781
FXUS66 KMTR 082046
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1246 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - Warming and drying trend through this upcoming Monday

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns by the middle of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1244 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025
(This evening through Sunday)

Northeasterly flow persist across the higher elevations this
afternoon, yet has diminished in strength as of the past few hours.
As earlier fog and low clouds have dissipated, mostly sunny skies
prevail across the region allowing for a warm afternoon ahead.
Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the
interior and around the Santa Cruz region, lower 70s near the coast,
and the upper 60s along the immediate coastline. This will also dry
out conditions this afternoon with minimum relative humidity values
dropping to as low as 10% in the regions peaks and between 20%-40%
in the hills/ridgelines.

Less cloud cover is forecast for tonight as offshore flow
strengthens slightly in the higher elevations and the ridge axis
becomes shifts to the east closer to the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Again, these winds are not strong enough to warrant any fire weather
products. Overnight lows will drop into the low-to-mid 50s and into
the lower 60s across the higher terrain.

For Sunday, a warming and drying trend will continue as weak to
moderate offshore flow prevail in the higher elevations. Afternoon
temperatures will reach the low-to-mid 80s across the interior and
around the Santa Cruz region (hottest locations may approach 90
degrees F in places Pinnacles National Park and Bradley). Elsewhere,
temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s away from the
immediate coast where the upper 60s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1244 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Offshore winds will relax on Monday in the higher elevations, just
ever so slightly. However, Monday is forecast to be the warmest day
of the week. Temperatures will warm a few degrees above those on
Sunday as the ridge axis becomes centered over the Bay Area and
Central Coast.

From the previous forecaster: "The focus of the seven day forecast
continues to be the shift towards a more unsettled weather pattern
in the middle of next week. The ridge over the West Coast erodes and
shifts towards the east, allowing an upper level trough to build in
the northeastern Pacific and arrive across the West Coast beginning
on Wednesday. The current model consensus depicts the best chance
for precipitation and the most intense rain coming through the
region late on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a period of lower
chances of less intense rain, potentially showery in nature, Friday
and Saturday. There are still several sources of uncertainty in
regards to the forecast, particularly in the rainfall totals and
resultant downstream impacts to flooding and landslide risk. For the
period from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM on Saturday the 15th, the NBM
gives the following ranges for 25th to 75th percentile rainfall
totals (that is, a 50% probability that the eventual rainfall falls
within this range): 1.2"-2.2" at Sonoma County Airport and San
Francisco International Airport, 0.8"-1.6" at San Jose Airport, and
1"-2" at the Livermore Airport and Monterey Regional Airport. Just
to add that additional bit of spiciness to the forecast, the NBM is
also painting a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms across the Bay Area
and Central Coast on Thursday, with K Index values of 30-35 degrees
Celsius suggesting that scattered thunderstorms are possible. We
will continue to monitor the evolution of the forecast as we head
into the early part of next week, particularly in case the rainfall
totals start leaning towards more impactful scenarios.

Beyond the 7 day outlook, ensemble model means are suggesting
another trough may develop somewhere around the Day 9-10 timeframe,
and the CPC outlook leans towards precipitation totals above
seasonal averages heading into the first week of December."

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

Lingering cloud cover around the SF Bay erodes before noon, leading
to widespread VFR through the remainder of the TAF period Expect
moderate winds for the afternoon that will reduce for most areas
into the evening and into the night. Drainage winds and slight
easterly flow will affect sites such as LVK, HAF, APC, and SNS
overnight, offering moderate winds with some easterly components.
Winds look to stay light to moderate into Sunday afternoon with more
localized affects determining surface wind directions.

Vicinity of SFO...Becoming VFR before noon, then VFR through the
remainder of the TAF period. Winds stay light and variable into the
mid afternoon before becoming moderate and northwesterly. Winds
reduce into the night and become light and variable for Sunday
morning. Moderate northerly winds arrive into Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Easterly winds
linger into the mid afternoon before west to northwest winds return.
These winds become light and variable into the evening. SNS will
experience moderate southeast drainage winds late tonight and through
Sunday morning. MRY keeps light winds, but these winds look to turn
more southerly into early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 837 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

Seas continue to subside through the weekend and stay light
through the mid work week. The next storm will bring a fresh
southerly breeze Wednesday and rough seas to the coastal waters by
Thursday. Winds reduce into the next weekend but seas look to
stay rough into the week after.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006-
     506-508-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass/DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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