Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
974 FXUS64 KMRX 240526 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1226 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Fog expected overnight - Mild temperatures continue through mid-week. - A system brings the potential for rain and wind across the area Monday night into Wednesday, followed by colder temperatures for Thanksgiving. - Temperatures moderate by the weekend, with another potential rain maker moving in by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Currently cloud-free skies and surface high pressure are combining to bring another clear and cool night tonight. Am expecting to see some patchy fog develop overnight. A dense fog advisory may be needed for some locations if visibilities begin to drop quickly. A stretch of dry weather will hold through Monday, thanks to a ridge anchored over the Southeast and strong high pressure overhead. Monday itself looks to be the standout day of the forecast, with abundant sunshine and comfortable highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s. By late Monday night, conditions begin to change as a shortwave tracks through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, spreading showers into the region. Rain will be fairly widespread, with intermittent showers continuing through Wednesday until the cold front clears the area. A few thunderstorms may develop Tuesday into Tuesday night. While instability appears elevated during the day Tuesday, forecast soundings suggest the potential for surface-based convection later Tuesday night. Widespread measurable rainfall is expected with this system with the highest amounts expected across southeast Tennessee, likely over 1 inch, tapering of to closer to 0.5 inches in northeast TN and southwest VA. The most significant non-precipitation impact looks to be strong winds across the east Tennessee mountains, with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph. This is tied to a strengthening 850mb jet accompanying the system. Peak winds are expected late Monday night through Tuesday night, and some mountain wave activity is possible depending on how the setup evolves. By Wednesday afternoon, showers will diminish as the cold front passes. High pressure building out of the Central U.S. will settle in by Thursday, ushering in colder, drier Canadian air beneath a deep trough over the East. Thanksgiving and much of the holiday weekend should feature dry conditions, with highs mainly in the 40s Thursday and Friday. Another system may approach late in the weekend, around Sunday, though confidence remains low at this range. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Some patchy fog is developing in some locations, but at the same time high level clouds are trying to move in from West/Middle Tennessee, which could stave off the densest fog. Fog most likely at TRI, followed by TYS. Outside of fog overnight expect VFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 58 69 57 / 0 60 90 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 53 67 56 / 0 40 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 65 52 65 54 / 0 50 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 47 64 54 / 0 20 80 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...