290
FXUS65 KMSO 220904
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
204 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Sunday Night Cold Front: Burst of moderate to heavy snow and
  gusty wind over mountain passes. Changeable road conditions.

- Mid-Week Wintry Mix: Light snow returns Wednesday morning. Snow levels
  rise and precipitation transitions to a rain/snow mix later in
  the day for valleys.

- Arctic Watch (Nov 28-29): Monitor forecasts closely if you have
  travel plans, as this could bring widespread winter driving
  conditions.


Today through Monday: Stable conditions this morning will result
in areas of valley fog and low stratus. Partial clearing this
afternoon yields unseasonably mild temperatures, with valley highs
in the 40s.

A pattern change begins Sunday as the high pressure ridge flattens.
Precipitation starts over the northwest MT mountains by afternoon,
preceding a vigorous cold front that will sweep through the Northern
Rockies Sunday night. Sunday night impacts:

   -Pass Level: Expect a burst of moderate/heavy snow (2-5 inches)
    and 30-40 mph gusts, resulting in rapidly changing conditions
    for travelers.

   -Valleys: Falling temperatures may lead localized icy spots,
    especially southwest Montana by Monday morning. While snow
    levels will crash to valley floors behind the front, limited
    moisture means valley accumulation will likely be restricted
    to a dusting.

On Monday, expect a chilly, blustery day with remnant showers,
gusty westerly winds, and valley highs stuck in the 30s.

Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day: Confidence is increasing
regarding a fetch of subtropical moisture arriving Wednesday
morning. Initially, low snow levels may produce light snow
accumulations on valley floors. Warmer air will gradually lift
snow levels from south to north late Wednesday into Thursday,
transitioning valley precipitation to a rain/snow mix. Slick road
conditions are a concern, especially during overnight/morning
periods.

Next Friday and Saturday (Nov 28-29): We are closely monitoring
this period as blended guidance (NBM) shows a 60% chance of
Arctic air entering western Montana (30% chance for north- central
Idaho). If this Arctic front interacts with sufficient moisture,
widespread travel impacts are likely, stay tuned.


&&

.AVIATION...LIFR to IFR conditions are a concern in valley locations
this morning as stable high pressure encourages fog and low
stratus development. Improvement to VFR will be slow, with some
deep valleys potentially struggling to break out until early
afternoon. While VFR generally prevails elsewhere, increasing mid-
level moisture will result in mountain obscurations across
northwest Montana. Surface winds remain light and variable today.
Expect a persistence forecast tonight, with some valley fog and
stratus redeveloping by early Sunday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$