860
FXUS66 KMTR 102108
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
108 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 106 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Friday

 - Tule fog and stratus continue for the North and East Bay

 - Light rain remains possible next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 106 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
(This evening through Thursday)

San Francisco and the immediate bay shoreline stayed mostly cloud
free this morning while the North Bay, South Bay, and East Bay
valley locations remain socked in with low clouds. This is as
offshore flow just above the surface pushed tule fog and/or
stratus into these areas. We have seen these clouds erode in the
South Bay while they remain over the far interior East Bay and
North Bay. We are expecting these clouds to mix out and give way
to a few hours of sun, except across the far interior East Bay and
bay side parts of Marin County. This has made for a challenging
forecast over the past week or so, especially with respect to
afternoon maximum temperatures.

Look for more of the same overnight and into early Thursday
morning with tule stratus and/or fog to return to much of the
aforementioned areas. Elsewhere, we are expecting mostly clear
skies overnight with temperatures dropping into the 40s across
much of the lower elevations and mid-to-upper 30s in the interior
Central Coast.

For Thursday, expecting temperatures to warm a degree or two in
the non-cloud covered areas as a ridge of high pressure continues
to build over the region. Again, places which happen to see full
sunshine are likely to be warmer than currently forecast. But on
the other hand, cooler than currently forecast if cloud cover
holds on throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 106 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Temperatures will warm by a few degrees each day through Saturday
as the mid-to-upper level ridge axis shifts inland. This will be
the beginning of the ridge breaking down over our region. Thus, we
are likely to return closer to normal temperatures (still likely
up to 10 degrees above seasonal averages) and potentially
unsettled weather conditions as zonal flow returns to the region,
especially across the North Bay. This would bring the potential
for light rain to the North Bay and Bay Area by Monday or Tuesday
with chances lingering through the middle of next week. However,
the clusters do not point to a significant trough developing until
around December 20th.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 919 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

Slightly different set up this morning with SF Bay showing more
VFR, but N, E, and S Bay still remains locked in just like the
last few days. N and E Bay terminals will hold onto the IFR
conditions through this afternoon with some clearing late this
afternoon. For tonight, highest conf for CIGS and FG will continue
to be N and E Bay terminals. SF Bay looks to be VFR or MVFR with
some br/hz. One hi-res models shows some CIGS over OAK tomorrow
morning, but conf is too low to include them at this time.
Monterey Bay remains VFR.

Vicinity of SFO...A brief build up of CIGS has already begun to
fade. Expect VFR there afternoon. Winds will be NE then onshore
push late and NE again tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...VFR. Low chance for slantwise vis issues due
to haze.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 919 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

High pressure off the coast and low pressure inland will maintain
northerly fresh breezes across the outer waters with light to
gentle breezes near shore. Light offshore flow through the San
Francisco Bay and Delta result in light easterly flow through the
Golden Gate. A new, long period northwesterly swell anticipated to
arrive today, lasting into this weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1224 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

Long period swell will reach the coast Wednesday - Friday. This
energy brings strong rip currents, an increased risk for sneaker
waves, and large breaking waves. The Bodega Bay Buoy is reporting
a WNW swell of 9 feet with a 13 second period. That translates to
breaking waves of 12-16 feet along west facing beaches. This
coincides with nice warm weather, which will likely lure more
people to the beach under a false sense of security. A Beach
Hazard Statement is in effect through Friday evening. Respect the
power of the ocean and never turn your back on it.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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