167
FXUS64 KMRX 101111 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
611 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Dry and warmer to start today, before a cold front arrival later
  tonight. Gusty winds ahead of the front for the forecast area.
  Wind Advisory in effect for all except the southern part of the
  forecast area.

- NW flow snow event expected later today through early Thursday
  with accumulating snow over parts of the Southern Appalachians
  and higher terrain of southwest Virgina. A Winter Weather
  Advisory has been issued.

- We will warm up again late week with low chances of
  precipitation across the north.

- Stronger cold front Sunday into Monday will considerably drop
  temperatures. Lows in the teens with some single digits Monday
  morning. Cold wind chills also possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

The forecast for today has come into better agreement over Wind
Advisory level winds for everywhere north of the southern valley
and southern plateau later today. As well as an accumulating snow
event for northwest flow prone locations of the forecast area;
Southern Appalachians and parts of southwest Virginia.
Temperatures will be warmer today, however, cloud cover will be on
the rise.

Almost advisory level winds are being observed at Cove Mountain
with gusts in the upper 30s at the time of this discussion. A WSW
LLJ will increase into the overnight hours, bringing increasing
winds to the higher terrain. Later in the day as mixing occurs,
the gusty conditions will translate to the surface for the lower
elevations, hence the advisory covering the day-time. A heavier
weighted blend of the HREF/RRFS was used to capture the usually
overperforming SWly winds for the valley. Gusty winds will
continue into Thursday morning for the higher terrain, slowly
decreasing behind the FROPA. A Wind Advisory is in effect later
this morning first beginning in the mountains, expanding to the
lower elevations, later finishing for the mountains early
tomorrow.

Confidence has also increased on higher snowfall amounts for the
higher terrain with the latest guidance. The day will start warm,
but temperatures will fall coinciding with the cold front later
this evening. Rain will transition to a rain/snow mix, and then
eventually all snow for elevations primarily above 2500 feet.
Low-level moisture, NW winds, and temperatures below freezing are
evident on forecast soundings, all supporting northwest flow snow.
Snow will end early to mid Thursday when low-level winds drop off
and lose the NWly component. Total snowfall accumulations will
generally be 1 to 3 inches with higher mountain tops possibly
seeing above that, for example, LeConte may see up to 5 inches.
It`s possible some light snowfall may be seen across lower
elevations of the northern valley and plateau, but is generally
not favorable with NWly flow due to more downsloping on the valley
side, which means drier. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
and will begin mid-day, running 24 hours highlighting the
potential for the aforementioned areas.

Following the snow`s exit Thursday, a short cool-down can be
expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing
cloud cover. However, precipitation from a weak system will bring
increased chances to northern parts of the CWA Friday. Meanwhile,
upper heights will be rising which will bring the warmer
temperatures back for Friday and Saturday.

Later this weekend becomes a bit complicated in regards to
more precipitation due to potential interaction of southern and
northern stream systems, but the one thing models agree on, is a
substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into early Monday. Strong
high pressure is expected to barrel its way through, originating
from Alaska and Western Canada, where temperatures there have been
in the 50s below at night, but we will not see that here. Monday
morning lows are currently forecast to be in the teens with some
single digits for the highest elevations and parts of southwest
Virginia. Wind appears will be on the decline once we get later in
the night Sunday into Monday, which is good news and may suppress
what could be much worse wind chills. High pressure will
eventually shift eastward but will keep us dry through at least
early Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Gusty winds during the day will be the main aviation impacts this
period. A low level jet is ramping up and will peak across the
area between 12-18Z. Winds near 2 kft will be in the 35-45 kt
range overnight, then as the boundary layer mixes later in the
morning, these SW winds will mix to the surface and be channeled
up the TN Valley. Gusts around 40 kt are expected at TYS. These
winds will decrease in the late afternoon. A front will move into
the area late in the day, and bring MVFR cigs and light rain
showers to TYS and TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  30  45  31 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  52  29  40  30 /  30  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  29  40  29 /  20  10   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              49  27  35  24 /  50  50  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this afternoon
     for Anderson-Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-
     Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
     Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
     Northwest Monroe-Roane-Scott TN-Sullivan-Union-Washington
     TN.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
     Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast
     Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this afternoon
     for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS