541
FXUS63 KOAX 291716
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1116 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some sleet, freezing drizzle, and freezing rain are still
  being reported this morning across portions of the region. The
  wintry mix will transition to all snow as the morning
  progresses.

- The heaviest snow is expected to occur within a snowband
  extending from southern Saline County through the Omaha metro
  and up into Harlan, Iowa. The highest snowfall amounts are
  expected in western Iowa while ice accumulations up to around
  one tenth of an inch are possible for areas along and south of
  a line from Seward to Lincoln to Clarinda.

- The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory remain in
  effect through tonight. Travel will be difficult today due to
  ongoing precipitation and the potential for some blowing snow.

- Expect the cold to continue through the start of next week.
  Monday will bring another chance for a few snow showers.
  Warmer weather will arrive Tuesday, sticking around through
  the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Surface analysis shows a low pressure system continuing to move
across Kansas and Oklahoma this morning, with warm air from the Gulf
advecting into the region. A wintry mix of precipitation continues
early this morning across the region, with snow, sleet, and freezing
rain/drizzle expected to continue. Early this morning, two bands of
snow have set up across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, sleet,
light freezing drizzle, or freezing rain reported between the bands
and toward the Nebraska/Missouri and Nebraska/Iowa borders. The
drizzle has left several areas with a glaze of ice on surfaces.

The northernmost band is associated with an area of frontogenesis
and has been increasing in intensity and coverage over the past few
hours. The band currently extends from Beaver Crossing and
Rising City through Valley up to Harlan and Tekamah. This band
will slowly move to the east while also filling in to the south.
This will eventually result in a transition from the freezing
drizzle to snow for the Omaha metro area. A second band of snow
extending from Wilber to Nebraska City to Shenandoah, Iowa has
also developed, associated with another area of frontogenesis.
Areas to the south of this band will continue to receive mixed
precipitation through the morning and possibly into early
afternoon. There is still some uncertainty in how much snow
areas south of the I-80 corridor will see due to transition time
with precipitation type. For areas along and south of a line
from Lincoln to Clarinda, 1 to 3 inches of snow are possible
through tonight. An isolated rumble of thunder may not be
entirely out of the question with the southern band as well.

Heading into the afternoon, precipitation is expected to taper off
from west to east. Most of the precipitation should be out of
Nebraska by 8pm and out of our Iowa counties before midnight. Winds
gusting as high as 35mph on the back side of this storm system will
cause some blowing snow across the region; however, the strongest
winds will not be co-located with the heavier snowfall. This will
limit the potential for blizzard conditions; however, the blowing
snow may result in some reductions to visibility and travel
difficulties.

The forecast remains on track with the highest snowfall amounts (5-7
inches of additional accumulation) occurring in the Harlan and
Missouri Valley areas, with lesser amounts heading to the west.
Areas south of I-80 may still receive up to around a tenth of an
inch of ice accumulation by the time this storm system has passed.
Expect difficult travel conditions through the day, with things
improving overnight into Sunday.

Bundle up if you plan on heading out the door Saturday night into
Sunday. Lows by Sunday morning will bottom out in the single digits
for areas north of Highway 92 and the low to mid-teens for areas
south. Wind chill values will fall to the single digits below zero
for most of us, with a few single digits above zero in extreme
southeastern Nebraska. Sunday high temperatures will be fairly cold,
reaching the teens for areas along and north of a line from Harlan,
Iowa to Columbus, Nebraska. Monday morning will be cold as well with
highs in the single digits to around 10 degrees for Lincoln and
areas north. Areas toward the Kansas/Nebraska/Missouri border can
expect temperatures in the low teens to around 15 degrees. Wind
chills will be mainly in the single digits.

Monday morning, a mid-level shortwave trough will cross central and
southern Kansas, bringing a 30-60% chance for some snow to eastern
Nebraska/western Iowa. Unlike the current storm, Monday`s event is
not expected to be mixed-phase precipitation, and should be all
snow. SLR values are currently forecasted to range from around 16:1
to 18:1, resulting in more of a powdery snow.

Tuesday through the end of the forecast period, northwest flow sets
up over the region. Expect some slightly warmer temperatures with
highs returning to the mid-20s to mid-30s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Expect a cool down again Wednesday night/Thursday morning, with lows
in the single digits above and below zero. Thursday`s high
temperatures will struggle into the teens for western Iowa and the
teens to low 20s for eastern Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

As of 11 AM (17z), the back edge of a moderate snow band extends
along a Fremont-Wahoo-Lincoln line. Extrapolation of current
motion would bring higher snow rates into KOMA between 18-19z
with decreasing rates and perhaps an end to the snow at KLNK
within the next hour or so. Snow rates are expected to decrease
at KOMA after 19z with improving visibilities. Some light snow
or flurries may persist at KOFK this afternoon, but visibilities
are expected to remain above 6SM.

While prevailing MVFR ceilings are forecast, visible satellite
data indicate cloud breaks occurring across south-central NE.
So, it`s not out of the question that periods of VFR conditions
could develop at KLNK later this afternoon. Finally, north-
northwest winds will strengthen markedly this afternoon with
gusts as high as 30-35 kt. The strong winds will continue
through this evening before diminishing overnight into Sunday
morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ012-015-
     018-032>034-044-045-052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ011-
     016-017-030-031-042-043-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ043-055-
     056-069.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW/Mead
AVIATION...Mead