025
FXUS64 KMRX 080547
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1247 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Precipitation moves in tonight, with light snow accumulations
  expected across the higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and
  southwest Virginia.

- A Winter Weather Advisory continues for late tonight into
  Monday. The Monday morning commute in these counties could be
  impacted by accumulating snow, or reduced visibilities from
  falling snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

WV imagery shows a shortwave trough located over northern MS/West
TN. Precip ahead of this trough will spread across our area through
the night. Initially, low level temperatures indicate rain, except
for the highest mountain peaks above 5000 ft. A cold front is
located just to our west, and will start to push southeast late
tonight as high pressure builds toward the region from the Great
Lakes. As the column cools behind the front and the upper trough
moves overhead, there will be some saturation getting into the
dendrite growth zone along with falling surface temperatures,
allowing for some snow to fall in northern sections. This occurs
around 12-15Z. SW VA and the mountains of E TN will continue to see
light snow accumulations through the day, while there may be more of
a rain/snow mix in northern TN Valley locations, such as the Tri-
Cities area. Not much has changed with the model depictions of
likely snow accumulations - outside of the highest terrain,
accumulations will be fairly limited to less than 1 inch. In the
higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and SW VA, persistent
northwest flow through Monday in the wake of the shortwave may yield
localized accumulations of 13 inches through Monday evening,
primarily along mountain peaks near the North Carolina border. Snow
probs from the HREF are 80-90% chance for 2 or more inches, and the
NBM is around 50%. Therefore, the mountain zones down to Blount
County will be added to the Winter Weather Advisory. The timing of
the changeover to snow in the morning could impact the morning
commute in parts of SW VA and NE TN, with some roads getting covered
in the mountains by the end of the day.

No major changes to the rest of the forecast. A generally zonal flow
regime is anticipated through midweek, supporting modest warming
with highs reaching the 50s by Wednesday. The next synoptic system
approaches late in the week, with temperatures initially mild ahead
of the front, followed by a pronounced cold advection behind the low
and frontal passage Thursday into Friday. Precip chances with this
system appear to be trending down, and are mainly across our
northern sections; QPF is very light as well. A much colder air mass
is forecast to settle in for the weekend, with morning lows
potentially in the teens and daytime highs limited to the 20s and
30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Deteriorating aviation conditions are expected over the next
several hours as rain moves in from the southwest. This will first
occur at CHA before spreading to TYS and TRI before sunrise.
Reductions to MVFR are expected with periods of IFR expected. Rain
will gradually shift towards the mountains through the afternoon.
MVFR is still likely to linger after rain moves out with northerly
to northwesterly winds strengthening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             48  28  51  36 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  44  27  49  37 /  40   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       44  26  47  36 /  30   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              40  25  43  30 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Russell-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW