553
FXUS66 KMTR 102100
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
200 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The warm up begins today with hot temperatures expected over the
next few days. Starting Thursday, the cool down begins as
troughing resumes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Temperatures are starting to heat up inland with current
observations, as of 1PM, showing temperatures in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. However, we still have a few more hours of heating to go
this afternoon with highs expected to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s
across inland areas. Minor to moderate heat risk continues
throughout most of the Bay Area through the rest of Monday. For
those along the coast, an impressive stratus layer helped to keep
temperatures on the cooler side this morning. High temperatures in
areas close to the shoreline will be in the mid 70s to low 80s while
highs directly along the coast will largely be in the low to mid
60s. Temperatures will cool off fairly quickly this evening as
breezy onshore flow returns with overnight lows in the 50s expected.
Overcast conditions look to return overnight, particularly within
the Monterey Bay region and along the SF peninsula, with patchy fog
possible along the Central Coast and portions of the North Bay.

Looking forward to Tuesday, upper level ridging will continue to
build and tomorrow`s high temperatures will be the peak of the heat
wave. Inland temperatures will range from the mid 80s to upper 90s
with the hottest regions (portions of North Bay, East Bay Hills, and
portions of interior Monterey and San Benito counties) reaching into
the low 100s. Coastal highs will be cooler thanks to continued weak
onshore flow with temperatures peaking in the mid 60s to low 70s.
It will be fairly dry across the interior with daytime RH values
dropping into the low 20s to low 30s. The HeatRisk product shows
moderate impacts over much of the Bay Area and interior Central
Coast. The hottest areas of the North and East Bays are expected to
experience major heat risk which will impact all who are sensitive
to heat (ill, young, elderly, pregnant) and those who are without
adequate cooling and/or hydration. As such, a Heat Advisory has been
issued from 11AM to 8PM on Tuesday across interior portions of the
Bay Area and Central Coast.

For anyone participating in outdoors activities today and tomorrow,
remember to drink plenty of water and to take plenty of breaks in a
cool/shaded area. For anyone planning to visit the coast or a nearby
body of water: remember to weak a life jacket, ideally swim near a
lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday night will range from the mid
50s to low 60s throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast. High
temperatures on Wednesday will still be hot but we will at least be
over the peak of the heat wave. Wednesday`s highs will range from
the mid 80s to mid 90s inland with a few areas potentially reaching
the upper 90s. Wednesday marks the last day with widespread moderate
heat risk as upper level ridging moves out of the area. Thursday
through Sunday, widespread minor heat risk continues and inland
highs will drop back into the 80s to low 90s. For coastal areas,
high temperatures will continue to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s as
onshore flow continues.

Gustier, drier conditions look possible this weekend. Remember to
exercise caution when using a campfire and grills/smokers to prevent
sparks from reaching ignition sources as recent grassfires (Crystal
Fire, Corral Fire) have shown small fuels (such as grasses) are
nearly dry and are becoming more susceptible to burning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions have set in at all terminals except MTR where
lingering low stratus is expected to burn off by late morning. VFR
will prevail through the afternoon and evening hours, when stratus
is expected to develop later tonight dropping ceilings and
visibility to IFR/LIFR overnight into early tomorrow morning.
Gusty onshore winds this afternoon will ease after sunset. Drizzle
is possible along the coast line overnight into early tomorrow
morning as well.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail the remainder of
today and tonight with gusty west winds easing after sunset but
remaining breezy overnight. Low stratus may develop by early
Tuesday morning with the potential of IFR by sunrise, and eroding
by mid to late morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to lift by
early afternoon with breezy onshore winds easing after sunset.
IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to develop later tonight with
mist/drizzle also possible into Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 846 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Breezy and gusty northwesterly winds continue along with rough
seas for the outer waters. Winds increase in through the mid week
with gale-force gusts expected in the northern waters.
Significant wave heights will mostly be dominated by wind driven
waves, though there is a moderate northwesterly swell and a low
southwesterly swell mixed in.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ504-506-510-
     513>515-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Flynn

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