890
FXUS66 KMTR 030521
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
921 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Gusty offshore winds still slated for late tonight through
   Wednesday morning. Generally 25-35 mph with isolated gusts to
   45 mph along higher terrain in eastern Napa county.

 - No major fire weather concerns as fuel retain good moisture
   after early November rains.

 - Dry and quiet weather persists through the weekend into early
   next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

A late day maritime push of stratus was running southeastward
along the California coastline. Meanwhile the larger scale offshore
pressure pattern development is currently underway with WMC-SFO 4.2
mb and SAC-SFO 1.7 mb. A dry cool front will produce increasing
northerly winds through the Sacramento Valley with gusty winds
over the North Bay and East Bay hills and mountains later tonight
and Wednesday. Dry weather continues for the week and upcoming
weekend with high pressure over the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
(This evening through Wednesday)

I would like to formally welcome the sun back to Santa Rosa. What
a long, strange Tule it`s been.

Anyways, down to brass tacks. Beautiful weather today thanks to
weak offshore flow and drier air in place compared to the last
several days. This trend continues through midweek, and we`re
still looking at a stronger push of offshore flow overnight
tonight. Timing remains the same with offshore pressure gradient
peaking around mid-morning, so our strongest winds are still
expected before 10 AM, but breezy conditions will likely last into
the afternoon. Only notable change with this forecast update is a
slight decrease in the magnitude of winds. Best forecast
probability now depicts only a 30% chance of winds greater than 45
mph along the Mayacamas. For other lower elevations of Napa county
and the interior East Bay there is a 50-70% chance of winds 30 mph
or greater. Wrapping up probabilities, there is about a 60%
chance of winds greater than 20 mph nearly across the board for
the Bay Area and North Bay. We will see some notable drying with
this event as daytime RH dips into the 30-40% range, but given
non-critical wind/RH and moist fuels from the rain earlier this
month, we do not have any major fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Quiet weather is restored again after the offshore winds on
Wednesday. A boring pattern ensues once again into the weekend as
a very resilient, some say "ridiculously resilient", ridge builds
over the West Coast. There is high confidence in dry weather and
above average temperatures through at least the early half of next
week. Looking at longer term trends, there is a good chance that
the West Coast will enter a more stormy pattern by the middle of
the month, but there is high uncertainty in where exactly those
storms would impact in latitude.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 356 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions continue with currently only STS expected to develop
fog tonight. The wrench in the forecast could be a patch of marine
stratus (currently offshore of the North Bay) that is expanding
southwards along the coastline. Guidance shows some potential for
lowered visibilities and ceilings from 06Z-012Z as marine stratus
pushes in. Guidance remains in good agreement that offshore winds
will strengthen around/after 12Z which will bring in drier air,
improve any reduced visibilities/ceilings across the region, and
suppress fog development overnight.  For LVK- easterly winds
overnight may support tule fog from the Central Valley being
advected into Alameda County and potentially reaching LVK.  Current
models keep LVK clear overnight with current satellite imagery
showing some clearing along the border of San Joaquin County and the
East Bay. If fog is able to redevelop along the San Joaquin
County/East Bay border and extends into Alameda County, then fog is
likely to reach LVK. Winds remain north to northeasterly tomorrow
with occasionally gusty winds expected from late tomorrow morning
into the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. For now kept light to
moderate onshore winds returning this afternoon/evening but
confidence is low to moderate given that winds have not shifted as
of 00Z. Offshore winds return tonight with a weak sea breeze
to return late tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR at SNS, VFR with temporary MVFR
conditions at MRY overnight. A patch of marine stratus is currently
spreading southwards offshore of the North Bay. Moderate confidence
that this stratus will extend far enough south to reach MRY and see
a return of MVFR CIGs. Shortened the duration of MVFR CIGs with CIGs
dissipating by 12Z as winds shift offshore and strengthen. Moderate
offshore north to northeasterly winds are expected at both SNS and
MRY tomorrow.&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

Persistent high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will cause the
moderate to strong northerly breeze to continue through tonight in
the outer coastal zones. Winds will decrease to gentle Wednesday
through Thursday before increasing back to a moderate breeze
Friday. Rough sea heights will subside by Wednesday night as
westerly swell abates.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 840 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

A moderate to strong northerly breeze continues through tonight
over the outer coastal waters. Locally stronger, near gale force
gusts are possible over the far northern outer waters through
early tomorrow morning. Winds decrease to gentle late Wednesday
through Thursday before a moderate to fresh breeze with occasional
strong gusts returns Friday. Rough seas will subside by Wednesday
night as westerly swell abates.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 834 PM PST Tuesday Dec 2 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline
from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday
evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20
minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the
favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners
will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight
resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined
with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase
the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Canepa
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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