980
FXUS66 KMTR 130539
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
939 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Moderate to heavy rain and a slight chance for thunderstorms
   tonight through Thursday

 - Strong southerly wind gusts up to 50-60 mph may cause property
   damage, downed tree limbs, and difficult travel conditions

 - Cool and unsettled weather Friday and through the weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

The much advertised and talked about storm system is taking shape
currently off the NorCal coast this evening. In fact, latest
satellite imagery and surface analysis puts the surface low due
west of Arcata with a pressure of 995mb. Cyclogenesis isn`t over
yet. As the upper jet becomes even more amplified over the NE
Pacific the surface is projected to bomb out near 980mb. So what
does this mean for the Bay Area and Central Coast? Forecast
still remains on track. The details will be fine tuned with the
overnight update. The Bay Area currently sits in the warm sector
of the system with a cold front slowing approaching from the west.
We`ve had a few showers, but as of this update the radar is
beginning to fill in a little more over the coastal waters and
portions of the Central Coast. The cells are over Monterey Bay
region and off Big Sur where a few thunderstorms have formed.
Even heard thunder at the office. This trend will continue through
the overnight hours, especially as the cold front moves east.

In addition to precip, the deepening low and surface gradient has
really ramped up the winds. Pine Mountain in Marin Co. is already
gusting near 60 mph.

No major updates needed at this time. Will focus on met watch in
the near term as winds increase and thunderstorms form. Still
expecting deteriorating conditions overnight through early
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
(This evening through Thursday)

Light, pre-frontal rain is falling in the higher terrain of the
North Bay and the Santa Cruz Mountains due to orographic lift as
southerly winds increase ahead of the moderate atmospheric river.
This rain will begin to fall over the Santa Lucia Range by this
afternoon as the deeper moisture plume shifts southward. Rain will
persist in these areas through tonight ahead of the main frontal
band forecast to move into the North Bay around 4 AM Thursday
morning. Rain will move through the heart of the Bay Area from 4 AM
through 10 AM Thursday with a slight chance of thunderstorms,
greatly impacting the morning commute. For those commuting in the
morning, be prepared for rain and consider allowing extra time for
your commute. Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms will
continue to progress to the south and inland with precipitation
increasing in the Santa Cruz Mountains and areas of the South Bay by
7 AM through 1 PM Thursday. For the Central Coast, the main rain
band is currently forecast to move through the region during the
early to mid afternoon. Rainfall totals through Thursday afternoon
are as such; 2"-4" with isolated up to 5" in the coastal ranges of
the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast, 1"-2.5" in the North
Bay Valleys, 1"-1.5" around the San Francisco Bay Shoreline
(including the City), and 0.5"-1.25" elsewhere across the region.
There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain
shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall). There also
remains a slight chance for thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday
morning along and in wake of the frontal boundary.

South to southeast winds will begin to increase late this evening
and into early Thursday morning, strongest just ahead of the main
frontal boundary. From the previous forecaster: "The strongest winds
will be along our coastline, especially from the North Bay Coast,
including the Marin Hills, down the San Francisco Peninsula. Here we
can expected to see wind gusts reaching 55 to 60 miles per hour,
with gusts up to 70 mph possible at favored coastal and higher
terrain locations. A High Wind Warning will go into effect from 10
PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday morning. Elsewhere a Wind Advisory
remains in effect from 10 PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday morning
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph." The Wind Advisory/High Wind
Warning very well may need to be extended out in time as we have
seen a later arrival of the boundary in most recent model runs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Post-frontal rain showers will linger through Thursday night and
into Saturday, especially across the Central Coast. This is as a
mid/upper level trough meanders over southern California through
Saturday, and potentially into the rest of the weekend. There after,
the ensemble guidance indicates either weak troughing or zonal flow
which would lead to continued unsettled weather and cooler
temperatures region wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Generally VFR conditions with mid- to high-level clouds and high-end
MVFR continue through the next few hours. Southerly winds are
expected to increase tonight, with their delayed arrival increasing
the uncertainty over the current forecast for the peak wind
intensity. Isolated showers are currently observed with the coverage
increasing throughout the early overnight hours followed by the main
frontal rain band combined with the strongest southerly winds and
generally MVFR-IFR conditions progressing from the North Bay after
midnight through the rest of the region through Thursday morning.
Thunderstorms have already impacted the Monterey Bay terminals
tonight. Further thunderstorms can not be ruled out, but confidence
in timing and location of convection remains low. The likeliest
chances for convection (15-25% probability) are in the coastal
regions and the interior Central Coast. There are some directional
LLWS concerns as the front passes through, and although the
magnitudes remain too low to include in the TAFs, bumpy takeoffs and
landings are still anticipated. After the front passes, southerly
winds relax and lingering showers persist through the tail end of
the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR with mid-level clouds to high-end MVFR and
isolated showers persist through the early overnight hours.
Southeasterly flow will increase through the next few hours, with
gusts of at least 30-35 kt expected overnight through Thursday
morning. The delayed onset of strong winds has decreased confidence
in the wind forecast. The main rain band passes through Thursday
morning and brings generally MVFR conditions. After the front
passes, expect improving conditions, relaxing winds, and lingering
showers through the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions with mid-level clouds
continue through early Thursday morning. Southeast flow will
increase through the overnight hours and peak on Thursday morning
and afternoon, as the main frontal rain band passes through the
region. Generally MVFR conditions are expected as the main front
moves through. The main band should be beginning to exit late
Thursday afternoon, with lingering showers and decreasing winds
through this period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 939 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Widespread hazardous marine conditions continue to deteriorate
across the waters through Thursday morning. Rain showers will
increase in coverage and intensity into Thursday morning with
embedded thunderstorms possible. Widespread gale force gusts are
expected through Thursday morning with storm force gusts expected
for the northern waters. Winds will quickly diminish Thursday
night. Moderate to rough seas tonight will build to become rough
for the inner waters and very rough for the outer waters Thursday
through Friday. Seas abate to become moderate by Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 414 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Wave bulletins recently are showing potential for hazardous surf
conditions developing late to very late Thursday night and Friday.
However, currently it`s a low confidence forecast as to whether
we`ll reach beach hazard criteria or possibly high surf advisory
criteria. Complicating the forecast is in situ rapidly deepening
low pressure development 400 miles northwest of San Francisco that
has itself rapidly evolved just since the weekend, and part of
potentially hazardous surf may be related to the local wind field
in the vicinity of the storm developing in the nearest term. Wave
model forecasts also currently show much of the wave energy over
the offshore waters passing by to our west late this week which
may help mitigate coastal hazards. Please stay tuned to further
updates.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ006-502-505-
     509.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ503-504-506.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ508-510-512>518-
     528>530.

PZ...Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Storm Warning until 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-
     10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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