136
FXUS63 KOAX 191725
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1225 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances continue every day through Saturday, especially
  across northern parts of the area. Severe storms are unlikely
  though.

- Temperatures will be much cooler today, but warming back up
  by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Temperatures this morning are noticeably cooler than those 24
hours prior... generally by about 15 degrees. Today`s high temps
will be cooler than Tuesday`s by about 15-20 degrees, leaving
A/C units a chance to catch their breaths.

The cold front responsible for last evening`s thunderstorm
activity is now just through the last reaches of southeast
Nebraska, though scattered showers continue on just this side of
MO/IA and MO/NE state lines.

With 700-250 hPa winds almost parallel with the front, expect
very little southeastern progression through the day today. The
number and intensity of showers developing on the front should
be lower than those of Tuesday night, but chance POPs are
warranted, especially along the front draped from about
Waterloo, IA to Topeka, KS which will include far southwest Iowa
and extreme southeast Nebraska. An uptick in activity this
afternoon will be diurnally driven with ML CAPE values managing
just over 1000 J/kg. With BWD at only about 20 knots, severe
weather is unlikely.

There will be plenty of moisture available with NAEFS mean
integrated WV transport well-above the June climatology as what
may be the first named tropical storm of the season (Alberto)
works toward southern Texas and the associated moisture rounds
the heat dome of the eastern CONUS. PWAT values will push to 2".
Highest QPF will happen after midnight with 1/2" possible in
the CWA`s ten most northernmost counties.

.THURSDAY...

The Southeast`s ridging builds west, pushing precip chances
farther north. High temps will range from near 80 along the SD
border to near 90 for locations close to Missouri.

.FRIDAY and the WEEKEND...

A surface low develops in the lee of the Rockies on Friday with
a warm front pushing north through eastern Nebraska. South of
the front, southerly winds will push temps into the lower 90s
and dewpoints close to 70. It`ll be hot and muggy with maximum
apparent temps pushing into the mid-90s. Severe weather is
possible west of here as the surface low pushes northeast and
the cold front pushes southeast.

The attendant cold front pushes through mid-day Saturday,
warranting chance POPs. Behind the wave, reduced temps (80s) and
dewpoints (lower 60s) with sunny skies should leave the day one
of the more pleasant of the forecast.

.NEXT WEEK...

Return flow develops quickly, pushing temps and humidity higher
for Monday and Tuesday which will leave the atmosphere capable
of unleashing more convection should an impulse find a path
towards the mid-Missouri Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Widely scattered light showers were ongoing as of 12 PM (17z)
across portions of eastern NE and southwest IA with a general
decrease in areal coverage noted over the past couple of hours.
While sprinkles or a brief shower are possible at KOMA and/or
KLNK this afternoon, the forecast will indicate dry conditions
at those two locations through Thursday morning. At KOFK,
showers will become increasingly likely late tonight into
Thursday morning. Otherwise, the main forecast challenge is
timing the onset of MVFR to IFR ceilings at the terminal
locations. Some models suggest the potential for a period of
MVFR ceilings late this afternoon at KOMA and KLNK, which have
been accounted for with a TEMPO group. Greater confidence in
MVFR and eventually IFR ceilings is tonight into Thursday
morning. Finally, winds will transition from northeast to east
or southeast tonight into Thursday morning at generally less
than 12 kt. A brief period of 12+kt winds is possible early this
afternoon at KOMA and KLNK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Mead