164
FXUS63 KOAX 272250
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
450 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of snow is expected to bring at least minor travel
  impacts to parts of the area Friday into Friday night. The
  highest chances will be in far northeast Nebraska into west-
  central Iowa where there is a 50-60% chance of at least an
  inch of snow.

- Travel impacts will become more widespread Saturday as snow
  overspreads the area and a few places see some light icing. In
  addition, gusty northwest winds will lead to some blowing and
  drifting snow, including into Saturday evening after snow
  ends. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for much of the
  area.

- Bitter cold is set after Saturday`s system, with highs mostly
  in the 20s and lows falling into the single digits and teens
  through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Pretty quiet and seasonably cool across the region early this
morning as we were under northwest flow aloft with surface high
pressure building in. Temperatures as of 4 AM were in the teens
to lower 20s. The quiet weather will stick around during the
day with temperatures topping out in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Attention then turns to our much-talked-about snow chances
Friday and into the weekend. The system that will be responsible
is currently sitting off the Pacific Northwest coast and should
start to move onshore this evening. As the shortwave trough
starts to approach the Rockies Friday, a surface low is progged
to spin up over WY and sink southward into CO by Friday
afternoon. Southeasterly flow and warm air/moisture advection
will ramp up ahead of the surface low with a band of low to mid
level frontogenesis developing across SD into northeast NE and
western IA by late morning/early afternoon. There will be some
dry air to overcome, so it might take a bit for precipitation to
reach the ground, but eventually expect a band of snow to set
up in this area in the afternoon, with accumulations largely
confined to areas northeast of Norfolk to Omaha line through 6
PM. Most impacts from this band will likely be outside of our
area, but places in Knox, Wayne, Thurston, and Monona counties
could see around 1".

As the southeasterly flow continues and the actual shortwave
starts to push in Friday night, precipitation will become more
widespread with rain in the south, snow in the north, and a
brief mix and potential for light icing in between. Some of the
smaller scale details still need to be worked out, including how
quickly we`re able to saturate and what the low level
temperature profiles look like. Current consensus suggests a
50-80% chance of precip northeast of the Norfolk/Omaha line by
midnight and a 20-50% chance southwest. After midnight, those
chances jump into the 70-90+% range area-wide. Now as for the
temperature profiles and precip type, still some minor
differences in surface low track and strength of low level warm
air advection. Most guidance suggests the low will track roughly
along the KS/OK border Saturday morning and push northeast into
MO by Saturday afternoon. Even small wobbles in this track will
make some pretty significant differences in precip type in
southern portions of the forecast area. In addition, some
guidance (e.g. 27.06Z NAM and 27.03Z RAP) suggests much stronger
warm air advection around 925 and 850 mb when compared to other
guidance. As a result, those models have a pretty deep
isothermal layer aloft that is just above freezing, while
surface temperatures remain near or below freezing in some
areas. Consequently, once precipitation develops, it would
likely be liquid and could lead to some light ice accumulation
before the entire column cools and we switch over to snow. While
there isn`t much guidance that shows this (10-20% chance of
occurring) , it is worth noting the potential for a light glaze
of ice developing before snow falls, especially as I-80 looks to
be squarely in the middle of this area.

Instead, the more likely scenario is that precipitation north
of I- 80 starts and stays as snow, while we see a "clean"
transition from rain to snow south of I-80 through late Saturday
morning into the afternoon as much colder air moves in. In
fact, that colder air could cause some of that rainfall on the
roads to "flash freeze" and lead to some icing as we switch over
to snow. So really, whether we see true freezing rain that
freezes as it hits the ground might be moot and either way a
thin layer of ice develops ahead of the snow for some. In
addition, winds will pick up and become northwesterly through
the day as the surface low passes by to our south and east.
Expect gusts mostly in the 25-35 mph range, with a few gusts
hitting 40 mph. It currently looks like the strongest winds will
arrive as the heaviest snow exits, so that should help a little
bit from a blowing snow/poor visibility standpoint. However,
the winds will be strong enough that blowing/drifting snow will
continue even after snowfall ends, which will lead to longer
cleanup times. Snow should completely exit east by midnight
Saturday night with winds tapering off shortly thereafter.
Currently expect final snowfall totals of 4- 7+ inches near and
northeast of a Norfolk to Omaha line with higher amounts as you
go farther into Iowa. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for
these areas. To the southwest, it`ll be more in the 1-3" range,
again with that potential for some light icing. Again, still
some details that need to be worked out that could have large
impacts on snowfall totals, including temperatures, system
track, exact start time, rain to snow transition time, so make
sure to monitor the forecast, especially if you have travel
plans. Regardless, it looks like there will be travel impacts in
much of the area Friday night through Saturday.

Once the system exits, we`ll be even colder, with highs on
Sunday and Monday in the teens to mid 20s and lows through
Tuesday morning in the single digits to lower teens. While winds
look relatively light, even a slight breeze will lead to sub-
zero wind chills these mornings. Temperatures should start to
creep back up into 30s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Regarding
additional precip chances, there`s still quite a bit of spread
in guidance in exact timing and track, but it looks like another
weaker system will move somewhere through the Plains late
Sunday night or Monday. Some solutions have associated
precipitation moving directly through the forecast area while
others have it staying almost completely north or completely
south. So forecast confidence on this particular system is low,
with consensus giving us about a 20-30% chance of seeing any
snow with it.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 442 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of
the forecast period. The period will start out with light
northerly winds, gradually shifting to easterly overnight and
eventually southeasterly late Friday morning. Winds will
increase in speed Friday afternoon, with southeasterly gusts of
20-25 kts in the final few hours of the forecast period. Winds
will continue to increase after the forecast period.

Snow chances (30% chance) move into the KOFK area Friday
morning (28/12-16Z), though confidence is too low in snowfall
reaching the ground to include in the TAF package at this time.
Towards the end and just after the forecast period, ceilings
will become overcast and decrease, with increasing chances for
snow at KOMA and KOFK, and a rain/snow mix towards KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to midnight CST Saturday
     night for NEZ015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for NEZ031-043>045-052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Friday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for NEZ011-012-017-018-032>034.
IA...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to midnight CST Saturday
     night for IAZ043-055-056.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for IAZ069-079-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fortin
AVIATION...Wood