353
FXUS63 KOAX 080407
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1007 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries and light snow showers are possible (20-40% chance)
  this afternoon and early evening, mainly across northeast
  Nebraska.

- A brief warmup is expected Monday into Tuesday, with highs in
  the 30s on Monday, rising to the 40s and low 50s on Tuesday.

- Precipitation chances increase late Wednesday into Thursday
  (25-50%), followed by a return to cooler conditions by the
  end of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tonight through Tuesday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depicts a
broad, mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS, while riding continues to build into the western CONUS. At
the surface, a corridor of high pressure stretching from the
SD/ND/MN border into northeast NE is being pushed eastward as a
shortwave disturbance pushes into central NE/SD. Ahead of the wave,
continued CAA and mostly cloudy skies has kept afternoon highs in
the chilly 20s. The passage of the wave later this afternoon
into early evening will bring a chance for light snow, with PoPs
ranging from 20-40%. Forcing for ascent is strongest along the
NE/SD border and diminishes to the south, so light snow chances
decrease moving into southeast NE and southwest IA. QPF remains
limited, generally under 0.05", so accumulations are expected to
be a light. A dusting is most likely, though a narrow swath in
northeast Nebraska could approach a quick 0.5" (20% chance). The
primary impact will be a few slick spots and minor reductions
in visibility under any snow showers that are able to hold
together.

Following the wave`s passage, surface winds will shift to southerly,
allowing warmer air to return to the region. A shift to zonal to
northwesterly flow aloft will also support some additional downslope
warming. Cloud cover will begin to break up and improve overnight,
allowing radiational cooling to bring overnight lows in the teens
and wind chills in the single digits. Monday afternoon highs will
climb into the 30s and low 40s. The warming trend will continue into
Tuesday, with highs reaching the 40s and potentially the low 50s in
east-central Nebraska. The upper-level pattern will remain active,
but any significant wave passages and associated precipitation will
largely remain north and east of the area. A clipper system passing
to the our north from midday Tuesday into early Wednesday will
tighten the surface pressure gradient, producing northwesterly wind
gusts of 30-35+ mph.

Wednesday and Beyond...

A pattern shift is expected Wednesday into Thursday as a shortwave
disturbance pivots around the larger eastern CONUS trough and moves
into the region, bringing a ribbon of enhanced vorticity and
frontogenesis. Highs will dip into the 30s on Wednesday as
precipitation chances increase late Wednesday into Thursday,
with PoPs of 25-50% in place. Precipitation is likely to begin
as a rain/snow mix before transitioning to all snow. GEFS and
EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble members are generally in agreement of a
1-2" band of snow tracking from the Dakotas into eastern NE,
though confidence is lower for how far south the band will
reach, as the strongest forcing for ascent remains to the north.
Ensemble guidance indicates a 20-40% probability of 1" of snow
across northeast Nebraska, decreasing to around 10% along the
I-80 corridor.

Behind this system, a second surge of cool Arctic air will settle in
under strong north-northwesterly flow aloft, pushing Friday and
Saturday highs down into the teens across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1007 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Light snow band is exiting the area, with MVFR cigs expected to
hold through the next several hours. Models have cigs continuing
to gradually sink at KOMA and KLNK to IFR towards 12Z while we
start to see the low clouds clear out at KOFK around that same
time. It will take a while for the low clouds to clear at KOMA
and KLNK, though they will get increasingly broken through the
morning, with low clouds finally clearing out toward 17-18Z. Gut
says this timing may be a little late, so potential for clearing
as early as 15-16Z, but put timing from latest model guidance
into the TAF. Once low clouds clear out, expect VFR conditions
through the remainder of the TAF period with southerly winds
becoming more southwesterly toward the afternoon at KOFK and
KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...McCoy