


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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071 FXUS66 KMTR 170301 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 801 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Warming and drying trend through Saturday - Offshore winds in the higher elevations tonight and again Friday night into Saturday - Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches Friday night and into Saturday && .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Warmer across the region thanks to abundant sunshine and a warming airmass today. Highs rose 5 to 10 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday with max temps reaching the 60s and 70s. Despite the overall warm up the hills/mts across the Central Coast were still chilly and stayed in the 50s. Normally mentioning offshore flow in October would be a fire weather concern, but recent rains have helped those concerns. Synoptically speaking, offshore flow began to develop earlier today with SFO-WMC now approaching -4.5mb. Obs over the higher terrain are already showing NE flow with occasional gusts over 20 mph. The offshore gradient is only expected to peak in the -5 to -6mb range tonight or weak/moderate category. While breezy in the hills and lowering RH not expecting any major impacts. If anything, it will help to disrupt the marine layer. Most notable offshore flow will be over the N Bay Mts and E Bay Hills. No update needed. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 (This evening through Friday) Building surface high pressure across the eastern Pacific will result in a warming trend over the next few days as it builds into the Great Basin on Friday. Also, a coastal trough will develop over the California coast. This will result in north-northeasterly winds across the higher terrain, especially across the North Bay overnight tonight and into early Friday morning. Wind gusts will generally remain below 35 mph in the highest peaks of the North Bay. However, fire weather concerns will be limited by the offshore winds not being overly strong and recent rainfall. There is about a 15-30% chance for fog over the Bay Shoreline early Friday morning, yet confidence is not high enough to include in the official forecast. Temperatures Friday morning will bottom out in the 40s across the North Bay and southern interior Central Coast with low 50s elsewhere. Any low clouds or fog that do develop will likely dissipate by around 10 AM Friday. The offshore flow aloft will result in warming temperatures by Friday afternoon when non-coastal areas warm into the 70s with low-to-mid 60s at the coast. These temperatures will be up to 5 degrees F above seasonal averages under mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Friday night and into Saturday morning, offshore winds will persist in higher elevations across the North Bay, weaker elsewhere and weaker than what we are expecting tonight with temperatures mostly in the 50s to upper 40s in the North Bay and southern interior Central Coast. On Sunday, a cut-off mid/upper level low will develop off of southern California and will result in less of a cool down than previously expected. This would act to block the approaching upper level trough from pushing a cold front across the Bay Area and Central Coast. However, temperatures are forecast to cool by a few degrees on Sunday. Still expecting offshore winds to develop in the higher terrain as the trough moves into the Intermountain West Monday and Tuesday. Mostly zonal flow aloft is expected through the remainder of next week across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Thus, temperatures are forecast to be near normal for this time of year. Longer range guidance suggests a wetter pattern developing by next weekend (October 25th and 26th) along with cooler temperatures. This is reflected in both the 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center. Stay tuned... && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 It`s a near high confidence VFR forecast through the evening except for patchy low clouds /IFR/ developing along the immediate coastline. The evening 00z Oakland upper air sounding shows a precipitable water of 0.54" (25th percentile for the time of year) with a good radiative cooling window open i.e. drier layer above the boundary layer for nocturnal longwave radiative cooling to space. A loss of heat to space will cool temperatures near surface dewpoint temps (measure of water vapor) tonight and Friday morning with a few areas of fog including dense fog probable (20-50%, greater than 50% over the SF Bay early Friday morning). ECMWF and GFS show cirrus clouds arriving from the north tonight and Friday, which may slow radiative cooling a little overnight. Diurnal surface heating and mixing results in VFR redeveloping Friday. Vicinity of SFO...Near high confidence VFR continues through the evening. Radiative cooling will result in low clouds and mist/fog /IFR/ 11z-15z Friday with IFR prevailing until 18z Friday. VFR thereafter for Friday. West-northwest wind 10 to 15 knots, decreasing and becoming light and variable to light easterly Friday morning to mid afternoon. West wind near 10 knots redevelops by late Friday afternoon or early evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR however SCT-BKN low clouds /IFR/ will likely form nearby the terminals during the evening, with increasing probability of LIFR-IFR in fog and low clouds late tonight and early Friday morning. Light east to southeasterly winds tonight increasing to 5 to 10 knots perhaps up to 15 knots in the Salinas Valley late tonight and Friday morning; cool air drainage winds will help to mix out the fog /LIFR-IFR/ earlier than usual Friday morning. By late afternoon winds shift to onshore 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025 North to northwest breezes will become moderate to fresh by this afternoon and into the evening and then hold through the end of this week. A few gusts will be strong, favoring the outer waters and south of Pigeon Point for the inner waters. A longer period northwesterly swell arrives this weekend 7 to 10 feet at 15 seconds. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday evening through Saturday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Behringer Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea