527
FXUS65 KMSO 191052
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
352 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Foggy Mornings: Areas of valley fog are likely each day through
  Friday.

- Mild Weekend with spotty rainfall: Expect an unseasonably mild
  (10 to 15 degrees above average) weekend with periods of rain.
  Highest passes could receive light snow amounts.

- Sharp cold front Monday to bring gusty winds, cooler
  temperatures with a few of inches of snow at mountain passes.

A weak system moving through today will provide scattered showers,
especially from Missoula southwards. Temperatures will continue
run above average through the weekend. Another weak system could
bring a few showers to north-central Idaho on Thursday.

Areas of valley fog and low clouds are the primary near-term
concern each morning through Friday.

Though the NBM is carrying 20 to 40 percent chance for rain
showers Saturday in the valleys from west-central to northwest
Montana, the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are fairly dry. The
middle-of-the-road NBM shows several hundredths of rain generally
across far northwestern Montana and along the Idaho/Montana border
through Saturday evening. Despite some high clouds streaming
overhead, it should turn out to be a pleasant Saturday with highs
getting into the mid to upper 40s to near 50 degrees!

On Sunday, it will be kind of similar to Saturday, but there could
be a few more areas that experience light precipitation. Idaho and
west-central valleys have a 20 to 30 percent chance for rain, but
40 to 60 percent chance across northwest Montana (valleys and
mountains). Snow levels will generally be above 5500 feet, so any
snow accumulation will be light at higher passes.

The Monday cold front will be a breezy one. Western wind gusts
between 30 and 40 mph are possible(60-70%). The probabilities for
wind gusts exceeding 50 mph include: 50 percent along the Divide
and in the Anaconda area, 20 to 30 percent in the Bitterroot
Valley and Mission Valley. Snow showers could deposit a dusting up
to a few inches at area passes by Monday night. Snowfall ranges
through Tuesday morning for mountain passes include:Trace to 3
inches at Lookout Pass, Trace to 2 inches Lolo Pass, Trace to 1
inch at Lost Trail, and trace to 6 inches at Marias Pass, and
maybe a trace at MacDonald and Homestake passes.

As for Wednesday and Thanksgiving...several days ago, it looked
like it could have been more active and much colder. Ensemble
models have continued to trend drier, but yet with near
seasonable temperatures. Average highs by Thanksgiving are as
follows:  Kalispell, Missoula, Butte, and Salmon are at 35 deg.
F., and Orofino Idaho is at 43 deg. F. The ensembles are not
totally dry, as they both keep a chance for snow showers in the
mountains, albeit light.

The day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday, can be a busy travel
day...it looks unsettled. The NBM has 20 to 40 percent chance for
snow in the valleys, and 60 to 80 percent chance for snow
occurrence in the mountains.



&&

.AVIATION...An upper level trough will bring showers across the
region today. Intermittent mountain obscurations and lower
ceilings are possible. Patchy fog is possible tonight into
Thursday morning. While a weak disturbance could bring a few
showers across north-central Idaho Thursday, the remainder of the
region will have VFR flying after any morning fog burns off. Low
clouds or fog is again possible Thursday night into Friday(Nov.
21).


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$