505
FXUS66 KMTR 120544
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
944 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 748 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns Wednesday

 - Moderate rain, strong southerly winds, and a slight chance for
   thunderstorms late Wednesday through early Thursday

 - Strong southerly gusts up to 50-60 mph may cause property
   damage, downed tree limbs, and difficult travel conditions

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

After reviewing the latest high resolution model guidance, we
have upgraded the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning for the
coastal North Bay and the Marin Hills, with the valid time
remaining the same (10 PM Wednesday night through 10 AM Thursday
morning). This is where we have the highest confidence for wind
gusts reaching 55 to 60 miles per hour, with gusts up to 70 mph
possible at favored coastal and higher terrain locations. The Wind
Advisory will remain in place for the rest of the Bay Area, but
some of the high resolution models are also showing gusts reaching
55 to 60 mph extending further southward, most notably along the
Pacific coast of San Mateo County. The night shift will re-
evaluate the need for a High Wind Warning for this region during
the overnight forecast update. We have bumped up the wind speeds
for the coastal North Bay and the adjacent waters to better
reflect the incoming guidance, the rest of the forecast remains
unchanged.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 127 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
(This evening through Wednesday)

No major changes to the ongoing forecast, however the widespread
coverage of mid/high level clouds may limit the amount of warming we
see today. However, dry conditions prevail across the region as the
ridge aloft shift southeast and begins to flatten ahead of our next
storm system.

Tonight we are expecting the affects from a weak to moderate
atmospheric river to begin in the coastal ranges of the Bay Area and
then across the Central Coast by early Wednesday morning. This will
be due to orographic lift as southerly winds increase. However,
inland valleys will remain dry Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will be the day we begin to see the full force of impacts
across the entire region as southerly winds will continue to
increase as the atmospheric river approaches with PWAT values up to
1.50". As for winds, we have issued a Wind Advisory from 10 PM
Wednesday through 10 AM Thursday for the interior Bay Area and
Central Coast for southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
45 mph. Wind gusts up to 55 mph are expected along the coast and in
the higher elevations. Gusts have the potential to exceed 60 mph in
the region`s peaks, favored gaps, and passes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 127 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

By Wednesday night, a strong surface low will advance towards the
Pacific Northwest while a trough approaches the West Coast. This
will be the driving force that pushes this system through at a
decent pace without stalling. As such, we are expecting the greatest
rainfall totals from 4 AM Wednesday through 4 AM Friday to be in the
coastal ranges where we expect to see 2-3" of rainfall (as these
areas are expecting to pick up rainfall ahead of the main frontal
system). Rainfall totals during the aforementioned time frame look
to be around 1-2" in the higher terrain elsewhere in the region and
the North Bay, 1-1.25" in the City of San Francisco, and generally
less than 1" in the interior valleys and around the Monterey Bay
region. There is the potential for less rainfall within the
typically rain shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less
rainfall).

There remains less than a 20% chance of thunderstorms mainly early
Thursday morning across the North Bay and Bay Area. These chances
shift southward into the afternoon as the boundary shifts inland and
to the south. The main concerns will be strong gusty winds, heavy
rain, and lightning. In wake of the frontal boundary we are
expecting post-frontal rain showers to continue through the
remainder of Thursday and into Friday. Drier conditions return for
Saturday. Lower confidence now moving toward this upcoming Sunday
with respect to the trough previously forecast to approach the
region. Temperatures look to lean below average and precipitation
above average heading into the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate
Prediction Center.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

A break in the high level clouds is revealing stratus over the
coastal waters moving inland. This is reflected with terminals
showing cigs. The inland march of stratus could have dz or patchy
fog too, esp HAF and STS. Expect this trend to continue overnight
with IFR to MVFR conditions. Conditions improve briefly late
morning into early afternoon before the next storm brings really
gusty winds, lowering cigs, and heavy rain Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR yielding to MVFR cigs by AM rush. Cigs lift
around 18Z as winds increase. Much stronger SE winds arrive for
evening rush with AWW likely for early Thursday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Lower cigs have arrived and will remain
overnight. Some lifting of cigs Wednesday before returning early
Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 939 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

A potent storm system will bring hazardous marine conditions
beginning Wednesday evening. Light to gentle south breezes give
way to Gale Force winds, with locally stronger Storm Force winds
north of Point Reyes by Thursday morning. The strong winds,
coupled with rapidly building Northwest swell, will produce
hazardous seas across all waters. Winds ease Friday, but the
larger swell continues to build with seas up to 15 feet before
diminishing through the weekend. Mariners are urged to use caution
and check current conditions before departing Wednesday evening
and Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ006-503-504-506-508>510-512>518-528>530.

     High Wind Warning from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ502-505.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
     NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for Mry
     Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Storm Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Thursday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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