795
FXUS63 KOAX 071109
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
509 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and warm today with high fire danger in parts of
  northeast Nebraska.

- Rain chances increase tonight and continue into Saturday
  night. Highest PoPs of 60-90% in northeast Nebraska and west-
  central Iowa. Some light snow could mix in Saturday evening,
  but no impacts are expected.

- Significantly colder temperatures are forecast Saturday night
  into Monday morning. Highs on Sunday in the 30s with overnight
  lows in the teens to 20s. Morning wind chills in the single
  digits to around 12.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Today:

A mid-level vorticity maximum over the northern High Plains
early this morning is expected to undergo slight amplification
as it progresses southeast through the mid-MO Valley later this
morning. An associated area of mid-level clouds over north-
central NE will move through our area prior to noon with a few
sprinkles possible. Increasing sunshine this afternoon will
allow temperatures to warm into the low/mid 60s, some 10 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Northwest winds will
strengthen on the backside of the mid-level wave, with gusts of
25-35 mph likely this afternoon. The warm temperatures coupled
with minimum RH of 25-30% and the gusty winds will lead to high
fire danger across portions of northeast NE this afternoon


Tonight through Saturday night:

A vigorous shortwave trough currently moving into British
Columbia and the Pacific Northwest will progress into the
northern Plains tonight before advancing through the mid-MO
Valley on Saturday. That mid-level system will be attended by a
double surface low structure that will move through our area on
Saturday. A significantly colder air mass is forecast to surge
into the region from the north late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night with the passage of the surface low to the
east/southeast.

Strengthening low/mid-level frontogenesis ahead of the surface
low and mid-level wave will support the development of rain
showers initially across northeast NE after midnight. Precipitation
coverage is expected to increase late tonight into Saturday
morning with the highest PoPs (60-90%) forecast across northeast
NE into west-central IA. An additional round of scattered
showers is possible (20-40% PoPs) Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night owing to steepening lapse rates and increased
forcing for ascent tied to the mid-level vorticity maximum
tracking through the area. Some light snow could mix in with the
rain Saturday evening into Saturday night (especially from
northeast NE into western IA), though no accumulation is
expected. Highest rainfall amounts of up to a quarter inch are
expected from parts of northeast NE into west-central IA.

Winds will strengthen from the northwest on Saturday with gusts
of 30-40 mph possible. The gusty winds are expected to continue
into Saturday night.

High temperatures on Saturday will be a function of cloud cover
and precipitation areal coverage with this forecast update
indicating readings in the 40s across northeast NE and western
IA and 50s in southeast NE. As mentioned above, a signficantly
colder air mass will overspread the region Saturday night with
lows in the teens and 20s and wind chills ranging from the
single digits above zero to around 12.


Sunday into Monday morning:

Building high pressure will maintain a continental polar air
mass across the region with Sunday afternoon highs in the 30s
and Monday morning lows in the teens. Wind chills in the single
digits above zero to around 12 are again expected.


Monday through Thursday:

An initially meridional, mid-level flow regime over the central
U.S. will become increasingly zonal this period as a deep
trough east of the MS Valley weakens and shifts east. That
pattern evolution will support a warming trend with daytime
highs returning to the 50s and 50s in the Tue-Thu timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. A weak disturbance moving into the area this morning is
contributing to increasing clouds in the FL090-120 layer, which
will linger through about 15z. A few sprinkles are possible
prior that time with the best chance at KLNK. Clouds will
diminish by late morning with northwest winds strengthening to
15-16 kt with gusts of 25-26 kt. The winds will diminish by
08/00z with clouds increasing again overnight. Rain shower
chances increase toward 08/12z at KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead