689
FXUS66 KMTR 102353
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
353 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 223 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions through Tuesday

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns Wednesday

 - Moderate rain, strong southerly winds, and a slight chance for
   thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 223 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)

Another warm and dry day is forecast as afternoon temperatures reach
the low-to-mid 80s across the interior and approach (may exceed) 90
degrees F across typically hotter spots across interior Central
Coast. Elsewhere, expecting upper 70s to low 80s away from the
immediate coast where mid-to-upper 60s are likely. The ridge axis
will shift eastward in the next 24 hours ahead of an approaching
trough.

High cloud cover will become more widespread tonight and is likely
to limit the amount of cooling overnight. Thus, much of the region
tonight into Tuesday morning will cool into the 50s, potentially the
upper 40s in the wind sheltered valleys. There remains weak offshore
flow in the higher elevations where temperatures are forecast to
cool into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Low clouds are also forecast to
return to coastal areas and into the Salinas Valley.

Tuesday will begin the cool down, some 2 to 7 degrees as onshore
flow becomes more widespread. However, these temperatures are still
5 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Again, passing high level
clouds will persist through much of the day along with mid level
clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 223 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is when we are expecting
light to moderate rain to begin in the coastal ranges of the Bay
Area and Central Coast. This will be the result of orographic lift
as the atmospheric river approaches and southerly winds begin to
increase. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity throughout
the day and especially so into Wednesday night. Ahead of the front,
southerly winds will increase with gusts to 35 to 45 mph with
stronger gusts along the coast and at the higher elevations
(potentially in excess of 60 mph), especially through favored gaps
and passes. The stronger gusts will be just ahead of the frontal
passage between 10 PM Wednesday and 10 AM Thursday. There will be
some instability ahead of and in wake of the frontal passage with
surface based CAPE reaching between 100-300 J/kg by Thursday late
morning and into the early afternoon.

Isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible throughout the remainder of the day on Thursday
before tapering off by Friday morning. From 4 AM Wednesday through 4
AM Friday, the regions coastal ranges can expect the see 2-3" of
rainfall, 1-2" in the higher terrain elsewhere in the region and the
North Bay, 1-1.5" in the City of San Francisco, and generally less
than 1" in the interior valleys and around the Monterey Bay region.
There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain
shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall).

Saturday looks to be mostly dry as a weak shortwave ridge builds in
across the region. A troughing pattern returns by Sunday and into
the next week. This is captured by the 6-10 Day Outlooks indicating
precipitation leaning toward above average and temperatures leaning
below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 352 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR with ample high clouds, light to moderate winds, and a bank of
clouds lurking along the Central Coast. 20-30% chc for visby less
than 1 mile for STS late tonight and added a tempo for that. KHAF
will flirt with MVFR to VFR because of haze and mist.

Vicinity of SFO...Light winds with a NW push during the evening
rush. Didn`t happen last evening, but will keep it in for this
evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...VFR.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. 30-40% chc of clouds along the coast
sneaking into SNS overnight. If it does happens, cigs will be low.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

Mostly light to fresh winds continue across the waters with
lingering southerly flow in the southern waters, but winds turn
northerly across all waters early this evening. Unsettled weather
returns midweek with increasing southerly winds returning Tuesday
night and into Wednesday. These winds, combined with a building
NW swell, will generate rough seas across the waters. Winds are
expected to decrease Friday, but the larger swell continues to
build with seas up to 15 feet before diminishing through the
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Murdock

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