145
FXUS63 KOAX 231127
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may develop this morning, mainly in river valleys
  and low-lying areas of southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.

- Rain returns late tonight into Monday (60-80% chance).

- Windy Tuesday with gusts of 30-40+ mph. Some fire weather
  concerns may develop, depending on how much rain falls Monday.

- Continue to monitor the forecast from Thanksgiving into the
  weekend as potential exists for snowfall, although confidence
  in specific details remains low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Pretty quiet across the area early this morning with surface
high pressure in control. Clear skies and light winds were
allowing temperatures to fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s as of
3 AM. Satellite imagery did show some fog starting to develop
in some of the river valleys in southeast NE into northeast KS
with occasional obs elsewhere showing reduced visibility. Some
guidance is still persistent that patchy fog continues to
develop near and east of the Missouri River over the next few
hours. However, still plenty of guidance still keeps those
areas largely clear with model soundings showing just enough
drying in the low levels to prevent saturation. Whatever does
develop should start to dissipate by around 10 AM giving way to
a quiet, mild day with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

By this evening, a cutoff low currently over the Desert
Southwest will push into eastern CO with associated rain edging
into the forecast area after midnight. Through 6 AM Monday,
chances look to be in the 20-40% range, mainly in NE, but will
steadily increase and overspread the area through the remainder
of the morning, topping out in the 40-70% range, highest across
far southeast NE into southwest IA. Precip looks like it`ll
linger in at least part of the area into the evening, but should
exit by midnight. Overall, the rain looks pretty light with
CAMs depicting more of a spotty, off- and-on showery look
through the day with chances for 0.25" only in the 10-20% range
for most. Otherwise, temperatures will generally top out in the
mid 50s.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will be pushing through MT and
into the Dakotas by early Tuesday, with a surface cold front
working its way through the forecast area during the day.
Guidance has trended toward keeping a vast majority of
associated precipitation to our north, though still maybe a
10-15% chance that far northeast NE gets clipped by some of this
moisture. It does look it would likely be during the day if it
does happen, which would mean rain, but if the system slows or
anything lingers into the evening, some very light snow could
move through, but little to no accumulation would be expected.
Otherwise, the main story of Tuesday will be strong northwest
winds behind the front, with model soundings showing 40- 50+ mph
at the top of the mixed layer and EPS mean wind gusts in a
similar range. Should these pan out, we`ll eventually need a
Wind Advisory, and we may see some fire weather concerns,
depending on how much rain falls the day before. Finally,
temperatures will be greatly impacted by the speed of the cold
front, with northeast NE topping out in the mid 40s and
southeast NE/southwest IA getting into the lower to mid 50s.

Guidance then suggests surface high pressure should dominate at
least Wednesday and Thursday with fairly quiet, but cool
weather. Expect highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s both days.

For Friday into the weekend, quite frankly, the forecast
remains a bit of a mess with very low predictability. Will there
be precipitation that impacts travel? Probably, but when,
where, and what kind all remain major questions. First, there
are still signs we could see a band of light snow slide through
at least part of the area sometime Friday, as some low to mid
level frontogenesis develops ahead of an incoming shortwave
trough. Ensemble members still show quite a bit of spread in how
far north or south this potential band would be, ranging from
across the middle of the forecast area, to remaining entirely
north and impacting only the Dakotas into MN, though the highest
potential for us would be near the NE/SD border. Precipitation
looks to become a little bit more widespread as we head into
Friday night/Saturday, as the aforementioned trough axis moves
into the area. However, guidance is all over the place on how
far west/east this precip develops and where any rain/snow
transition line is. As we head into Saturday night/Sunday, a
long wave trough will start to amplify over the western CONUS,
but there remains lots of spread in timing, type, location, and
amounts of associated precipitation. Current consensus gives us
40-60% chances of precip Sunday into Monday, but confidence in
any details is very low. So bottom line, if you have travel
plans following Thanksgiving, continue to closely monitor the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions generally favored through the day, though there
is some patchy fog in river valleys and low lying areas this
morning, including near OMA. As a result, could see brief
periods of IFR visibility through 14-15Z. Otherwise expect
southerly winds at 7-10 kts, with a few gusts near 18 kts at OFK
this afternoon. Some mid to high clouds will push in through
the day, followed by some MVFR ceilings and spotty showers late
in the period. A few pieces of guidance hint at some fog
development shortly after 00Z, but winds just above the surface
look like they should be strong enough to preclude that (10%
chance of development).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA