


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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440 FXUS66 KMTR 162046 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 146 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Warming and drying trend through Saturday - Offshore winds in the higher elevations tonight and again Friday night into Saturday - Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches Friday night and into Saturday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 (This evening through Friday) Building surface high pressure across the eastern Pacific will result in a warming trend over the next few days as it builds into the Great Basin on Friday. Also, a coastal trough will develop over the California coast. This will result in north-northeasterly winds across the higher terrain, especially across the North Bay overnight tonight and into early Friday morning. Wind gusts will generally remain below 35 mph in the highest peaks of the North Bay. However, fire weather concerns will be limited by the offshore winds not being overly strong and recent rainfall. There is about a 15-30% chance for fog over the Bay Shoreline early Friday morning, yet confidence is not high enough to include in the official forecast. Temperatures Friday morning will bottom out in the 40s across the North Bay and southern interior Central Coast with low 50s elsewhere. Any low clouds or fog that do develop will likely dissipate by around 10 AM Friday. The offshore flow aloft will result in warming temperatures by Friday afternoon when non-coastal areas warm into the 70s with low-to-mid 60s at the coast. These temperatures will be up to 5 degrees F above seasonal averages under mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Friday night and into Saturday morning, offshore winds will persist in higher elevations across the North Bay, weaker elsewhere and weaker than what we are expecting tonight with temperatures mostly in the 50s to upper 40s in the North Bay and southern interior Central Coast. On Sunday, a cut-off mid/upper level low will develop off of southern California and will result in less of a cool down than previously expected. This would act to block the approaching upper level trough from pushing a cold front across the Bay Area and Central Coast. However, temperatures are forecast to cool by a few degrees on Sunday. Still expecting offshore winds to develop in the higher terrain as the trough moves into the Intermountain West Monday and Tuesday. Mostly zonal flow aloft is expected through the remainder of next week across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Thus, temperatures are forecast to be near normal for this time of year. Longer range guidance suggests a wetter pattern developing by next weekend (October 25th and 26th) along with cooler temperatures. This is reflected in both the 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center. Stay tuned... && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Light offshore flow this morning leading to clearing skies and high confidence in VFR. Dry cold frontal passage overnight expected to bring some mix of high clouds to the region, but overall anticipated to remain mostly clear of low-level stratus, with the exception of patchy stratus around the immediate Bay Area. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Patchy stratus overnight around the immediate bay, but should remain SCT. Low confidence in BKN or OVC coverage due to high clouds and light offshore flow. NE winds during the morning hours expected to remain below 4-7 kts. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with a slight chance of localized stratus developing invof KMRY thru midnight. Anticipated to remain mostly clear thereafter thanks to weak offshore flow. VFR thru Friday. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 North to northwest breezes will become moderate to fresh by this afternoon and into the evening and then hold through the end of this week. A few gusts will be strong, favoring the outer waters and south of Pigeon Point for the inner waters. A longer period northwesterly swell arrives this weekend 7 to 10 feet at 15 seconds. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday evening through Saturday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Behringer Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea