Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
306 FXUS64 KMRX 040505 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1205 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1046 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 - Dry weather with a gradual warming trend through much of the week. - A system will approach the area late in the week and into the weekend with showers and a few storms possible. - Much colder weather expected by early next week behind a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1046 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 Dew point depressions near zero, calm wind, and a clear sky means a lot of radiational fog development is expected (and already occurring in spots) tonight into Tuesday morning. Areas of dense fog are expected for the morning commute with improving conditions by mid-morning. With high pressure in control, mostly clear conditions are expected through the middle of the week. A fast moving shortwave across the Northeast CONUS will bring a trailing cold front across the area on Wednesday night, but limited moisture means no precipitation chances are expected for our area. Shortwave ridging quickly builds back in by Thursday afternoon with warming temperatures and synoptic zonal flow aloft. A more progressive trough will approach the Mississippi Valley by late Friday with an associated surface low pressure near the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will move eastward across the forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning with widespread scattered rain showers. A series of shortwaves will amplify the upper-level trough across the Appalachians next Sunday night into Monday. At this time, deterministic and ensemble members are in good agreement. The LREF indicates about a 70+ percent chances of temperatures less than 32 degF across the valley next Monday night, which is a strong signal 7 days out for a widespread freeze across the region. With northwest orographic flow and 850mb temperatures below 0C, some light snowfall will be possible for higher elevations above 4000 ft across the mountains. A significant return of cold air appears likely early to mid next week bringing an early taste of winter. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 Dew point depressions are at or near zero across the region with fog and low clouds already beginning to develop near river valleys specifically impacting TYS and TRI. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected early this morning, mainly near TYS and TRI, with conditions improving after 14z with VFR conditions by Tuesday afternoon. Winds remain light with high pressure across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 41 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 37 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 33 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...JB AVIATION...JB