR conditions will continue with light and variable winds and limited cloud cover. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 24 52 32 55 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 50 32 53 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 23 48 32 50 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 46 28 48 / 0 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS AVIATION...BW