056
FXUS64 KMRX 071752 AAB
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
152 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

1. Cooler and less humid today as high pressure builds into the
area.

Discussion:

A weak front is currently moving through the area, identified by a
wind shift and a dewpoint gradient. Through the day, we will see
falling dewpoints and rising surface pressure behind the exiting
front, with a dry NW flow aloft. A pressure gradient ahead of the
building high may result in winds of 10-15 mph with around 20 mph.
The high will be centered over our area tonight, and winds will
drop to calm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms return Sunday.

2. Uncertainty is high from Monday onward but low rain chances seem
likely early next week.

Discussion:

Saturday will be dry with high pressure near the surface and a broad
trough from the Great Plains to the Northeast. A ridge is confined
to the Gulf Coast. Highs Saturday will be mainly in the lower 80s.
By Sunday, the broad trough dips southward a bit and a cold front
will move through the region Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms
can be expected on Sunday ahead of the cold front. The GFS suggests
some good deep layer shear around 30 to 40 knots and possibly some
decent instability with CAPE around 1000 J/kg. We will continue to
monitor this system for severe potential. It seems like a few strong
to severe storms will be possible. This looks like a clean frontal
passage with a drop in dew points and a wind shift by Monday
morning.

Early next week, the longwave trough remains over the Eastern U.S. A
shortwave may move through the pattern at some point but models are
not in good agreement on where and when. The GFS still has a wetter
pattern than the Euro early next week. With high uncertainty from
Monday onward, keeping low POPs in the extended forecast seems
appropriate this time of year with this pattern. Early next week,
temps will likely be slightly below normal with highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s. Lows will be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR flight categories expected through the period, although some
mid clouds will be making their way into the KTYS and KTRI
vicinity by the tail end of the period. Will go ahead and keep
some gusts at terminals through the afternoon hours, but high
pressure will build in from the west tonight for calm, or nearly
calm conditions tonight and tomorrow. Lastly, some guidance
indicates fog development tonight at KTRI but that is mostly and
outlier and given the current temp and dewpoint spreads, this
seems unlikely. Will leave it out of the KTRI forecast for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  61  87  68 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  58  83  66 /   0   0  10  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  58  82  65 /   0   0  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  54  79  62 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...CD