350
FXUS63 KOAX 012315
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
515 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will taper off across southeast Nebraska and
  southwest Iowa this afternoon. Snow covered roads may become
  slick.

- Bitter cold returns Thursday morning, with lows below zero and
  afternoon highs only in the teens to low 20s.

- Temperatures will moderate slightly by Friday and Saturday,
  with highs returning to the 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tonight through Wednesday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depicts a
mid-level shortwave trough pivoting across the central Plains. This
features has brought snowfall to the area this morning, with
reported totals of 2.5-3 inches in southeast Nebraska, tapering off
northward. Light snow continues across southeast NE and southwest IA
as of 1 PM, which will continue to taper off through the afternoon.
Additional accumulations will be minimal, though minor travel
impacts may continue in this area. The resulting north-northwesterly
flow aloft, combined with a lingering snowpack, is holding afternoon
temperatures in the chilly low- to mid-20s, with overnight lows
expected to drop into the single digits. Some patchy fog may develop
Tuesday morning, mainly along and east of the Missouri River, but
model soundings suggest gusty winds above the surface, which should
limit fog to low-lying and wind protected areas.

As the trough shifts east, flow aloft becomes zonal on Tuesday,
allowing highs to climb into the 30s. Much of the area should
briefly reach or edge above freezing, and few breaks of sunshine
will help begin melting the existing snowpack. However, any melting
will refreeze overnight as lows fall back into the teens and 20s, so
watch for slick spots. Late Tuesday into early Wednesday, a
shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains may bring light
snow to northeast Nebraska. Current Pops peak around 15-20% with
most GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS members limiting accumulations to a
narrow 0.1-0.50" band across extreme northeast Nebraska. A few
ensemble members (about 15% of them) hold the snow together as far
south as the I-80 corridor, but the general consensus limits
measurable snow to northeast Nebraska. Impacts are expected to be
minimal, with QPF under 0.10" and essentially no ensemble support
for >1" of snow south of the NE/SD border.

Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 20 to low 30s, but
northerly winds gusting 20-30 mph will keep afternoon wind chills in
the teens to low 20s.

Thursday and Beyond...

Late Wednesday into early Thursday, an amplifying mid- to upper-
level trough over Manitoba/Ontario will drive a cold front southward
and enhance CAA into the area. This will send Thursday morning lows
into the 2 to 10 below zero range across eastern NE, and 10 to 15
below zero in western Iowa. Winds will be on the lighter side,
keeping morning wind chills in the 6 to 16 degree below zero range.
Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the teens and low 20s.

Temperatures moderate on Friday and Saturday, with highs rebounding
into the 30s as zonal to northwesterly flow returns aloft. Another
amplifying trough will then sweep a cold front through the region
late Saturday into early Sunday, bringing Sunday highs back down
into the 20s.

Long-range guidance suggests precipitation chances may return during
the weekend as a shortwave disturbance rotates around the larger
trough. However, long range solutions vary considerable on timing,
track and precipitation intensity. As a result, PoPs currently peak
at 15%, with adjustments likely as the system becomes better
resolved.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Clearing skies from west to east this evening with some patchy
fog possible along and east of the Missouri river. Chance of fog
impacting KOMA only around 10%. Otherwise, light winds out of
the southwest overnight becoming more southerly during the day
on Tuesday. VFR conditions expected to hold through the
remainder of the TAF period with occasional cigs moving through
above FL100.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...McCoy