174
FXUS66 KMTR 291142
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
342 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Mild and quiet, beautiful weather through the weekend.

 - Pattern continues into much of next week. Breezy offshore winds
   in the North Bay interior Wed/Thu. Minimal impact.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through early next, which will include
   sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves 13 to 18 feet.

 - King Tides arrive December 2 - 7 and may lead to coastal
   flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 139 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025
(Today and tonight)

No major changes to the forecast for today outside of high
temperatures in the North and East Bay. The reason being, we`re
expecting stratus and Tule fog to persist across the region,
keeping temperatures regulated. Highs on Friday for these regions
peaked in the upper 40s to low 50s, though if there was clearing,
the mid to upper 50s were observed. Expect that to the be the case
again today for those regions and San Francisco, with warmer
temperatures elsewhere especially the Central Coast, where some
upper 60s to low 70s will be possible.

Stratus and fog should return again tonight, leading to another mild
night with temperatures near or just above normal for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 139 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025
(Sunday through Friday)

More quiet weather is on tap through the extended forecast, with
cluster analysis showing weak ridging to semi-zonal flow through
Tue. Guidance then shows an upper level low, similar to an inside
slider type situation Wed into Thu favoring breezy offshore winds
for interior N Bay counties. Models then struggle for the late
portion of the work week and weekend and where that low goes and if
upper level high pressure can nose into the area. Right now,
guidance continues to keep us dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 342 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas of LIFR-IFR are occurring due to fog and low stratus. The
WMC-SFO and SAC-SFO pressure gradients are 4.3 mb and 1.1 mb
respectively, resulting in light offshore winds which is
transporting fog, low stratus and chilly air from the Central
Valley into the Bay Area. A weaker version of thermal ridging
aloft persists today and tonight nonetheless providing a stable
atmospheric cap on fog and stratus. High clouds are also passing
by this morning. Any cloud breaks are also helping with nocturnal
radiative cooling and fog and low stratus development;
precipitable water in the atmosphere is near the 25th percentile
i.e. below normal, dry for late November. LIFR-IFR in the valleys
will likely be slow to clear again today, given a weaker late
November sun angle. Areas LIFR-IFR redeveloping due to fog and low
stratus tonight and Sunday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR due to stratus prevailing until 17z then
MVFR ceiling 17z-18z, then VFR. Caveat, it may be slow to clear
again today due to the current feedback loop of chilly fog and
stratus in light offshore winds from the Central Valley. IFR
ceiling likely to redevelop by 09z early Sunday. Mainly light
northeast to east wind today becoming northwest 5-10 knots late
today and tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...It`s VFR however there are patches to
areas of LIFR-IFR due to fog and low stratus nearby e.g. Fort Ord
and within the Salinas Valley. Chilly southeasterly drainage
winds will transport fog and low stratus /LIFR-IFR/ in the Salinas
valley at times close to KSNS. Low confidence VFR prevails at
KMRY through morning since there`s a small difference between the
air temp and dewpoint temp, cooling to saturation and dense fog
/VLIFR-LIFR/ did occur last evening. Otherwise VFR is likely to
prevail today with surface winds gradually becoming onshore 5 to
10 knots late this afternoon and early evening. Low confidence VFR
forecast tonight and early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025

Winds will increase mainly across the outer coastal waters late
tonight and Sunday. Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday with
increasing swell heights. Winds increase and wave heights build
due to incoming long period westerly swell in the mid work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 139 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025

Moderate to long period northwesterly swell will result in an
increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves
of 13 to 18 feet are expected. A beach hazards statement is in
effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Sunday evening. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly
run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

Dangerous beach conditions look to continue into early next week,
though there is some uncertainty as breaking wave heights flirt
with High Surf Advisory criteria. Stay tuned, as and remember,
never turn your back to the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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