497
FXUS66 KMTR 172044
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1244 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will
   gradually decrease through Monday night before drier weather
   returns Tuesday.

 - Next system brings more beneficial type rain late Wednesday
   through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)

Isolated to scattered rain showers persist over the region this
afternoon with thunderstorms showing up to our east. A surface low
pressure is currently positioned over the North Bay with a mid/upper
level aloft. This will result in increased instability with surface
based and most unstable CAPE forecast to be up to 500 J/kg through
the afternoon. Any heavier rain showers and/or thunderstorms will be
capable of producing 0.25"-0.50" of rainfall per hour, yet these
rates will be isolated in nature. Conditions begin to dry out by
late tonight and more so into Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will generally be in the low-to-upper 40s across the
coldest spots across the region with upper 40s to lower 50s along
the San Francisco Bay Shoreline and the City of San Francisco.

This drying trend will occur as the aforementioned surface and
mid/upper level lows shift southward through the day on Tuesday. A
short-wave ridge will build across the Bay Area and Central Coast
through Tuesday with temperatures warming to near normal across the
Bay Area and North Bay while up to 10 degrees cooler than normal
across the Central Coast. Mostly sunny sky conditions are expected
beyond the morning hours on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Light to occasionally moderate rain returns late Wednesday night
across the North Bay and then increase in coverage and intensity
through Thursday early afternoon across of the remainder of the Bay
Area and Central Coast. This system is forecast to move through
rather quickly producing 0.50"-1.00" in the coastal ranges and
higher elevations across the region, 0.25"-0.33" in the North Bay
Valleys and around San Francisco, and generally less than 0.25"
elsewhere. However, as things become increasingly saturated, the
risk for shallow land/rock/mud slides will also increase.

Friday through the rest of the upcoming weekend look to be dry with
temperatures rebounding closer to seasonal averages. This is
captured by the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center
showing conditions leaning below normal for precipitation and near
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

Broken Mid-level clouds with spotty MVFR CIGS linger through the day
with scattered light showers and slight chances for storms. Breezy
to gusty shifting winds last through the afternoon as a low pressure
centers over the Bay Area. These winds reduce into the night and
shower become more spotty until rain chances end in the late night.
Skies look to clear into Tuesday morning as the low pressure exits
the region. Winds will stay light into that afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs rise into the afternoon but mid-level
clouds last through the day. Expect mostly breezy to gusty westerly
winds, but a few moments of easterly breezes as the low pressure
center passes through the area. Showers become spottier into the mid
afternoon, but chances for rain still linger into the night. Cloud
cover looks to fall back to MVFR levels as winds weaken after
sunset. CIGs rise again into early Tuesday with building southeast
winds that turn northeasterly in the mid morning. WInds become light
and variable into Tuesday afternoon as skies clear.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered low clouds and broken mid-level
clouds last through the day. Winds stay breezy into the evening as
scattered showers continue to move through the area. Winds and
shower chances reduce into the night, but rain chances last through
much of the morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 912 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

Chances for scattered showers and storms linger into the evening
with shifting winds as a low pressure center moves southward along
the coast. Winds will continue to shift and increase to a strong
NW breeze through the day, building rough seas across the coastal
waters. Strong winds and rough seas will persist through Tuesday
before conditions improve for a short window Wednesday through
Thursday. A high WNW swell will arrive late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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