704
FXUS65 KMSO 260853
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
153 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled Holiday Travel (Today & Thanksgiving):
Expect widespread light snow this morning. Risk for wintry
mix/freezing rain along I-90, with snow in northwest Montana
Thursday morning.

- Winter Weather Impacts Increase Thursday Night-Friday:
Widespread snow western Montana, flash freeze potential Glacier
Region and Flathead/Mission valleys Thursday night/early Friday.
Snow for the passes in north-central Idaho.


Today through Thanksgiving Morning: Pacific moisture is
overspreading the region, bringing light snow and slick travel
this morning. Snow levels are near 2,000 feet but will rise
throughout the day.

   -Impacts: Travel disruptions on passes (3-6" snow) and
    potential slick spots in valleys (Trace-3") where road temps
    remain near freezing.

   -Freezing Rain Threat: As the next moisture surge arrives early
    Thursday, there is a 20-30% chance of freezing rain for the
    Missoula and Bitterroot valleys, and along I-90 west of
    Missoula.

   -NW Montana: Cold air will likely remain trapped in northwest
    valleys, keeping precipitation as light snow from US-2
    northward through Thursday morning.

Thursday Afternoon through Friday: A dynamic winter storm system
will impact the region in three phases:

1. Thursday Afternoon (Warm Phase): A warm front pushes valley
temps into the mid-30s. Precipitation will fall as rain/wet snow;
roads likely wet but above freezing.

2. Thursday Night (Arctic Plunge): A modified Arctic front
crosses the Divide Thursday evening, causing temperatures to
plummet.

    -Hazards: Flash freeze of wet roadways and a rapid transition
     widespread snow.

    -Winter Storm Watch: In effect for the Glacier Park region due to
     higher confidence in prolonged snow and travel impacts.

3. Friday: The front works southward throughout western Montana
with a transition to snow for valley locations.

    -Mesoscale Banding: Strong frontogenesis and deep moisture
     support intense snow bands along the boundary.

Historically areas most impacted by these events include along
US-2 (West Glacier to Marias Pass), the Flathead/Mission Valleys,
and the I-90/US-93/Hwy 200 corridors from Missoula to the Divide.
Additionally, passes along the ID/MT border will experience slick
conditions through the day.

Extended Outlook: Saturday looks colder and mostly dry, followed
by a persistent northwest flow next week that keeps snow chances
and potential Arctic air intrusions in the forecast. In
particular, December 2nd-3rd stands out as a potential
significant impact period.


&&

.AVIATION...A weak disturbance will bring deteriorated aviation conditions
this morning, characterized by widespread precipitation, lowered ceilings,
and reduced visibility. Valley terminals are likely to drop to MVFR or IFR
categories through sunrise before precipitation diminishes areawide. While
mountain obscurations will remain common throughout the day, terminal sites
should improve to VFR conditions by this afternoon. Winds will remain light
overall.

The next round of precipitation arrives in north-central Idaho late this
evening, gradually spreading northward by Thursday morning. Snow levels
will generally remain above valley floors, except in northwest Montana
where levels will hover near 3000 feet. Notably, there is a 20-30% chance
of freezing rain Thursday morning for the Bitterroot and Missoula
valleys.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Wednesday for
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Flathead/Mission Valleys...
     Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region...
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     afternoon for West Glacier Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$