331
FXUS66 KMTR 162348
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
348 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - A strong cold front with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain expected
   overnight. Slight chance of thunderstorms (20-30%) tonight
   into Monday.

 - Drier and cooler weather returns Tuesday-Wednesday.

 - Next weather system brings beneficial rain late Wednesday
   through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
(This evening through Monday)

We`re in between weather systems this afternoon as the upper level
low from Saturday pushes east and the next system advances from the
west. A cold front will bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy
rain, spreading from north to south tonight. The heaviest rain
should occur between midnight and 4AM, which will be accompanied
with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms. Any storms that occur may
bring with it heavier pockets of rain, gusty and erratic winds, and
lightning. Rain chances begin to ease towards the morning though
rain will still be occuring during the morning commute before
tapering off later in the day. The North Bay Mountains and Santa
Cruz Mountains look to receive an additional 1-2.5" of rain Sunday
night into Monday while the Santa Lucia Range receives an additional
2-3". For the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast, totals will
generally range from 0.5-1.25" Sunday night into Monday. With the
thunderstorm chances and the potential NCFR tonight, combined with
already saturated soils, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 1 of 4) has been issued for nearly all portions of the
service area. The exception will be for the Santa Lucia where a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2 of 4) is forecast. The
most likely type of flooding we`ll see is nuisance flooding,
especially in poor drainage, low laying, or urban areas. If you
encounter flooding while driving or encounter a road closure due to
flooding, do not attempt to drive through it instead find a
different route.

The last impact not covered yet is wind. Winds will slowly ramp up
this evening, with a quick burst of stronger winds overnight. Peak
wind gusts will generally be around 30-35 mph, with locally higher
gusts possible along the immediate coast, the higher elevations, and
mountain gaps/passes (Altamont Pass region).

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
(Monday night through next Saturday)

Brief upper level ridging builds into the region late Monday/early
Tuesday and holds through most of Wednesday. This will bring a brief
period of cooler and drier weather with high temperatures maxing out
in the upper 50s to low 60s in the valleys and the mid 40s to upper
50s for the higher elevations. Overnight lows will be chilly as
well, with interior Central Coast temperatures dipping into the 30s,
while the rest of the area flirts in the 40s.

Another upper level trough is set to arrive to the west coast,
which will bring renewed chances of beneficial rain to the region.
Amounts generally look to be about 0.25-0.75" for the North Bay
counties, Santa Lucia, and and Santa Cruz mountains. Elsewhere,
amounts range from 0.10-0.40".

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals with rain showers
across the region. Rain showers will increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon and into the evening ahead of the
cold front. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected as the cold front
quickly moves through. Southerly winds will strengthen and become
gusty ahead of and during the cold frontal passage. Behind the cold
front, rain showers will remain possible and winds will slowly veer
to become onshore. MVFR conditions will generally prevail through
the TAF period with further reductions possible in the heaviest
rain. There`s also a chance for thunderstorms with this system, but
confidence is not high enough in timing and/or location to include
in the TAFs at this time.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. Light rain
showers will continue through the afternoon and into the early
evening. Rain showers will increase in coverage and intensity this
evening ahead of the cold front. Moderate to heavy rainfall is
expected with the cold frontal passage with post-frontal showers
possible after. Southerly winds will continue to increase up to and
through the cold frontal passage, slowly veering to become westerly
behind it. There`s a general chance for thunderstorms in the area,
but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY
and VFR and calm at SNS. Rain showers will trek towards the terminal
over the next few hours with light rain showers this evening
increasing in coverage and intensity tonight ahead of the cold
front. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected through the cold
frontal passage. Southerly winds will increase ahead of and through
the cold frontal passage, slowly veering to become westerly behind
it. There`s a general chance for thunderstorms in the area, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 347 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

Light showers continue into the evening, with rain chances
increasing into the night. Expect building southerly winds that
become breezy to gusty into the night. Winds will shift to a
strong NW breeze as a new cold front arrives. This front will
cause occasional gale force gusts, very rough seas, and poor
visibility in heavy rain. There is also chances for thunderstorms
as the front moves through. Conditions will improve Wednesday
before very high WNW swell rolls in Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Murdock

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