794
FXUS63 KOAX 040420
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1120 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy and dry conditions will lead to very high fire danger
  near the South Dakota border on Saturday afternoon. Elsewhere,
  wildfire potential will remain confined to agricultural fields
  where harvesting is ongoing.

- Chances for showers and storms return to the area Sunday
  afternoon and continue into Tuesday morning. Additional
  chances exist Wednesday night into Thursday.


- Temperatures trend cooler early next week, with highs in the
  60s on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Remainder of this afternoon through Saturday:

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows an intense mid/upper-
level low centered over the Sierra Nevada, with prominent
downstream ridging across the central CONUS. The mid-level
trough and associated low will shift east into the Great Basin
tonight, before deamplifying as an open wave over the High
Plains on Saturday. That upper-air pattern evolution will lead
to the development of a 40-45 kt low-level jet (LLJ) over the
central Plains tonight into Saturday, ahead of a surface cold
front settling south through the Dakotas and far western NE.

The ridging aloft coupled with gusty, south winds have yielded
another unseasonably warm day, with 2 PM temperatures in the mid
80s to around 90; some 15-20 degrees above normal. Partial
downward mixing of the nocturnal LLJ will keep winds and
temperatures up overnight, with lows only falling into the
low/mid 60s. The warm start will lead to similar highs (to
today) on Saturday, with the warmest temperatures (low 90s)
expected near the SD border. Winds will be stronger on Saturday,
with sustained speeds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-45 mph;
the strongest of which are expected near the SD border.

In addition to enhancing wind speeds, the deep, boundary-layer
mixing will transport drier air to the surface --especially in
northeast NE-- where relative humidity could fall to 25-30%
during the mid/late afternoon. The overlap of strong winds and
low relative humidity will lead to very high fire danger in Knox
and Cedar Counties, where some curing of fuels (outside of
agricultural fields) is being observed. Elsewhere across our
area, native grasses and trees remain relatively green, limiting
any wildfire threat to agricultural fields where harvesting is
in full swing.


Saturday night into the middle of next week:

The above-mentioned, mid-level trough will continue northeast
through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with the
strongest forcing for ascent remaining to the north of our
area. Meanwhile, the cold front --initially to our north-- will
move into our area on Sunday, with the boundary potentially
lingering across far southeast NE and southwest IA into Monday.
Outside of small (15-20% PoPs) precipitation chances Saturday
night into Sunday morning, it appears that the better
measurable precipitation potential will hold off until Sunday
afternoon, and moreso, Sunday night into Monday when PoPs
increase to 40-70%.

The arrival of the front will coincide with gradually
strengthening vertical wind shear, which may support a strong
storm or two on Sunday afternoon into evening. However, the
pre-frontal warm sector is expected to become only marginal
unstable, which will limit a more robust severe-weather threat.
Some strong-storm potential could linger into Monday afternoon
near the KS and MO borders if the front stalls in those areas.
Locally heavy rainfall would also be a concern.

Another mid-level disturbance is forecast to move through the
area on Wednesday night into Thursday, with the forecast
indicating 15-25% PoPs during that timeframe.

Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front early next week,
with highs in the 70s and 80s on Sunday cooling into the 60s on
Monday. Readings in the 60s and 70s are forecast on Tuesday and
Wednesday, with mainly 70s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. A strengthening low-level jet has brought 45-55 kt LLWS
at 2000 feet that will diminish after 13-15Z. Winds will remain
above 12 kts through the period, with gusts gradually increasing
through the morning and early afternoon. Gusts of 30-35 kts
will be possible through the afternoon before gradually
dampening through the evening. Skies will remain mostly clear,
with a few clouds at FL250 during the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Wood