206
FXUS63 KOAX 040940
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
340 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs warm to the mid 60s to low 70s with little to no cloud
  cover for today.

- Breezy winds anticipated early Wednesday morning, subsiding in
  the afternoon with quiet conditions thereafter. Highs cool to
  the low to mid 50s.

- Breezy winds return for Thursday into the weekend. Cooling
  trend begins Friday into the weekend, while next best chance
  for precip returns Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

GOES-19 nighttime microphysics shows a narrow band of cloud cover
over portions of central into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
early this morning. 08z H5 RAP objective analysis reveals a
shortwave trof with vort max now entering central Nebraska. Although
weak, lift from the vort max and a belt of warm air advection
entering the forecast area between H7 to H5 has also led to a few
scattered showers just north of the Omaha metro area. A good portion
of this activity is struggling to reach the ground as a deep dry
layer from below H5 to the sfc remains in place. Temperatures are in
the upper 30s to low 40s where little to no cloud cover is seen,
while a few sites like Fremont and Blair are reporting around mid to
upper 40s where thicker clouds are.

CAM guidance in the immediate near-term shows the showery activity
continuing through at least 14z, but the dry air will stick around
so largely expecting dry conditions with little to no cloud cover.
The H8 baroclinic zone will race northeast today resulting in strong
warm air advection. While forecast soundings suggest we won`t quite
mix up to H8, still expecting warm conditions with many in eastern
Nebraska seeing highs in the low 70s while western Iowa sees mid
60s. Have continued trend of bumping up high temperatures a degree
or two from NBM guidance for today.

By this afternoon and evening, a shortwave from the
Alberta/Saskatchewan area will eject southeast. Sfc cyclogenesis
ensues with the low tracking along the Nebraska/South Dakota border.
The cold front will be at our doorstep too, and while low level
convergence and lift is noted along the boundary, limited moisture
transport will hamper any shower chances, and CAM guidance remains
dry. Lows tonight will be a function of frontal placement, with
upper 30s anticipated in northeast Nebraska and mid 40s along and
south of Interstate 80.

The front will keep pushing east into Wednesday morning. Just after
frontal passage, winds will become gusty at 25 to 30 mph aided by
the strong H8 cold air advection within a belt of 30 to 40 kt LLJ
winds, a tightening sfc pressure gradient from the approaching sfc
high, and the large scale subsidence. Have collaborated with
neighboring WFOs to increase wind gusts from 06z to 17z
Wednesday. Winds will subside in the afternoon as the sfc high
settles across much of the Dakotas and eastern Nebraska. Similar
to today, expect a mix of clouds and sun while highs reach the
mid to upper 50s for most. Lows cool to the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

An H5 shortwave is progged to enter the Northern Plains by Thursday.
Another sfc low will develop over the Dakotas, trekking east
throughout the day. A warm front will lift over the forecast area
during the day, helping raise highs to the low to mid 60s. Winds
will be breezy too, with gusts up to 30 mph primarily over northeast
Nebraska where a tighter pressure gradient is forecast. The cold
front moves through by the evening hours. While some forcing from
the frontal feature and mid level Q-vector convergence is seen
clipping eastern fringes of our service area, better low level
moisture transport will be over central Iowa. Deterministic suite
shows precipitation clipping our far eastern fringes late Thursday
night into early Friday morning for this forecast package, while NBM
guidance shows 15% PoPs barely clipping far southwest Iowa during
the same period.

A cooling trend will take shape starting Friday into the weekend as
a closed low at H5 over eastern Canada ejects southward and fuses
with several shortwaves to its southwest, deepening the longwave
trof. Saturday will see the first shortwave and resultant sfc low
arrive at our doorstep. Most guidance remains in agreement that
precip will develop although uncertainty still exists with the
placement and timing of mid and low level features. H8 temperatures
will hover near the 0C mark, and depending on how far south the cold
air can push, some snow is certainly not out of the question
particularly over far northern portions of the forecast area. For
now, NBM has temps warm enough to suggest rain in our forecast area,
and even then only has PoPs at low end 15 to 20% along our far
northern fringes.

A few Euro and GEFS members suggest gusty winds during this period,
particularly Saturday into Sunday resulting in at least some risk
for fire danger. Temperatures cool to the low to mid 40s by Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Confidence
in some early morning development of some low clouds around
FL025 has slipped. Have opted to leave in SCT025 at LNK and OMA,
but that is probably too conservative. Otherwise, expect light
and variable winds to become south-southwesterly after sunrise
at about 5-10 knots and a bit stronger at KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Nicolaisen