836
FXUS63 KOAX 060503
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1103 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as snow and
  some ice moves through. The highest potential for at least 1"
  will be northeast of a Niobrara to Red Oak line (50-70%
  chance).

- Breezy winds that gust to 25-35 mph will join the snow/ice
  Saturday, further reducing visibilities.

- Highs next week will continue to be a roller coaster; cold
  Sunday, much warmer Tue/Wed, before falling back below normal
  Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features northwesterly flow that
is pouring in from the Pacific Northwest before becoming zonal for
the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Warm temperatures have been
creeping in from the west this afternoon behind a wind shift,
helping highs into the lower 40s to upper 30s that should aid in
clearing some of the minor snowpack in place. Steeper lapse rates in
the low-to-mid levels have been consistent in soundings this
afternoon, and are apparent in satellite imagery as some texture
begins to develop at the cloud top level, signaling increasing
chances for a few showers that will move quickly across
northeast Nebraska before diminishing by the time they reach the
NE/IA border through 8 or 9 PM. Initially, anything that does
fall will be rain, with increasing chances for some ice to join
in as we get later into the evening and as showers push into the
cooler eastern half of the forecast area. Overall amounts
should be only a trace, but could provide some slick spots on
untreated surfaces. This evening into the overnight hours,
temps will be bottoming out in the teens and twenties as gusts
diminish, gradually shifting southeasterly pre- dawn in
anticipation of tomorrow`s weather maker.

The shortwave currently situated over southern British Columbia will
approach the forecast area Saturday morning, helping to strengthen a
surface low that travels from west-to-east from Nebraska into Iowa.
The combination of strong warm aid advection, positive
vorticity advection, and frontogenesis will be plenty of
forcing to develop a north-to-south oriented band of
precipitation that will be a combination of rain to the south,
snow to the north, and some ice that has to first overcome dry
air before reaching the ground. The amount of forcing will be
more than enough to do just that, with the latter part of the
day having cooler temperatures and increase snow potential when
the band pushes into Iowa.

Timing out when precipitation is expected to start, things
should begin hitting the ground close to 10 AM in northeast
Nebraska arriving to Lincoln by 2 PM, and Omaha 2-3 PM. The
general footprint for the rain/snow will become more narrow as
you move south, with Omaha and Lincoln only expected to see
rain/a few flakes for around 2 hours or less before the band has
already shifted east. Farther north, it`ll be much wider and
allow for increased accumulation potential for that reason and
because of the cooler temperatures. By 8 PM Saturday,
precipitation should have cleared the area as it pushes across
Iowa. One complicating factor will be gusty winds that will
range from 25-35 mph at their peak and will further reduce
visibilities and increase wet bulbing wherever it is possible.

Recent model runs continue to tighten up the placement of snowfall
accumulations, with the corridor of highest snowfall steering
largely clear of the forecast area in favor of far eastern
South Dakota and IA/MN (meaning those traveling north on I-29
should be ready for travel difficulties). A Winter Weather
Advisory is in place along and north of a line from Niobrara to
Harlan, where the best chance to see 2" or more exists
(currently (50-60% chance). Going two to three counties to the
north east will increase snowfall totals to 4-6" or more very
quickly, making regional travel difficult heading north or east.
Omaha and Lincoln are going to miss out on any meaningful
snowfall accumulation, but untreated surfaces that could still
be we will freeze overnight as temperatures fall into the single
digits and teens.

Sunday and Beyond:

For the latter half of the weekend we`ll be right back in the ice
box that we just climbed out of, with highs only mustering teens and
twenties with a few minor flurries possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours because of steep lapse rates that nose
into the DGZ. Fortunately the cold will be short-lived, as
southwesterly winds bring warmth for Monday and Tuesday, the latter
of which has temps topping out in the upper 40s and low 50s. This
warmth will also be short-lived as another system moving through the
persistently northwesterly flow ushers a winter system through the
upper Mississippi Valley. While this system is set to miss us at
this time, another sheared-out wave will be poised to follow in it`s
footsteps and more southerly, being the next chance for snowfall
for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Models are less confident in the coverage of fog developing
overnight than with the earlier forecast package, likely due to
increasing cloud cover from the northwest. Still think there is
a 40% chance of fog impacting KOMA and KLNK so went ahead and
left in a shorter period of fog than the previous TAF package.
With this shorter period, we`ll likely see fog clear out before
any stratus moves in with the storm system arriving midday
today, keeping cigs VFR for longer. Still think cigs are going
to tank at KOFK later this morning where more widespread
snowfall is expected, but likely won`t see MVFR cigs move into
KOMA until between 19-21Z. Once low cigs move in, though, we
should see cigs lower to IFR towards this evening once winds
shift to northerly. KLNK will stay VFR most of the TAF period as
precip and low clouds likely won`t make it that far south, but
once the winds shift to northerly, expect low clouds to move
into KLNK toward the end of the TAF period as well.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     NEZ011-012-015-018.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...McCoy