268
FXUS63 KOAX 042132
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
332 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as some
  snow moves through. The highest potential for at least 1" will
  be northeast of a Norfolk to Omaha line (40-70% chance).

- High temperatures over the next week will generally be in the
  30s and 40s, but Sunday will be colder, with highs in the
  teens to mid 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Early afternoon analysis showed an upper level trough axis
passing through the area while surface high pressure was sitting
over IA/IL/MO. In addition, a surface warm front was
approaching from the west and will give us relief from the cold,
with the mid 30s-40s behind it progged to move into the
forecast area on Friday. A few pieces of short term guidance
also suggest we could see some patchy fog develop along the
front as it pushes through late tonight/early Friday. By late
morning/early afternoon Friday, some weak shortwave energy will
be passing by to our north with associated snow falling across
SD/MN. Most guidance suggests any accumulation will stay to our
north, though a few pieces of short term guidance show some
showery precip near a cold front progged to pass through Friday
afternoon. If these develop, could see some brief snow or even
sleet showers given the convective nature depicted by various
CAMs. However, model soundings don`t show much in the way of
instability and saturated layers are fairly shallow, so
confidence in them occurring is on the lower side (5-10%
chance).

Attention then turns to snow chances Saturday into early
Sunday. Some shortwave energy currently over the Gulf of Alaska
will push toward the Rockies by Saturday morning while a surface
low spins up over eastern WY and eventually pushes through NE
and KS Saturday afternoon/evening. Guidance is in pretty good
agreement that a band of frontogenesis and snow sets up
somewhere over SD/NE/IA, though still some differences in exact
track with EPS members generally a little farther northeast than
other guidance. As it stands, consensus gives areas northeast
of a Norfolk to Omaha line about a 40-70% chance of at least 1".
The heaviest snow would likely fall Saturday afternoon into the
evening and come to an end by sunrise on Sunday. Expect some
slick spots in these areas, as well as potential for some
reduced visibility with wind gusts of 20-25 mph at times.

Farther south, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with
guidance good warm air advection across southeast NE into
southwest IA. As a result, model soundings show fairly deep low
level saturation with lack of in-cloud ice at times, suggesting
potential for some drizzle. With surface temperatures hovering
right around freezing, some ice accumulation could occur, but
still lots of smaller scale details to work out and just 1
degree could make a pretty big difference, so confidence in this
is quite low.

We`ll be quite cold again behind the precip, with highs on
Sunday in the teens to mid 20s as surface high pressure builds
in. Lows that night will be a little more questionable as the
high pushes east and southerly flow/warm air advection return.
Currently have lows in single digits above and below 0, coolest
over west-central IA, but if that warm air advection ramps up
quicker and we get some resulting cloud cover, we could end up
several degrees warmer. We`ll then trend warmer to start next
week with highs in the upper 20s and 30s Monday followed by
upper 30s and 40s Tuesday. Guidance is in decent agreement that
another system tracks through the Plains sometime Tuesday night
or Wednesday, though still lots of spread on timing and track.
For now, have a 15-20% chance of precip (rain and snow), but
overall confidence is pretty low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

MVFR ceilings expected to stick around at OFK through the
afternoon, with guidance remaining persistent that it clears out
by this evening. Currently expect ceilings to stay west of LNK
and OMA, but will need to closely monitor trends. Otherwise,
winds will be southerly to southwesterly around 10-12 kts with a
few gusts of 18-22 kts this afternoon, before slowing a bit this
evening. Also expect some low level wind shear at OMA and LNK
this evening, with 40 kt southwesterly to westerly winds at
around 1500 ft agl.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA