558
FXUS66 KMTR 011815
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1015 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Light burst of offshore winds tonight in the North Bay, more
   substantial offshore winds Wednesday morning across Bay Area.

 - Quiet again after Wednesday into the weekend.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday.

 - King Tides arrive December 2 - 7.

 - Watching the next potential pattern change towards the middle
   of the month. Some signs point towards more active weather for
   our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(Today and tonight)

The forecaster`s lament this morning... Many times in the summer
this past season, we were humbled by fog and stratus. It seems to
be the case again these past few days as the Tule fog and stratus
have impacted a decent portion of our Bay Area forecast counties.
In particular, the North Bay, but that doesn`t mean the rest of
the Bay Area hasn`t been tricky. The forecast challenge for today
will be the timing and the status of the stratus and its effect on
high temperatures. Yesterday, many models were pointing to a few
hours of afternoon clearing for the North Bay; however, that ended
up being quite limited and late in the afternoon if any places
saw sun. This kept high temperatures lower than expected, even
with the changes. Given there isn`t much sign for a huge pattern
change, opted to go with an even more pessimistic forecast than
yesterday. Which means, little no to clearing again for the North
and East Bay and that should keep temperatures similar to yesterday,
perhaps a hair warmer if one holds out hope for a peak of sun
earlier in the afternoon. Any clearing that does happen, it should
be filled back in by the evening, leading to another cloudy
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(Tuesday through Sunday)

You guessed, it not much change in the extended forecast. An inside
slider is set to dig into the Great Basin midweek, leading to gusty
offshore winds for the North Bay, East Bay, and Santa Cruz
mountains. Look for northeast winds to gust to about 25-35 mph with
locally higher gusts up to 45 mph for higher ridge tops and favored
gaps and passes. Winds gradually increase late Tuesday night, peak
Wednesday morning, and wind down during the afternoon and evening
hours. After that fairly quiet weather remains on tap as upper level
ridging noses into the region. Ensembles hold weak ridging through
the weekend with more zonal flow returning after that.

The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 day outlook has us leaning
above normal for temperatures, with near normal or just below normal
chances for precipitation. Given the pattern, this leads to some
uncertainty in the forecast so stay tuned in to see how the forecast
evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

Again a mix bag of LIFR to VFR conditions across the region this
morning with flight categories forecast to return to VFR by
midmorning or early afternoon. Offshore winds aloft are helping to
allow for drying conditions in the boundary layer with offshore
winds prevailing over the San Francisco Bay terminals through much
of the day. There remains low confidence for low ceilings and/or
fog development overnight and into Tuesday morning. Onshore winds
are have a greater potential to return to the Bay Area terminals
by early Tuesday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR forecast to improve between 19Z-21Z.
Northeast to east winds 8-12 kt today, becoming light and variable
tonight. Low confidence of sub-VFR ceilings early Tuesday
morning. Greater potential to see northwesterly winds return
Tuesday afternoon with VFR conditions.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR ceilings at KMRY, forecast to
return to VFR by around 1930Z and remain VFR throughout the
forecast period. Onshore winds increase by early afternoon before
easing after sunset. Drainage winds are expected in the Salinas
Valley again early Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1014 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas
will prevail through Tuesday morning. Hazardous marine conditions
return Tuesday afternoon as northerly breezes increase to become
fresh to strong and seas become rough to very rough. Conditions
improve Thursday with moderate northerly breezes and moderate
seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1014 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Wednesday evening with
a very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains in
effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Wednesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet,
with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can
be expected. Some of the favored break points may exceed 20 feet at
times. Forerunners will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into
tonight resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This
combined with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will
increase the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks
and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger
in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Sunday for
     CAZ006-506-508-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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