687
FXUS66 KMTR 092035
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1235 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - Warming and drying trend through Monday

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns midweek and potentially lingers
   into the upcoming weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025
(This evening through Monday)

Another warm day is in store for the region as mostly sunny skies
prevail (just a few passing high clouds). As such, temperatures are
forecast to warm into the the low-to-mid 80s across the interior
with the warmest spots across the interior Central Coast approaching
90 degrees F. Near the coast and in the coastal adjacent valleys,
expecting low 70s to low 80s. A southerly surge is moving northward
along the Big Sur coastline, yet should mostly impact locations
along the immediate coast across this region.

Tonight, expecting low clouds and/or fog near the coast as a shallow
marine layer deepens slightly to around 500 feet. However, weak
offshore winds prevail across the higher elevations will keep drier
conditions in those areas.

Monday is forecast to be our warmest day of the week (especially
inland). Any low stratus and/or fog that does develop will quickly
retreat to the coast by late morning or early afternoon. However,
onshore flow is likely to keep coastal temperatures a few degrees
lower and inland temperatures a few degrees warmer than what is
forecast for this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025
(Monday night through next Saturday)

On Tuesday, the ridge begins to shift eastward which will start a
cooling trend as onshore winds become more widespread (even in the
higher elevations). However, afternoon temperatures will remain 5-15
degrees above seasonal averages.

By Wednesday, high level clouds will increase across the region
ahead of an approaching weather system bringing temperatures closer
to seasonal averages. Rain looks to be greatest from Wednesday night
through early Thursday morning as an atmospheric river takes aim on
the Bay Area and Central Coast. The coastal ranges and inland
hills/mountains in the Bay Area and North Bay have the greatest
potential (60%+) of seeing greater than 2.00" from 4 AM Wednesday
through 4 AM Friday. The North Bay Valleys and San Francisco could
see up to 1.50" with generally less than or around 1.00" for the the
remainder of the region. Given this is an atmospheric river, the
rain shadowed valleys may receive much less with respect to
rainfall. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the cold front, but
exact strength of these winds still remain in question. However,
expect the strongest winds to be along the coastline and in the
higher elevations across the region. There is also a less than 15%
probability of thunderstorms Wednesday night and into Thursday as
the main band of convection moves across the region. Once we get in
the range of the higher resolution forecast models, we will be able
to nail down the details (wind, rainfall amounts, thunderstorm
potential, etc).

From the previous forecaster: "After the main rain band moves out
late Thursday, an extended period of lighter rain, possibly showery
in nature, lingers Friday into the upcoming weekend. The axis of the
upper level trough crosses into the state early on Friday, promoting
unstable conditions resulting in the possible development of
convectively driven showers. There is also a chance that a cut-off
low could develop off the coast of southern California, which could
enhance the rain potential across the Central Coast. That said, with
the moisture tap moving to the south and into southern California
and Baja California, there will be less moisture for the showers to
tap into, and the rain totals for this part of the system trend
lower than those on Wednesday and Thursday. The precipitation
chances start out around 40-60% on Friday morning and steadily
decrease into Saturday.

Beyond the 7 day outlook, ensemble model means are suggesting
another trough may develop somewhere around the Day 8-9 (the 16th
and 17th) timeframe, bringing another chance of rain to the region.
This far out, attempting to tease out any further details is a
fool`s errand."

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 944 AM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR through  the TAF period. Expect light to moderate winds for the
afternoon that will reduce for most areas into the evening and into
the night. Drainage winds and slight easterly flow will affect LVK,
APC, and SNS overnight, offering light moderate winds with some
easterly components. Winds become more moderate again into Monday
afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light and
variable into the mid afternoon before becoming moderate and
northerly. Winds reduce into the night and become light and
variable. Moderate northwest winds return Monday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Easterly winds
linger into the mid afternoon before west to northwest winds return.
These winds become light and variable into the evening. SNS will
experience moderate southeast drainage winds late tonight and
through Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 839 AM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

Light winds and moderate NW swell will continue through the mid
week. Winds will flip to southerly and increase to a strong breeze
across the coastal waters by late Wednesday and remain moderate
to strong and gradually veer back to NW through the day Thursday.
These winds, combined with a building NW swell, will generate
rough seas across the waters. Winds are expected to decrease
Friday, but the high swell continues to build with significant
wave heights reaching up to 15 feet before diminishing through the
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass/DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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