042
FXUS63 KOAX 181724
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1124 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another storm system will move into the region Thursday
  through Friday, bringing a 20-50% chance for rain.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third
  system arrives on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Today through Wednesday...

Convection overperformed last night as midlevel lapse rates
steepened, producing abundant lightning and, in some locations,
piles of pea to nickel sized hail. Storms moved east of the forecast
area around midnight last night. Light patchy fog developed in a few
locations overnight, but was generally hampered by the light winds
that shifted to the northwest early this morning, as the surface low
moved east into Missouri.

Spotty showers and drizzle could sneak into the southern half of the
forecast area this morning, as cooler air wraps in behind the
departing system, but chances remain low, at less than 20 percent.
Any lingering rainfall will come to an end before noon today, though
skies will remain cloudy, keeping temperatures limited to the mid
40s north and mid 50s south.

Weak ridging builds over the nation`s midsection Wednesday,
maintaining dry conditions. Southwesterly flow on the western edge
of the ridge will pull temperatures back into the mid to upper 50s,
with a few locations reaching 60 in eastern Nebraska.

Wednesday Night and Beyond...

A shortwave will ripple through the region ahead of the next upper
low Wednesday night into Thursday. While more abundant moisture
should be relegated just to our south over southeastern Kansas and
Missouri, a few showers could skim far southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

The upper low will move from the southwestern CONUS into Kansas
Friday, bringing increasing precipitation chances to the southern
half of the forecast area. While a couple ensemble members still
hint at the potential for light snow sneaking in, the vast majority
indicate warm air in place, allowing rain to prevail.

Rain will likely exit the region by early Saturday, allowing dry
conditions to prevail through the weekend. The next low pressure
system will drift through the middle of the country early next week
bringing additional rain chances. High temperatures will remain in
the 50s this weekend, and early next week, after a brief dip into
the 40s on Friday.

Looking farther ahead toward Thanksgiving, numerous ensemble members
are continuing to hint at the potential for snow somewhere in the
region towards the end of next week, and into the beginning of the
following week. Which is worth noting as folks begin to make plans
for one of the busiest travel weekends of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Largely MVFR conditions with spotty dips into IFR conditions
start out the TAF period, with the main cloud layer generally at
or around FL010. Winds are out of the north at 10 kts or
slightly stronger, with the general expectation that those
speeds gradually slow over the course of the evening into the
overnight hours. As those speeds slow and patchy IFR ceilings
move in, some areas of fog or drizzle may try and develop
overnight, but as of now, there looks to be two areas across
south-central Nebraska and in northwest Iowa -- on either side
of the general KOFK/KOMA/KLNK area. Otherwise, conditions are
poised to begin improving by 16z tomorrow morning with ceilings
improving to above FL020 or entirely into VFR territory.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Petersen