538
FXUS63 KOAX 092303
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
503 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frigid temperatures persist through Monday, with morning wind
  chills in the single digits and afternoon highs in the 30s to
  low 40s.

- A gradual warm-up is expected this week, with highs climbing
  into the 50s and 60s, potentially reaching 70 by Friday and
  Saturday.

- Dry weather is expected to prevail through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow...

A frigid November afternoon is underway as a mid-level trough
amplifies over the Great Lakes region, bringing meridional flow
aloft locally. The resulting cold air advection has kept high
temperatures locked in the 30s, roughly 15 to 20 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Blustery northerly winds, gusting up
to 30 mph, are driving wind chills into the teens and 20s.

High pressure will build overhead this evening and tonight, easing
winds and clearing skies. The combination of calm conditions and
minimal cloud cover will allow temperatures to tumble into the
teens, with a few single-digit readings possible across northeast
NE. Morning wind chills will remain in the single digits across much
of the area, with values approaching zero in northeast NE. Another
chilly day is expected Monday, with afternoon highs only reaching
the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Tuesday and Beyond...

By Tuesday, a mid-level ridge currently centered over the Desert
Southwest will begin to build into the central Plains. This pattern
shift will bring a return to zonal to northwesterly flow aloft,
allowing temperatures to moderate. Highs will rebound into the 60s
for most areas on Tuesday, with temperatures generally holding in
the mid 50s to mid 60s through the rest of the week. Some spots may
even hit 70 on Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will remain
slightly above seasonable values, ranging from the mid 30s to mid
40s.

The week overall looks quiet and dry, with limited potential for
impactful weather. While a brief shortwave could bring isolated
light precipitation at some point, most areas will stay dry. The
primary thing to watch will be fire weather concerns, though no day
currently stands out as particularly dry and windy. The next chance
for widespread precipitation appears late next weekend, as a mid- to
upper-level trough break down the ridge and pushes a cold front
through the region. However, long-range guidance continues to show
notable differences in the timing and intensity of the system. For
now, 15-25% PoPs are carried Saturday night into Sunday, with higher
chances to the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 459 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Wind speeds this evening across all three TAF sites are settling
down, with speeds expected to drop below 10 kts within the first
hour of the period while staying steady directionally through
the night. A shallow layer of clouds may develop just above
FL030 during the mid-to-late morning hours, but coverage of
these clouds should not exceed FEW. A wind shift is also
expected to work into the area, first at KOFK late tomorrow
morning before arriving to KLNK and KOMA mid-afternoon, shifting
winds southwesterly to southerly with speeds of less than 10 kts
forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Petersen