987
FXUS63 KOAX 070549
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1149 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow in northeast Nebraska and a light rain/snow max along the
  I-80 corridor will taper off from west to east this afternoon.
  Expect a few slick spots, especially on untreated roads and
  surfaces.

- Temperatures will fall sharply tonight, with Sunday morning
  wind chills in the single digits above and below zero.

- A brief warmup arrives early next week: highs climb into the
  30s on Monday, then into the 40s and even low 50s on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow...

An upper-level shortwave trough diving south across the High Plains
has spun up a surface low now tracking across north-central Nebraska
as of early afternoon. Ahead of this system, warm air advection and
frontogenesis have produced a north-south oriented shield of
precipitation extending from southeast SD/northwest IA southward,
gradually decaying as it approaches southeast NE. Precipitation type
has been variable, with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in
the far northern CWA to the upper 30s across southeast NE/southwest
IA. Southwesterly winds gusts of 20-25 mph has also kept wind chills
in the 20s to low 30s. Snow has been the predominant precipitation
type across northeast NE, where 1 to 3 inches of accumulation is
expected, though most of this has already fallen. This area has seen
the most efficient snowfall rates, approaching 1 inch per hour,
thanks to strong isentropic lift along the eastern NE/SD border.

Farther south, a transition zone has set up roughly along a Columbus-
Wahoo-Omaha line, where a light rain/snow mix has been observed.
South of this corridor, precipitation has fallen primarily as
spotty, light rain. Any accumulating snow in this transition zone
will likely peak at a dusting. Precipitation will exit from west to
east through the rest of the afternoon and early evening as the
surface low tracks southeast into northwest Missouri. A Winter
Weather Advisory continue for portions of northeast NE and western
IA through the afternoon. As temperatures fall this evening,
refreezing of residual moisture may create slick spots, so use
caution if traveling or walking on untreated surfaces.

Behind the departing low, cooler air will settle in, dropping
overnight lows into the teens, with single digits likely across
northeast NE and northwest IA. Wind chills will fall into the single
digits above and below zero, with values as low as five below across
the far northern CWA. Persistent CAA and lingering cloud cover will
hold Sunday`s highs to the teens and mid-20s. A brief ridge of
surface high pressure will move in early Sunday before a mid-level
shortwave crossing the northern High Plains pushes a warm front into
the region during the mid-day. This may bring a brief round of
flurries across northeast Nebraska Sunday afternoon (15-30% PoPs).
QPF remains minimal, generally under 0.05", so accumulation and impacts
are not expected.

Monday and Beyond...

An active upper-level pattern will persist through the work week,
bringing fluctuating temperatures and a chance for late-week
precipitation. The work week will kick off with a chilly Monday
morning, as lows dip into the teens and wind chills drop to the
single digits. Southerly low- level flow will help Monday`s
highs rebound into the 30s and low 40s, with a more pronounced
warmup Tuesday as temperatures climb into the 40s and even low
50s across east- central NE. This warmer day will also feature
breezy northwesterly winds, with gusts of 25-35 mph.

A shortwave passing to our northeast will sweep a cold front through
the region late Tuesday, knocking highs back into the 30s for both
Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation chances return late Wednesday
into Thursday as a mid-level trough advances into the northern
Plains and and sends a ribbon of vorticity across the area. Current
PoPs peak near 30%, though GEFS and EPS/EPF-AIFS ensemble guidance
continues to show a wide spread in placement and intensity of any
associated snowfall at this range. One aspect with higher confidence
is the cold air that follows. Temperatures will tumble behind the
system, with Friday`s highs only reaching the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

IFR conditions have expanded south to KOMA and KLNK, and cigs
have lowered to LIFR at KOFK. Expect reduced conditions to hold
overnight with winds out of the north. We`ll see cigs start to
lift between 13-15Z on Sunday, with winds starting to relax a
bit to around 08-10kt. We`ll see clouds gradually breaking up
through the morning from northeast to southwest, with MVFR cigs
more likely holding through the day at KOFK. This will bring
VFR conditions to KOMA and KLNK by 16-17Z. Clouds from the west
will spread back eastward toward the evening, with some
uncertainty in how low they will be when they arrive at KLNK and
KOMA around 00Z. Model spread has cigs anywhere from FL050 to
FL015, but greater confidence (60%) is in VFR cigs probably
around 3500-5000 ft. At the same time, winds will be shifting to
southeasterly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...McCoy