349
FXUS63 KOAX 121042
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
442 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warm into Saturday. Friday will be the warmest day
  of the week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- High to potentially very high fire danger Friday afternoon.

- 40-50% chance of precipitation Monday. This will most likely
  be rain, but there is about a 10% chance we see some
  accumulating snow in some locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Today and Thursday:

A mid-level ridge located over the Interior West will slowly
build east, reaching the central U.S. Thursday into Thursday
night. In the low levels, a ridge of high pressure will build
through the mid-MO Valley today ahead of a lee trough that will
deepen over the northern and central High Plains Thursday. The
high pressure represents a slightly cooler air mass that is
filtering into the area this morning with today`s highs (upper
50s to mid 60s) a bit cooler than those yesterday.

Winds will switch to south tonight into Thursday, which will
contribute to warmer temperatures with highs in the 60s.


Friday through Sunday:

A mid/upper-level low and associated troughing will progress
through central Canada and the north-central U.S. Friday and
Saturday with an attending surface front pushing through our
area Saturday morning. Persistent south winds ahead of the front
will will maintain an unseasonably warm air mass across the
region with Friday likely being the warmest day of the week.
High temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 60s to mid
70s, which will be in the neighborhood of the record highs for
the day (76/Omaha, 75/Lincoln, 72/Norfolk). The warm temperatures
and relatively dry air mass (minimum RH of 25-30%) will result
in high to potentially very high fire danger in northeast NE
Friday afternoon.

The models continue to indicate a dry frontal passage Saturday
morning, which is reflected in this forecast update with less
than 5% PoPs.

Temperatures are expected to cool slightly Saturday with the
early-day frontal passage with highs in the 60s to around 70.
Further cooling is anticipated Sunday with highs in the 50s to
around 60.


Early next week:

Latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in a bit
better agreement in the timing of a short-wave trough and
associated surface low into the central Plains Monday, though
latitudinal (north-south) track differences do exist. Those
track variations could have implications on precipitation type
with a more northern track supporting mainly rain. In contrast,
a more southern track would increase the chance of a rain-snow
mix in parts of our area. This forecast update will indicate
40-50% PoPs Monday with a rain-snow mix developing in northeast
NE Monday evening.

We`ll see cooler temperatures with the movement of the weather
system into the area with highs in 40s and 50s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 442 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
increasing high-level cloudiness (FL200-250) late this afternoon
into tonight. Light northwest to north winds this morning will
become light southeast by this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead