450
FXUS66 KMTR 160943
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
143 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Light rain gradually diminishes across the southern Bay Area
   and Central Coast Sunday morning

 - Next system arrives late Sunday with a strong cold front, gusty
   winds, and moderate to heavy rain expected overnight. Slight
   chance of thunderstorms (20-25%) Sunday night into Monday.

 - Drier weather returns Tuesday-Wednesday before a weak,
   beneficial system passes through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 134 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
(Today and tonight)

Widespread light, stratiform rain continues across the southern Bay
Area and Central Coast with around 0.5-1.0" having fallen with this
system so far. Moderate rain will gradually become more scattered
and lighten by mid to late morning as the cut-off low progress
eastward. Showers will become more scattered by the afternoon as
weak, shortwave ridging moves through but this is short lived as
another, deeper, upper level trough moves in the Bay Area. This
system is associated with a strong surface cold front which will
bring moderate to heavy rain, potential for thunderstorms, and
gusty winds ahead of it.

Compared to Saturday, we can expected a more typical north to south
progression of the rain band ahead of this cold front. Moderate to
heavy rain will reach the North Bay Sunday evening before spreading
into the Bay Area and Central Coast Sunday night into early Monday
morning. The North Bay Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains look to
receive an additional 1-2" of rain Sunday night into Monday while
the Santa Lucia Range receives an additional 2-3". For the rest of
the Bay Area and Central Coast, totals will generally range from 0.5-
1.25" Sunday night into Monday. High resolution guidance is
relatively consistent that a period of moderate to heavy rain will
develop ahead of the cold front as it passes through the Bay
Area/Central Coast. Nuisance flooding and rises in small
creeks/streams are likely as this band passes through. Given the
amount of rain the Bay Area and Central Coast has had over the last
week, soils are either saturated or close to saturation which
increases surface runoff and, consequentially, the risk of nuisance
flooding. If you encounter flooding while driving or encounter a
road closure due to flooding, do not attempt to drive through it
instead find a different route.

The other two impacts to consider this evening will be winds and
thunderstorm potential. Winds will strengthen this evening and
remain gusty overnight. Wind gusts will generally peak between 30 to
35 mph with locally stronger gusts across the higher terrain and
mountain gaps/passes (Altamont Pass region). As the main rain band
and cold front pass through, it is possible that temporarily
stronger gusts will develop. Winds will gradually diminish
throughout the day on Monday after peaking overnight Sunday into
Monday. Now for thunderstorm potential, thunderstorm potential
increases late Sunday afternoon into the evening across the marine
environment. The NBM is highlighting a 30-35% chance of
thunderstorms across the northern waters Sunday evening/night with a
20-25% chance of thunderstorms throughout the Bay Area/Central Coast
Sunday night into Monday. The NAM shows a relatively unstable
environment with 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 700-500mb lapse rates
between 7-8C/km. Thunderstorm potential peaks ahead of of cold
frontal passage with chances diminishing to 10-15% by Monday
morning. This is not to knock the chances of thunderstorms in the
post-frontal environment but know chances are highest ahead of/with
cold frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 134 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
(Monday through Saturday)

Periods of moderate rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms
continue through Monday morning as a deep upper level trough pushes
through the West Coast. Rain and thunderstorm chances generally
diminish Monday afternoon into the evening with rain to fully exit
the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Shortwave ridging will
build in Tuesday to Wednesday which will allow us to dry out across
the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will be short lived before
another trough pushes into the West Coast late Wednesday and brings
light rain Thursday and Friday. Precipitation totals for this event
have trended downwards over the last few days with the center of the
upper level trough now positioned further east/inland. This system
is still several days out so continued fluctuations in precipitation
are likely but, for now, this storm looks to produce light, largely
beneficial rain fall across the region. Drier conditions return by
mid to late Friday and continue into the weekend.

In the wake of Sunday-Monday`s system a much cooler airmass will
move into the region. This will keep temperatures in the upper 50s
to low 60s and overnight lows in the low 40s. Tuesday and Wednesday
look to be the coldest morning`s with lows in the 30s across the
interior Central Coast. Pockets of near freezing temperatures are
small so no frost/freeze products are likely next week at this time.
The combination of cooler temperatures and lingering moisture in the
Central Coast may result in some snow flakes across the Santa Lucia
Range Monday but no accumulation or impacts are expected.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 917 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals with rain falling
across the region. Steady rain will continue through mid-to-late
morning before pulling east out of the area. While rain showers
can`t be ruled out from this timeframe to early afternoon, it
looks like there will be at least somewhat of a break and perhaps
even an improvement to VFR. Rain showers return by mid-afternoon
with moderate to heavy rainfall on tap just beyond the 24 hour TAF
period. Winds will generally back through the TAF period. MVFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
conditions expected to deteriorate below MVFR if a moderate to
heavy rain shower develops over a terminal.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow and light
rain. Light rain will continue through mid-morning. Rain showers are
possible in the late morning to early afternoon time frame, but the
best chance will be late afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall
returns late tomorrow night/early Monday morning in the form of a
fast moving cold front. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail
through the TAF period with improvement to VFR possible between rain
showers. Winds will back ahead of the cold front to become southerly
with a quick return to southwesterly after.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow and
light rain at MRY and MVFR with drainage flow at SNS. Steady light
to moderate rainfall is expected through mid-morning with IFR/MVFR
conditions expected to prevail. Conditions will improve by late
morning with intermittent VFR possible, especially if there aren`t
lingering rain showers. Rain showers return tomorrow night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 917 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

Rain will persist through the night and into tomorrow morning with
widespread hazardous marine conditions arriving tomorrow evening.
Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will back to become
southwesterly tomorrow afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall
returns tomorrow night into Monday morning with an accompanying
chance of thunderstorms. Strong to near gale northwesterly
breezes with isolated gale force gusts are expected Monday.
Moderate seas tomorrow will build to become very rough for the
inner waters and outer waters by Monday morning. Seas slowly begin
to abate Wednesday. Rain chances return Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST Monday
     for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Monday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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